NFL 2017

[Nihilo]

I think you still have to give Philly the edge over the field, but there are certainly teams that can challenge. NO for instance. The Rams, depending.

In the tournament, you can't count out Philly, NO, the Rams, Minnesota, Seattle, Atlanta, or Carolina. None of these teams are gimmes for anybody, and the tournament is going to be some combination of teams from this group. That to me is drama, I'm looking forward to it.

I think they're in about the same position as Philly. But it's easier to have faith in Bill and Tom than in the newcomers to be sure.

Maybe head to head, but not in their conference, I disagree. NE is the favorite, even if they play the AFC championship on the road; and Philly is not, not after last night; if they were to face Seattle in the tournament, you can't predict Philly wins that one. And that's true for the rest of the teams in that list too, Philly looks great, but they've beat exactly one .500+ team so far. NE against any AFC opponent at this point, you can predict NE wins. Seattle in Philly, yeah that's a steeper slope for them, but they played out of their skulls yesterday and if they can do that again, they'll still edge out Philly even in Philly.

On a given day you have several spoilers in the AFC. Most of them in the West, and the line of demarcation is stronger than in the NFC.

None of those teams are concerning for NE. Jacksonville and Tennessee are bigger threats---even Baltimore, and of course Pittsburgh. But NE is still the favorite to be the AFC's rep in the SB, and you can't say the same about any of the NFC contenders right now.

 

[Town Heretic]

First off, thanks to the Bengals for pushing me to a 13-3 week against the line. :thumb:

In the tournament, you can't count out Philly, NO, the Rams, Minnesota, Seattle, Atlanta, or Carolina. None of these teams are gimmes for anybody, and the tournament is going to be some combination of teams from this group.

Seems about right, though I don't want to read too much into one less than stellar Eagles performance.

That to me is drama, I'm looking forward to it.

Agreed.

Maybe head to head, but not in their conference, I disagree. NE is the favorite, even if they play the AFC championship on the road; and Philly is not, not after last night; if they were to face Seattle in the tournament, you can't predict Philly wins that one.

Chances are they won't be on the road and the Rams game should give more insight into the Eagles after a tough loss.

And that's true for the rest of the teams in that list too, Philly looks great, but they've beat exactly one .500+ team so far.

Fewer than half the NFC is over .500. Same for the NFC, I think. And that either means there aren't many good teams OR there are a lot of teams that can beat you on a given Sunday. Or a mix of those...really separated the wheat with that one, didn't I. :chuckle:

Philly beat the Chiefs when they were playing good ball. They've beaten a good Washington team twice and Carolina isn't a bad win. They hung 51 on that Denver defense. They didn't look like a train wreck in the loss and most of what went wrong is correctable. Seattle played solid defense and they can really use the home crowd to advantage against less experienced opponents. Again, to my mind (at least at this point) that's what gives NE an edge in perception. I mean, who have most of NE's wins come against? NO early, when the Saints weren't playing any defense. A three pointer over Houston and a three point loss to Carolina.

The Pats will get their test when they go on the road to play Pittsburgh, but I have them a solid road fav. Part of the Eagle's problem will be that four of the top five teams right now (and there's a big drop off after five, are NFC teams. The Pats closest competition is probably the Steelers and I have them an five point dog at home. That said, there are few really bad teams as it sits and at least 12 teams that are playing at playoff level. That's pretty good. And Green Bay is close to that without their qb. If they can hang on a game or two and Aaron is ready, that might make it even harder in the NFC.

NE against any AFC opponent at this point, you can predict NE wins.

Agreed.

Seattle in Philly, yeah that's a steeper slope for them, but they played out of their skulls yesterday and if they can do that again, they'll still edge out Philly even in Philly.

I don't agree with that. To me it's a confluence, at least from what I've seen so far. Philly is the better team and it took a great home performance by Seattle against a mediocre Philly output to make the upset. I don't see anything like that happening at Philly and I doubt Seattle will get them visiting come playoffs.

None of those teams are concerning for NE. Jacksonville and Tennessee are bigger threats---even Baltimore, and of course Pittsburgh. But NE is still the favorite to be the AFC's rep in the SB, and you can't say the same about any of the NFC contenders right now.

I think Philly still has to be the favorite, with NO threatening and the Rams about to make their play. Seattle is behind that pack, but in the mix.

 

[tetelestai]

The Pats will get their test when they go on the road to play Pittsburgh

A few weeks ago, the Steeler's defense was ranked #2, looked promising, and there was a glimmer of hope, that just maybe, they could stop Brady and the Patriots.

Then their best corner (Joe Haden) broke his leg, then the defense slipped down to #4, and then last night the best player on their defense, their defensive captain - Ryan Shazier, was taken to the hospital by ambulance.

It doesn't look good for when the Steeler's play the Patriots on Dec 17th, or if they were to face them in the playoffs.

IMO, the only team that has ever had success against the Patriots in the playoffs, without Peyton Manning as their QB, is the Baltimore Ravens. That's the team I think the Patriots don't want to see in the playoffs.

 

[tetelestai]

I think Philly still has to be the favorite

I agree.

When it comes to West Coast teams playing East Coast teams in the playoffs, the team with the home field has a huge advantage.

Philly would play a lot different in Philadelphia, and Seattle would play a lot different 3,000 miles & 4 time zones away from home.

 

[tetelestai]

Let's look at who Brady and the Patriots have lost to in the postseason (since 2001)

2005 - lost to Denver 27-13, Jake Plummer was the QB
2006 - lost to Indy 38-34, Peyton Manning was the QB
2007 - lost to the Giants 17-14, Eli Manning was the QB
2009 - lost to the Ravens 33-14, Joe Flacco was the QB
2010 - lost to the Jets 28-21, Mark Sanchez was the QB
2011 - lost to the Giants 21-17, Eli Manning was the QB
2012 - lost to the Ravens 28-13, Joe Flacco was the QB
2013 - lost to Denver 26-16, Peyton Manning was the QB
2015 - lost to Denver 20-18, Peyton Manning was the QB

So, as we see above, the only QB to beat Brady and the Patriots more than once in the postseason, without his last name being "Manning", was Joe Flacco.

Also,

In 2011, the Patriots barely beat the Ravens in the AFC Championship Game 23-20. The Ravens dropped a game winning TD pass in the final seconds, then missed a chip shot field goal to tie the game.

In 2014, the Patriots once again barely beat the Ravens in a divisional game 35-31. The Patriots trailed in the second half, and a couple trick plays is how they were able to win.

All four of the Ravens/Patriots postseason games were played in New England. So, Joe Flacco and the Ravens are not only 2-2 at New England in the playoffs, but also played the Patriots tough even in the two losses.

 

[Town Heretic]

Didn't have time to post on the games this week, but things are going pretty well. On the strength of the day so far I've moved into the top percentile on ESPN's Pigskin pick'em, or 100%, ranked 553.

In Progress

Fans of the Indianapolis Colts (Spread)

100

553

Here's how it shook out.

1. NO @ Atl: the Saints were a .5 favorite going into Atlanta. I liked them by 4, but a really peculiar game had me starting out in a hole. 0-1 :mmph:

2. Ind @ Buf: the Bills were favored by 3.5 and I liked them by 5. A six point win evened the field for me. 1-1

3. Chi @ Cin: Aa 6.5 line made me nervous, but not enough to move off of it, sadly, as the Bengals came unglued and the Bears looked like actual bears playing people in the trenches. 1-2 :mmph:

4. GB @ Cle: the Pack was a 6.5 fav. I thought that felt generous to the Browns, but for a while the Browns looked like they might upset the applecart. Then they remembered who they weren't. 2-2

5. Dal @ Gia: the Cowboys were only a 4.5 fav going in, which given the upheavals in New York surprised me. The outcome didn't. 3-2

6. Det @ TB: the Lions were a 3.5 fav in a game they needed. I liked this one by a fg and suspected the Bucs might win outright. They didn't, but it was and that's good enough. 4-2

7. Oak @ KC: the Chiefs were favored by 3.5. I saw the likely score 25-18 in KC's favor, so I was all over that line and the chance for a turnaround by the Chiefs. Final? 26-15. 5-2

8. Min @ Car: the Vikings rode into town a slight fav. at 2.5. I liked Carolina by around 6. They won by 7. 6-2

9. SF @ Hou: Houston was a 2.5 fav. It looks like something might be happening with the new crew in Frisco, but I can't say I saw it this week. 6-3 :mmph:

10. Jets @ Den: the Jests were a .5 fav. I liked Denver at home and narrowly. It wasn't narrow, but it was a Denver win. Good enough. 7-3

11. Ten @ Arz: the Titans were a 2.5 fav. I had less confidence in their consistency and rode a hunch. 8-3

12. Was @ SD (I know): a 6.5 line for the Chargers felt anemic to me. I had the likely score 17-30 for the Chargers. Final? 13-30 9-3

13. Sea @ Jac: Seattle as a 2.5 favorite seemed reasonable enough and enough to draw me in even without a lot of confidence. 10-3

In progress or later:

14. Phi @ Rams: the Rams are a 2.5 fav at home. I had them winning by a point, so I took Philly. With Wentz out I'm not sure how this one will go, but so far it's where I need it. EDIT: Huzzah! 11-3

Late games: I'm riding the upset gamble late. Because when you're 11-3 you can afford to.

15. Bal @ Pit: the Steelers are a 5.5 fav. I like them to win but Baltimore to make it harder and keep it closer in a 22 - 25.

EDIT: more points and a little closer, but Steelers win and Baltimore keeps it tight. 12-3

16. Mia @ NE: the Pats are a 11 pt favorite. I have them winning by 5 to 7 so I'm going with yet another upset here. We'll see.

 

[drbrumley]

There's going to be some big fines and suspensions arising from the Sea/Jax game

 

[Town Heretic]

There's going to be some big fines and suspensions arising from the Sea/Jax game

:thumb: Should be. There were some stupid penalties in a few games today.

I was actually pleasantly surprised by the strength of the Jags' play and disappointed by an uncharacteristic number of Wilson picks.

 

[tetelestai]

Ok, TH...

The Patriots are 3 point favorites against the Steelers in Pittsburgh.(assuming nothing unusual happens in tonight's Patriot's game)

Before you pick, some facts:

In the Roethlisberger era, the Steelers have been home dogs just 12 times. They are 8-3-1 against the spread, and 8-4 straight up.

3 of those 12 games in which they were home dogs, were to the Patriots. However, Roethlisberger is 2-0 at home against the Patriots as a dog, the 1 loss as a dog to the Patriots, was when Landry Jones was the QB for the Steelers.

IOW, Roethlisberger has never lost at home to the Patriots as a dog.

I look forward to seeing who you pick

 

[tetelestai]

Also,

When's the last time you saw an 11-2 team as a home dog?

 

[Nihilo]

The biggest thing going against Pittsburgh against NE, is that if NE plays poorly, they'll play better than Pittsburgh would, if Pittsburgh plays poorly. I've got the Pats scoring 38 pts against Pittsburgh, and Pittsburgh scoring 37 against NE. If NE misses that estimate, they'll still score 24 or more, but if Pittsburgh is off, they could score as few as 14, and against how the NE defense is looking right now, Pittsburgh has a steeper hill, or a taller wall to climb over than NE does against Pittsburgh's D.

 

[Nihilo]

If you were to disregard all the rest of Brady's performances, and judge his career based upon only his 16 games played in Miami, nobody would consider Brady for the hall of fame. No one would have even heard of Tom Brady. 7-9 in Miami; downright pedestrian. Tonight is unsurprising.

 

[Jerry Shugart]

As much as I hate to admit it, at this point in time I consider that the Steelers are the best team in the NFL and should beat NE next Sunday. They will also win the Super Bowl unless the Cowboys somehow manage to sneak into the playoffs. Then with Zeke back they will beat the Steelers in the Super Bowl.

But even if the Cowboys win out and end up 10-6 they probably won't make the play-offs.

 

[Nihilo]

As much as I hate to admit it, at this point in time I consider that the Steelers are the best team in the NFL and should beat NE next Sunday. They will also win the Super Bowl unless the Cowboys somehow manage to sneak into the playoffs. Then with Zeke back they will beat the Steelers in the Super Bowl.

But even if the Cowboys win out and end up 10-6 they probably won't make the play-offs.

The NFC is really good this year.

 

[Town Heretic]

So, calling Miami right against the line, in conjunction with a really solid year of prognosticating finds me ranked 369th and in the top 1% of ESPN's Pigskin Pick'em contest this year.

I'm not going to say the upset wasn't surprising. The current Miami coach had gone 0-3 against NE prior to this win. The Pats are a much better team. A well taken 11.5 line in favor of the Pats and the near 70% takers among people who do well calling games speaks to the contrary. I don't recall reading anyone outside of Fin nation who declared it a likely eventuality prior to the ball being snapped. So it was an exceptional game.

I had it much closer, accounting for my win, but I still thought NE would prevail by...likely score 20-15 in New England's favor. And that's what makes calling a line challenging. A decent team can beat a better one on a given night and you have to allow for it, not get caught up in sentiment, even the sort largely produced by objective records. You have to know how to address the probabilities and view the game detatched from inclination. If you manage it you'll still end up surprised often enough to keep you wary (see: Chi @ Cin).

Against that defense on the road and with the limitations imposed by juvenile tactics on the part of his pressure valve at receiving I had Tom and company coming up with a modest 20 points and that's what they managed. Howard's second pick on Tom was a remarkably good play and one that could have as easily ended with a Pat's td and now one looking cross-eyed at Tom. Cutler had one of those nights that he's capable of having against anyone if they don't play aggressively enough and bring consistent pressure. I think they had two sacks and one was a coverage sack. Not getting it done against Cutler.

So the real surprise was the disappointing play of the New England defense. They surrendered the line. The New England sky isn't falling. They're still the darling of the AFC, but as with Philly, they're mortal.

Right now I only have 3 AFC teams in the top 10 NFL teams playing. NE is my highest rated among AFC teams in that mix and they're third overall. I'd have NE a 3 pt dog to Philly at a neutral site and adding Gronk back into the mix, right now. So the Pats need to tighten a few bolts if they're going to win the SB, assuming they don't get caught short of that. Philly retains a slim 1 pt advantage over NO at a neutral field at present.

There are enough tough games left on the schedule for a handful of teams to see movement up and down the power rankings. No one is a lock at this point. Not even the Pats and Eagles.

 

[Nihilo]

I'd have NE a 3 pt dog to Philly at a neutral site and adding Gronk back into the mix, right now. So the Pats need to tighten a few bolts if they're going to win the SB, assuming they don't get caught short of that. Philly retains a slim 1 pt advantage over NO at a neutral field at present.

Philly is hurt, probably insurmountably, without Wentz, no doubt about it. I don't see how you come up with your numbers, given that you have very limited data on his backup under center. They're probably at least 10 points down every game from here out, as compared to with Wentz play-calling.

 

[Jerry Shugart]

The NFC is really good this year.

For the Boys to make the play-offs they must win all of their remaining games. Then the Falcons must lose twice and both the Packers and the Lions must lose at least one game. Atlanta could lose twice since they will play both the Saints and the Panthers.

 

[tetelestai]

They will also win the Super Bowl

I don't see it happening with their poor defense.

The only possible way is if Ben, Bell, Brown, Bryant (killer B's), and the rest of the offense scores 40, or more points a game.

 

[tetelestai]

No one is a lock at this point. Not even the Pats and Eagles.

If the Patriots lose to the Steelers, and Jacksonville wins out, the Patriots would be the #3 seed in the playoffs. Steelers would be #1, and Jacksonville #2.

If the Steelers lose to the Patriots, Jacksonville wins out, and the Steelers lose one of their remaining games, the Steelers would be the #3 seed.

Jacksonville has an easy schedule the last three weeks.

Don't be surprised if Jacksonville is the #2 seed in the AFC.

 

[Town Heretic]

Philly is hurt, probably insurmountably, without Wentz, no doubt about it. I don't see how you come up with your numbers, given that you have very limited data on his backup under center. They're probably at least 10 points down every game from here out, as compared to with Wentz play-calling.

Ah, I hadn't heard anything else about Wentz and I haven't adjusted. . . Just went back and looked. Man, that's tough. Should dramatically impact their chances. I'm not sure what they'll look like. Foles can play well, but not likely well enough to keep a narrow gap the team had over a couple of challengers.