toldailytopic: Are we out of the recession or is the worst still yet to come?

[Nathon Detroit]

I could be wrong, but I believe that the economy's health is indicated by spending associated with the people. The government spending can and does effect that, but I don't think that the economy is healthy unless the populous personal spending is healthy. Even if the populous is forced into no longer using credit, unless their debts are eliminated, they are still slaves and the economy is unhealthy.

Of course, I'm not up on economics, I just think that the big picture is no different than the little picture.

I wonder about things like...

- Unemployment rates.
- GNP
- New housing starts
- Business startups
- Mortgage foreclosure rates

Seems like those factors might be good indicators as to how an economy is performing.

 

[Nathon Detroit]

this thread won't last long

who wants to talk about what might happen?

Then talk about what IS happening.

 

[The Berean]

What exactly is an economic "collapse"? Does that mean that the super market will be empty, the gas pumps dry, and money will be useless?

 

[WandererInFog]

I wonder about things like...

- Unemployment rates.
- GNP
- New housing starts
- Business startups
- Mortgage foreclosure rates

Seems like those factors might be good indicators as to how an economy is performing.

The problem is that, to a degree, the gov't (or in the case of foreclosure rates, the banks) has ways of messing with how the numbers are calculated in order to make things seem better than they really are.

For example, the only reason they've been able to keep the official unemployment rate under 10% is because back in 1994 we changed how unemployment statistics were calculated and after a certain number of months as people give up looking for employment, they then remove them from the calculation. If were to actually count those long-term discouraged workers as well, unemployment is actually 22%.

 

[madman]

What exactly is an economic "collapse"? Does that mean that the super market will be empty, the gas pumps dry, and money will be useless?

It means you are working while the government, an illegal immigrant, and your unemployed neighbor are on a cruise to the Bahamas

 

[elohiym]

I hear some folks saying the DOW is going to climbing slowly from here on out. Other folks are saying there is still another bubble yet to burst and it's gonna be very painful.

I wonder which opinion is more likely to be valid?

I don't know, but here's some information that may help. My father-in-law works in the financial district in New York; he's in a service industry that caters to top-level financial executives. After the bubble burst in 2007 ( or whenever it officially did), his business started going downhill. Now, it's starting to pick back up; and he believes that a recovery is in progress based on his increased business and the conversations he is privy to with financial executives.

Will the recovery last, or be quick? :idunno:

 

[chrysostom]

Then talk about what IS happening.

the country is bankrupted
and
one or more of the following will happen

we will run out of sources to borrow money

we will default on our debt

we will have serious inflation

and

that is the good news

the bad news is there could be deflation
which
will bring the economy to a halt real fast

 

[chrysostom]

I wonder about things like...

- Unemployment rates.
- GNP
- New housing starts
- Business startups
- Mortgage foreclosure rates

Seems like those factors might be good indicators as to how an economy is performing.

up
down
down
down
up

 

[elohiym]

we will run out of sources to borrow money

Not a chance. The Federal Reserve Bank claims banks create the money when they make loans. As long as a gullible world populace believes that banks can legally create money from thin air, we will never run our of sources to borrow money.

we will default on our debt

I wish. It would lead to prosperity.

we will have serious inflation

Deposit expansion and contraction cause inflation and deflation respectively. In other words, they are governed by the banking system.

 

[chrysostom]

Not a chance. The Federal Reserve Bank claims banks create the money when they make loans. As long as a gullible world populace believes that banks can legally create money from thin air, we will never run our of sources to borrow money.



I wish. It would lead to prosperity.




Deposit expansion and contraction cause inflation and deflation respectively. In other words, they are governed by the banking system.

you sound like a banker
and
didn't you guys get us into this mess?

 

[Ktoyou]

The stock market will be inversely bimodal, yet gains will be in the long-run. Buy low, or invest is bonds.

 

[elohiym]

you sound like a banker

Nope, just someone who discovered that he was being swindled by some banks. I educated myself to stop them and prevent that from happening again.

and
didn't you guys get us into this mess?

The bankers sure did get us into this mess. But nobody cares enough to stop them from continuing to do what got us into this mess. And how would they stop it, especially if most don't even understand what is going on?

I mean, until people wake up to the obvious fact that banks cannot create money out of thin air legally, that money creation really amounts to fraud on the borrower, the game will continue and losers will increase.

 

[Ktoyou]

The problem is that, to a degree, the gov't (or in the case of foreclosure rates, the banks) has ways of messing with how the numbers are calculated in order to make things seem better than they really are.

For example, the only reason they've been able to keep the official unemployment rate under 10% is because back in 1994 we changed how unemployment statistics were calculated and after a certain number of months as people give up looking for employment, they then remove them from the calculation. If were to actually count those long-term discouraged workers as well, unemployment is actually 22%.

You have a good point; however, this figure is also false, as it represents those out of the workforce.

 

[chrysostom]

it was just announced that the federal reserve will buy 18 billion in government debt
so
what does that mean?

if you had a 25000 credit card debt
how
would I go about buying it?

if I loaned you the money, you would be still in debt
so
I would have to give you the money in order to 'buy your debt'

so where does he federal government get this 18 billion?

just print it
but
don't tell us that

 

[elohiym]

it was just announced that the federal reserve will buy 18 billion in government debt
so
what does that mean?

It means the Federal Reserve Bank will exchange their IOU (a bank liability) for 18 billion in government bonds. What gives the bank's IOU value is the 18 billion in government bonds. Therefore, in essence, the Federal Reserve Bank gets the bonds for free, as odd as that may sound. Then our government uses bank IOUs as money, like a person uses casino chips in a casino. Get it?

if you had a 25000 credit card debt
how
would I go about buying it?

The bank securitizes all their credit card loans and then Wall Street sells the securities to investors.

so where does he federal government get this 18 billion?

just print it
but
don't tell us that

They don't just print it. First, they exchange the bank liability (IOU) for the asset (bonds), as I explained above. And currency is only a small part of the money supply.

 

[Memento Mori]

I mean, until people wake up to the obvious fact that banks cannot create money out of thin air legally, that money creation really amounts to fraud on the borrower, the game will continue and losers will increase.

Inflation is quite a game. Regulation tends to be much easier.

 

[chrysostom]

It means the Federal Reserve Bank will exchange their IOU (a bank liability) for 18 billion in government bonds. What gives the bank's IOU value is the 18 billion in government bonds. Therefore, in essence, the Federal Reserve Bank gets the bonds for free, as odd as that may sound.



The bank securitizes all there credit card loans and then Wall Street sells the securities to investors.




They don't just print it. First, they exchange the bank liability (IOU) for the asset (bonds), as I explained above. And currency is only a small part of the money supply.

thanks mr. banker
but
no one knows what you are talking about

is it a loan or is it a gift?

 

[elohiym]

Inflation is quite a game. Regulation tends to be much easier.

Not sure I get what you mean. :idunno:

Regulation or deregulation, the underlying scam has been the same for a very long time.

 

[elohiym]

thanks mr. banker

You're welcome, Satan.

Oh, you're not Satan? Well, I'm not a banker, and think about as much of them. Get it?

but
no one knows what you are talking about

Actually, several people over the years have come to understand the banking problem better because they could understand what I was explaining. Granted, I understand the subject matter is difficult to grasp...and easy to twist.

is it a loan or is it a gift?

Are you sure you don't understand, because that was a brilliant question.

It was neither a gift nor loan. It was theft. The bank's bookkeeping entries and the loan contract prove it...every time.

 

[TomO]

thanks mr. banker
but
no one knows what you are talking about

is it a loan or is it a gift?

Neither....it's a shell game. lain: