Looking at the Cowboys remaining games. The good news is that they're better than just about everyone left on their schedule. Bad news, so is Philly.
Dallas 5-4
Phi @Dal: a game Dallas could win, but likely won't, dropping them to 5-5.
SD @ Dal: Closer than you'd think now, say a 3 pt win for Dallas being more likely than a loss. 6-5
Was @ Dal: should be a win, though not after the earlier meeting floor wiping. 7-5
Dal @ Gia: 8-5
Dal @ Oak: anyone's game. So they're 9-5 or 8-6
Sea @ Dal: the other game that they could as easily lose close, but at home...being generous let's say it's a close win. 10-5 or 9-6
If Dallas loses to Philly they need the Oakland game to hang onto wild card hopes and the Seattle game becomes really important.
Philly 8-1
Phi @ Dal: supra, likely 9-1
Chi @ Phi: should be an easy win, but the Bears have some talent, are home, and can play without caution. So it's a game not to look past. 10-1
Phi @ Sea: a tough game in Seattle that I think the Eagles should be a 4.5 fav. if things hold from here. Either a 11-1 or 10-2
Phi @ Ram: coming off what should be a brutal away game I think this is one they can lose close or big. 11-2, 10-3
Phi @ Gia: the road trip continues with a chance to regroup from two hard games against the listing Giants. 12-2 or 11-3
Oak @ Phi: the last regular season game isn't a cake walk, but at home it should be a nice gearing game for the playoffs. 13-2 or 12-3
So who is Dallas having to edge past for one of two WC slots?
NFC North: Min and Det are still in play vying for the division, with the Vikes having a one game div. lead.
Green Bay isn't out of WC contention.
The Vikings have a brutal, playoff row finishing schedule that I project with lose them both the divisional lead and WC chance leaving Detroit in control. Here's what it looks like:
Min 7-2
Ram @ Min: a very hard win is possible here at home but I like the visitor in a squeaker. 8-2 or 7-3 then.
Min @ Det: into the belly of their rival. I like a marginal win by the home team, but it's another toss up. 9-2 best or 7-4 at this point.
Min @ Atl: a rallying Falcons team at home is a tough nut for a weaker road team. Atlanta in another close one. 10-2 or 7-5 potential.
Cin @ Min: if they're surviving at this point a winnable game to be careful with. If they've taken a couple of losses or more we get a look at their character.
Min @ GB: without Rodgers this is a winnable road game.
I give them two should win and a likely two losses with one maybe, leaving them at 9-5 and possibly 8-6 and out.
Det 5-4
Det @ Chi: a tougher win than you'd think given the state of the Lion's injuries. I have it a squeaker. 6-4 or 5-5
Min @ Det: a close home win against their rival is likely. 7-4 or 5-6
Det @ Bal: I think they lose this one, but it's a toss up too. 7-4 or 5-7
Det @ TB: should win by four. 8-5 or 6-7
Chi @ Det: not as tough a win at home. 9-5 or 7-7
Det @ Cin: nail bitter, but I like a needy Lion's chances 10-5 or 7-8
So the potential downside is worse for the Lions and the upside better.
Projected winner: Detroit. Minnesota's schedule is too tough and I suspect they'll lose 3 and win 2 ending at 9-4 with Detroit losing one or two and taking the division via an easier route.
NFC South: NO and Car are in the same position as Min and Det, with Atlanta controlling it's destiny except against the Saints if they win out and NO wins out. So who knows?
NO 7-2
Another tough schedule that sees them playing Was, Rams, Car, Atl, Jets, Atl. I like them to win most of those, drop one or two, winning over Car and splitting with Atlanta, losing to the Rams potentially. Call it 11-5 likely. Carolina? I like them to finish 10-6 or 11-5 losing the top spot to NO with a divisional sweep of them by the Saints.
Projected winner: Saints, with Carolina taking a WC slot.
NFC West: Seattle is one game back in wins but one game up in the division, which includes a win against their rival, the Rams. The Rams have another chance at them late. Up for grabs with the loser looking for the WC.
Projected winner: If the Rams want the division they'll need to beat the Seahawks late to split between them and run an impressive gauntlet late. It's hard to judge the Rams because they've mostly beaten up on weak teams, with Dallas being their only real quality win. They did stay close at home against Seattle, but that doesn't bode well for the split.
Call this one for Seattle with the Rams in good position for the second WC slot.
I think Dallas will be hard pressed to make the playoffs. Minnesota is more likely, Carolina likely and the Rams a better bet than either Dallas or Min.