NFL 2017

Town Heretic

Out of Order
Hall of Fame
Tonight's review of my progress so far is brought to you by WoZ. :eek:
@Town Heretic - why don't you post your predictions before the games?
Holiday travel prohibited me from having the time to call the first 3 early, though I did confirm my success with the below.

And thank ye kindly, Jerry, for the nod before the storm. :chuckle: Though not a perfect storm. Close enough.

So yesterday couldn't have gone better for me as I called the first three games correctly.

i
Baltimore Ravens5-5

i
Houston Texans4-6
3
Possible Points Remaining13

You get 1 pt per game in Pigskin Pickem. That total runs at the bottom next to the game and exact score space left for tie breaks.

1. Min (2.5) @ Det: not the easiest call with Detroit at home and needing the win, but I had it a 1 pt Detroit edge and that wasn't a cover, so I let it make the coin toss for me. 1-0 :D

2. SD @ Dal (.5): not a tough pick for me with Dallas absent its running game. Iiked SD (yes, I know) by a fg, 25-22. 2-0 :D

3. Gia @ Was (7.5): right at the outside of my prediction. I had Washington 28-20, so a lower score than I thought, but about right as the line went. 3-0 :D

Now let's take a peek at Sunday's games.

4. TB @ Atl (8.5): The Bucs are on the road where they're 1-4. I don't believe they've upset the line yet on the road. The Vikings and Saints will come calling in the next couple so the lately resurgent birds will need to put this one in the W column. I like Atlanta between 8.5 and 10 as the most likely, say 26-17 and a cover.
Atlanta did an even better job of covering the spread, beating my 9 estimate by four, but in any event, 4-0 :D

5. Buf @ KC (9.5): Why so large a number for the struggling Chiefs? Well, on the road the Bills are another 1-4 team. Even the Jets put up 34 on these guys on the road, so the only question is can KC find their offense in time to take advantage of a much needed turn around win. This is still the team that beat the Pats and Philly. Well, nearly. While it's almost always fashionable to blame Smith as the bad performance penny, with the exception of the Giants loss he's been great. Hunt has been productive in yds per, but hasn't found the end zone since week 3 and the Chiefs defense is giving up 3rd and long, as in more than half the time opponents have been converting on them. That puts them...32nd in the league.

The main problem here is that the Bucs live by the pass and KC is awful of late at slowing that down, making the big line harder to justify. The Bucs are even worse against the pass though and Alex knows how to light up a bad defense...man. I know the Chiefs will win this one, but I'm having a hard time with that big a spread. I'm going to like the Chiefs, but in a closer game. Call it 28-24.
And it was closer than the spread, though KC surprised me by being on the losing side of it. 5-0 :D

6. Chi @ Phi (13.5): another game, another huge line. I've ridden the Philly train to glory every week. I'm not stopping now. The Bears field a top 12 defense in terms of balance against the run and pass, but get in the red zone and they drop to a middle of the pack team. Philly will get in that zone. A big line, but I'll take it.
As predicted, Philly had no trouble covering the line. 6-0 :D

7. Cle @ Cin (8.5): a week of mismatches late, a line prognosticator's nightmare because, yeah, huge spreads to cover. But at home? Maybe. They beat Cleveland by a lot more than that early and away. Okay. I'll bite. Bengals 24-12
Okay, so it was 30-16, 7-0 :D

8. Ten (3.5) @ Ind: is it bad that the half point makes me nervous? Probably. Most likely outcome here is around a five pt margin for Ten. But the Titans have come away with a loss 9 out of 9 times in Lucas Field. They struggled to beat the Bengals at home...Mariota threw a host of picks. This would be a great time to take advantage and turn that streak. Why not?
Why not indeed. 8-0 :D

9. Mia @ NE (16.5): ah, come on man...sure. I hate this week. I'll take the Pats. Miami is playing a back up and the Pats just pounded a better team by more. Unless they coast this should be a nasty one. Say 38-10. A good test for Miami's middling pass defense.
Tom came, Tom saw, Tom made the spread. 9-0 :D

10. Car (4.5) @ Jets: hey, a normal looking game. The only thing that makes me nervous about an outmatched Jets is that they have a nasty tendency to win and lose close. I'll take the Panthers on a hunch.
A good hunch, as it turns out. 10-0 :D

11. Sea (6.5) @ SF: a disappointing home loss sets up the road trip to SF. The Niners can't stop the run and aren't a lot better with the pass. I like the Hawks chances here by closer to ten.
It was 11. And speaking of eleven: 11-0 :D

12. Den @ Oak (5.5): who saw this loss fest at the beginning of the year? I guess Denver has done its job to make the case that Manning was worth a lot more than just mechanics. Oakland continues to squander talent. They lost by 6 in Denver and couldn't do anything against NE last week. It was a 3 pt win against the visiting Dolphins, for Pete's sake. So either they're due to break out of the home slump and take advantage or the wheels come off against a still game defense. And by game I mean stinking, because that former SB unit is 28th in pts allowed. I hate this one for different reasons, but I'm going to call it a closer game and hope the Raiders don't suddenly remember what they're capable of.
Well, nobody's perfect. 11-1 :mmph:

13. NO @ Rams (2.5): a nervous road line tells me the money is worried that NO won't travel and the Rams will take a revenge game after their embarrassing loss against the Vikings. The tale of the tape is simple, hold that Rams offense in check and under 20 and you win. The Rams are top ten against the pass, but lower tier against the run, meaning that the scoring should be lower for the Saints and that Ingram and Kamara have to be effective...more so given the Saints starting cornerbacks are beaten up. And that's what decides this for me. The Saints can play balance, but I don't know that they're ready to lean that heavily on the running game and the Rams will take advantage of that secondary.
And so it went. 12-1 :D

14. Jac (4.5) @ Arz: I have no feel for this one. Statistically speaking I have the likely outcome as a Jacksonville win by 5 pts, something on the order of 22-17
I had not feel and the game was won on an improbable late fg to boot. Ah well. 12-2 :mmph:

15. GB @ Pit (13.5): another big line to consider. I certainly think the Steelers are capable, but I'm not going to bite on this one. I'd take ten easy. I might talk myself into 13, but two tds? I'll probably regret going against the money on this one (67/33).
At present the game is tied and my unwillingness to go with that big a spread is looking golden. We'll see how it ends up.

So no worse than 12-2 this week. If GB holds ground that's 13 and Baltimore could give me my best week in a while.

And on a late fg win the Steelers get a W and so do I.

13-2 :D

And on to tomorrow night.
16. Hou @ Bal (6.5): oh what a difference a few weeks make. Too many injuries for Houston to overcome and puts too much pressure on a fumble prone qb. Baltimore.

And that, old friend WoZ, is what happens when I call early. :D
 
Last edited:

tetelestai

LIFETIME MEMBER
LIFETIME MEMBER
Pennsylvania !!!!!!!

#1 team in the NFC - Philadelphia

#1 team in the AFC - Pittsburgh

Teams from Pennsylvania are 19-3

Teams from Ohio are 5-17
Teams from Texas are 9-12
Teams from Florida are 15-22
Teams from California are 14-19
Teams from New York are 12-21
Teams that play in Maryland are 10-11

But there's that one team from Massachusetts.....

In 2004, Tom Brady and the Patriots beat the #1 seed Steelers in the AFC Championship Game, and then the #1 seed Eagles in the Super Bowl.:bang:

Why does it feel like 2004 all over again?

The only good thing from 2004, is that the Steeler won the Super Bowl in 2005.
 
Last edited:

tetelestai

LIFETIME MEMBER
LIFETIME MEMBER
The Cleveland Browns are now 1-26 in their past 27 games, 2-36 in their past 38 games, and 4-44 in their past 48 games.

The Browns also became just the second team in NFL history to start 0-11 for two straight seasons, tying the 1976-77 Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

If that's not bad enough, the Browns general manager Sashi Brown didn't think Carson Wentz was worth drafting, and traded Cleveland's pick to the Eagles.

So, as Wentz and the Eagles keep winning, and the Browns keep losing, it only hurts more.
 

Town Heretic

Out of Order
Hall of Fame
The Cleveland Browns are now 1-26 in their past 27 games, 2-36 in their past 38 games, and 4-44 in their past 48 games.
In Cleveland that's called rebuilding. Some places have a four or five year plan. In Cleveland it's a "what year is it?" plan.

The Browns also became just the second team in NFL history to start 0-11 for two straight seasons, tying the 1976-77 Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Same problem, the lack of team execution. And I thought Florida had the death penalty. :think:

If that's not bad enough, the Browns general manager Sashi Brown didn't think Carson Wentz was worth drafting, and traded Cleveland's pick to the Eagles.
Well, you know, like they say, "Misery loves Cleveland."


In 2004, Tom Brady and the Patriots beat the #1 seed Steelers in the AFC Championship Game, and then the #1 seed Eagles in the Super Bowl.:bang:

Why does it feel like 2004 all over again?
Brady. He's really the Jabbar of the NFL.

That's very good TH.
It's been a fairly good year for me, prediction wise. I'm in the 98th percentile on Pigskin Pick'em. Meaning I'm in the top 3k with around 160k trailing me. It's not near my best year, but I'll take it, given.

When are you going to tell us your Super Bowl prediction?
:think: There are two questions in that one. I did an early "if the playoffs were today" scenario, but it needs revising. I think I had NE and Philly. That's just fun work, though I'll do it again in a minute. I don't claim to have any special talent on that front though. Too many steps without adjustments.
 

Town Heretic

Out of Order
Hall of Fame
Running an if today bit I have it NE and Philly with the Eagles scoring their 1st SB win in a middling range scoring game that has them up by five at the end. But the "if today" bit has a few teams out of the playoff picture that I believe will be in it and monkeys with the seeding. So it's too early to say much more than Philly and NE are the prohibitive favorites.
 

Town Heretic

Out of Order
Hall of Fame
And the final tally on week 12? Baltimore almost let me down last night, but held on to make the spread and I finish out with 14-2 :D

Best week of the season.

Some good games on tap for this week. Was @ Dal, Min @ Atl, Car @ NO, Phil @ Sea, Pit @ Cin, and NE @ Buf have implications.

KC @ Jets is looking like a real need in the turn around department.

Det and Bal will be going after each other in pursuit of staying in the WC hunt.

In fact, nearly every game this week has playoff ramification potential, which is pretty great for week 13.


That makes the home stretch exciting, but it also underscores a theme, with the exception of NE, Philly, Pit, and NO, is there a team without a real weakness in their game? The point being that we're either going to get a surprise filled and interesting playoffs, or mismatches we can see won't matter while we wait on the seemingly inevitable Steelers/Pats and Philly/less certain Championship games.

From here on in it's really all about living up to potential and getting a hot hand, the way the Giants did twice to lasting effect.
 
Last edited:

Nihilo

BANNED
Banned
Oddly enough, I never gamble. Taking on the gambler's line just adds an element of competition within the competition that I enjoy.
I ask because if you're savvy enough to crunch all the data and develop models with good reliable predictable accuracy, then you could also compare your results with actual bets, to determine if you could derive some or even all of your income from such activity. It'd just be a calculation of all your projected winnings less your losses. I don't know how or if you could participate in the Vegas market from where you live, but that might be worth determining, if just out of curiosity.

In running numbers to support your betting, you're reducing the gambling part of it, making it more of an investment activity and less of a pure gambling activity.
 

Town Heretic

Out of Order
Hall of Fame
Took the Cowboys on Thursday. For whatever reason around 70% of people jumped on a Washington 1.5 line upset. Good for me, as I move into the top 1% of Pigskin Pick'em players over on ESPN's board. :D

I won't have time to go through games as finals opened last night and I'll be studying through most of today and tomorrow.
 

Town Heretic

Out of Order
Hall of Fame
How important is a running game? Ask Auburn. Ask Dallas. Dak, without Eliot is currently ranked 20th by performance this year in the NFL. Sophomore slump? No, just what happens to a young qb without balance on the offense.
 

Town Heretic

Out of Order
Hall of Fame
Another good week mostly in the books, if not as stellar as last--yet.

1. I took Dallas over visiting Washington because the point spread so so slim (1.5). I had it 22-24. That close. the 38-14 shocked me, but a win is a win. 1-0 :D

2. Minnesota was a 2.5 dog visiting Atlanta. The Vikings win over Detroit on the road convinced me to stay with them. 2-0 :D

3. NE @ Buf was an easy pick. The 8.5 Pats line wasn't a concern for me. I had it closer to 2 tds. 3-0 :D

4. SF @ Chi (3.5): didn't see this one coming at all. I would have taken 7. That's life. 3-1 :mmph:

5. Den @ Mia (.5): I liked the Fins by 9, but 26? Wow. 4-1 :D

6. Det @ Bal (2.5): after the Atlanta loss at home I just don't have confidence in them and Baltimore was playing better. 5-1 :D

7. TB @ GB (2.5): The Pack lost a tough contest at Pittsburgh that convinced me they would be better at home than the visiting warm weather Bucs. I had it 19-23. Final: 20-26 There you go. 6-1 :D

8. Hou @ Ten (6.5): wasn't an easy call for me, as I had them right at six. But the way Houston lost to Baltimore convinced me they'd be vulnerable enough visiting the Titans to cover the half. 7-1 :D

9. Ind @ Jac (9.5): easy call. I had it likely 26-13. Final: 30-10. 8-1 :D

10. KC (3.5) @ Jets: I had the Chiefs by 3 and couldn't credit them with a half point stretch considering their slide. 9-1 :D

11. Cle @ SD (13.5): I bit on the line and paid the price. 9-2 :mmph:

12. Gia @ Oak (6.5): had it the other way until the Eli debacle. Thanks New York. :thumb: 10-2 :D

Going back over the sheets to adjust and saw I had the likely final 18-24. Final: 17-24.

13. Rams (6.5) @ Arz: another easy call as the Cardinals had their emotional rally already. 11-2 :D

14. Car @ NO (3.5): I liked the Saints by 10, 31-21. Final: 31-21 and that's a sweet way to end the day. 12-2 :D

15. Philly (5.5) @ Sea: I have been amply rewarded by the Eagles this year. I'm taking the Eagles.

16. Pit (6.5) @ Cin: this one I'm taking for the upset...against the line. I like it closer if the Bengals play the way they should.

So, I can tie last week (called ahead of the games here) or end up no worse than 12-4 or 13-3. Not bad.
 
Last edited:

Town Heretic

Out of Order
Hall of Fame
Man, Philly let me down. 12-3 and my gamble against the Steelers is starting to look like a bad idea. :chuckle:

But seriously, the Eagles are suddenly less frightening and Seattle...hmm. An off game against a great effort or a statement?
 

Nihilo

BANNED
Banned
But seriously, the Eagles are suddenly less frightening
I thought the same thing after NE's game against Denver, who had just been dismantled by Philly the previous week.
and Seattle...hmm. An off game against a great effort or a statement?
They're back to being contenders.

The NFC is where all the drama is this season. There's no telling who's going to represent them in the championship at this point, too many good teams.

In the AFC, even though NE doesn't look as dominant (because their offense has begun to look shaky), it's still impossible to say that anybody could beat them in the tournament. Pittsburgh is the closest thing, but I tend to agree with Tet that they're going to have a tough time unseating the reigning champs this year. As far as anybody else in the AFC---doesn't look too good.
 

Town Heretic

Out of Order
Hall of Fame
I thought the same thing after NE's game against Denver, who had just been dismantled by Philly the previous week.
They're back to being contenders.
Certainly in the mix. I agree with Howie Long that the Seattle defense is no longer great, but they're still very good and when their qb plays the way he did against Philly, that's a potent combination. I'm still worried about their offensive line and I'm not ready to say they can be this good consistently and last week this was about the same score when they played SF, but it's certainly reason to recognize their role as a potential spoiler, even if I'm not sure it's time to talk about them as more.

The NFC is where all the drama is this season. There's no telling who's going to represent them in the championship at this point, too many good teams.
I think you still have to give Philly the edge over the field, but there are certainly teams that can challenge. NO for instance. The Rams, depending.

In the AFC, even though NE doesn't look as dominant (because their offense has begun to look shaky), it's still impossible to say that anybody could beat them in the tournament.
I think they're in about the same position as Philly. But it's easier to have faith in Bill and Tom than in the newcomers to be sure.

Pittsburgh is the closest thing, but I tend to agree with Tet that they're going to have a tough time unseating the reigning champs this year. As far as anybody else in the AFC---doesn't look too good.
On a given day you have several spoilers in the AFC. Most of them in the West, and the line of demarcation is stronger than in the NFC.
 
Top