WizardofOz
New member
[MENTION=7640]Town Heretic[/MENTION] - why don't you post your predictions before the games?
NFL 2017
- Thread starter Nathon Detroit
- Start date
Most years here I do and have. And I did better on average than I'm doing this year, though this year hasn't been awful. It's partly about time and interest. A lot of people were doing it here until fairly recently, with the numbers drop off. Makes it harder to care for the breakdowns I did before, talking to the Vegas lines and particulars. Without that and with two short term mobility issue parents to tend to and grad school wrapping up a lot of days this year I found myself setting out predictions for the night games while going over what the numbers said about the earlier ones.
This week was even later than most and the only games that hadn't happened when I set the whole thing out were:
A win.
:mmph: Man do the Broncos stink on ice at qb.
A win.
A win.
TBD
One of the Pats' radio announcing crew said that this one was over before it began. In pregame warmups, while NE was being disciplined and orderly (as per usual), the Raiders were playing games with each other. During the game, there were Oakland players on and off the field yelling back and forth at each other. That team doesn't really lack for talent on the field, but the coaching staff doesn't know what they're doing, and I think this is unfortunately for the league, more normal than abnormal. Even the teams that take things seriously and businesslike, don't think things through as much as they should, being at the level they're at in this vocation.
One example was the NE coaches taking pains to examine where the sun was shining through the stadium onto the field, and adjusting their play calling for the game. At least once, a Raiders receiver dropped a ball because the Raiders coaches didn't do the same. We saw the same problem at Dallas last week. You can't run plays that depend upon the sun not shining into the eyes of your receivers, when the sun is shining into their eyes.
All in all, the quality of play this year in the league has got the be the primary reason for the drop-off in ratings. NE and a handful of other teams aren't doing anything spectacular; they're just being professional about it.
I think Atlanta will win. They've been playing a lot better recently than earlier in the season, and in order for Seattle to win, Wilson will pretty much need to do it all on his own, and it's not that he can't, it's just that the odds are against him.
beloved57
Well-known member
Wilson gives them a shot but i agree hes going against the odds. When our Offence plays well so does our D
Jerry Shugart
Well-known member
I'm running out of it fast. It appears that not only will Dallas' best linebacker (First Team All Pro Sean Lee) not play this Thanksgiving but their second best linebacker (Anthony Hitchens) will be out too.
So look for the Chargers to rush for 200 yards or more!
Jerry Shugart
Well-known member
I agree with you but what do I know!
Jerry Shugart
Well-known member
He usually does and it is amazing how well he does. If I was a gambling man I would bet the way he predicts the games and retire on easy street.
My most memorable Thanksgiving games:
1) The Jerome Bettis coin flip (1998)
2) The Leon Lett touch (1993)
3) Randy Moss - 3 rec/163 yards/3 TD's as a rookie (1998)
4) Steelers lost 45-3 to Detroit, Johnny Carson the next day: "I had the Steelers and 40..." (1983)
5) Steeler's head coach Mike Tomlin tries to trip the Ravens Jacoby Jones as Jones was running past him on the sideline (2013)
Looks like the Cowboys opened at -2.5, but now the line is even.
I like the talent on the Falcons and have for a while, but in Seattle? :think: Can't do it. They're 3-1 at home. Granted, the one loss was against a good Washington team and the wins were against suspect opponents...on the other side, Atlanta has struggled to put up a lot of points on the road and seems to have forgotten how to get Jones into the gameplan.
I'm not wild about it, but I'm staying with Seattle.
Jerry Shugart
Well-known member
My most is when Clint Longley and the Boys shocked the Redskins:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U5eFMXZIKkk
beloved57
Well-known member
Good win against a very good home team and crowd. Stupid penalties however almost cost us the game. Need to be more discipline ! Next up Tampa Bay at the Dome !
It looked like a mirror of what I expected, with the half point being my chief concern, but the other way. Good for your guys, even if it cost me a win.
I had never heard of Clint Longley.
However, learning that a few weeks after that game, he punched Roger Staubach in the back of the head....I like Clint Longley !!!
Jerry Shugart
Well-known member
Hitchens now says that he is going to play after all. I wonder if that will result in a change in the point spread? And with the great edge rushers of the Charger Tyron Smith better play or the Boys will be in deep trouble!
Yes, you have already made it known that you like people who attack others from behind, the same way that Cliff Harris was attacked by dirty Jack Lambert!
So yesterday couldn't have gone better for me as I called the first three games correctly.
You get 1 pt per game in Pigskin Pickem. That total runs at the bottom next to the game and exact score space left for tie breaks.
1. Min (2.5) @ Det: not the easiest call with Detroit at home and needing the win, but I had it a 1 pt Detroit edge and that wasn't a cover, so I let it make the coin toss for me. 1-0
2. SD @ Dal (.5): not a tough pick for me with Dallas absent its running game. Iiked SD (yes, I know) by a fg, 25-22. 2-0
3. Gia @ Was (7.5): right at the outside of my prediction. I had Washington 28-20, so a lower score than I thought, but about right as the line went. 3-0
Now let's take a peek at Sunday's games.
4. TB @ Atl (8.5): The Bucs are on the road where they're 1-4. I don't believe they've upset the line yet on the road. The Vikings and Saints will come calling in the next couple so the lately resurgent birds will need to put this one in the W column. I like Atlanta between 8.5 and 10 as the most likely, say 26-17 and a cover.
5. Buf @ KC (9.5): Why so large a number for the struggling Chiefs? Well, on the road the Bills are another 1-4 team. Even the Jets put up 34 on these guys on the road, so the only question is can KC find their offense in time to take advantage of a much needed turn around win. This is still the team that beat the Pats and Philly. Well, nearly. While it's almost always fashionable to blame Smith as the bad performance penny, with the exception of the Giants loss he's been great. Hunt has been productive in yds per, but hasn't found the end zone since week 3 and the Chiefs defense is giving up 3rd and long, as in more than half the time opponents have been converting on them. That puts them...32nd in the league.
The main problem here is that the Bucs live by the pass and KC is awful of late at slowing that down, making the big line harder to justify. The Bucs are even worse against the pass though and Alex knows how to light up a bad defense...man. I know the Chiefs will win this one, but I'm having a hard time with that big a spread. I'm going to like the Chiefs, but in a closer game. Call it 28-24.
6. Chi @ Phi (13.5): another game, another huge line. I've ridden the Philly train to glory every week. I'm not stopping now. The Bears field a top 12 defense in terms of balance against the run and pass, but get in the red zone and they drop to a middle of the pack team. Philly will get in that zone. A big line, but I'll take it.
7. Cle @ Cin (8.5): a week of mismatches late, a line prognosticator's nightmare because, yeah, huge spreads to cover. But at home? Maybe. They beat Cleveland by a lot more than that early and away. Okay. I'll bite. Bengals 24-12
8. Ten (3.5) @ Ind: is it bad that the half point makes me nervous? Probably. Most likely outcome here is around a five pt margin for Ten. But the Titans have come away with a loss 9 out of 9 times in Lucas Field. They struggled to beat the Bengals at home...Mariota threw a host of picks. This would be a great time to take advantage and turn that streak. Why not?
9. Mia @ NE (16.5): ah, come on man...sure. I hate this week. I'll take the Pats. Miami is playing a back up and the Pats just pounded a better team by more. Unless they coast this should be a nasty one. Say 38-10. A good test for Miami's middling pass defense.
10. Car (4.5) @ Jets: hey, a normal looking game. The only thing that makes me nervous about an outmatched Jets is that they have a nasty tendency to win and lose close. I'll take the Panthers on a hunch.
11. Sea (6.5) @ SF: a disappointing home loss sets up the road trip to SF. The Niners can't stop the run and aren't a lot better with the pass. I like the Hawks chances here by closer to ten.
12. Den @ Oak (5.5): who saw this loss fest at the beginning of the year? I guess Denver has done its job to make the case that Manning was worth a lot more than just mechanics. Oakland continues to squander talent. They lost by 6 in Denver and couldn't do anything against NE last week. It was a 3 pt win against the visiting Dolphins, for Pete's sake. So either they're due to break out of the home slump and take advantage or the wheels come off against a still game defense. And by game I mean stinking, because that former SB unit is 28th in pts allowed. I hate this one for different reasons, but I'm going to call it a closer game and hope the Raiders don't suddenly remember what they're capable of.
13. NO @ Rams (2.5): a nervous road line tells me the money is worried that NO won't travel and the Rams will take a revenge game after their embarrassing loss against the Vikings. The tale of the tape is simple, hold that Rams offense in check and under 20 and you win. The Rams are top ten against the pass, but lower tier against the run, meaning that the scoring should be lower for the Saints and that Ingram and Kamara have to be effective...more so given the Saints starting cornerbacks are beaten up. And that's what decides this for me. The Saints can play balance, but I don't know that they're ready to lean that heavily on the running game and the Rams will take advantage of that secondary.
14. Jac (4.5) @ Arz: I have no feel for this one. Statistically speaking I have the likely outcome as a Jacksonville win by 5 pts, something on the order of 22-17
15. GB @ Pit (13.5): another big line to consider. I certainly think the Steelers are capable, but I'm not going to bite on this one. I'd take ten easy. I might talk myself into 13, but two tds? I'll probably regret going against the money on this one (67/33).
16. Hou @ Bal (6.5): oh what a difference a few weeks make. Too many injuries for Houston to overcome and puts too much pressure on a fumble prone qb. Baltimore.
| 3 Possible Points Remaining13 |
You get 1 pt per game in Pigskin Pickem. That total runs at the bottom next to the game and exact score space left for tie breaks.
1. Min (2.5) @ Det: not the easiest call with Detroit at home and needing the win, but I had it a 1 pt Detroit edge and that wasn't a cover, so I let it make the coin toss for me. 1-0
2. SD @ Dal (.5): not a tough pick for me with Dallas absent its running game. Iiked SD (yes, I know) by a fg, 25-22. 2-0
3. Gia @ Was (7.5): right at the outside of my prediction. I had Washington 28-20, so a lower score than I thought, but about right as the line went. 3-0
Now let's take a peek at Sunday's games.
4. TB @ Atl (8.5): The Bucs are on the road where they're 1-4. I don't believe they've upset the line yet on the road. The Vikings and Saints will come calling in the next couple so the lately resurgent birds will need to put this one in the W column. I like Atlanta between 8.5 and 10 as the most likely, say 26-17 and a cover.
5. Buf @ KC (9.5): Why so large a number for the struggling Chiefs? Well, on the road the Bills are another 1-4 team. Even the Jets put up 34 on these guys on the road, so the only question is can KC find their offense in time to take advantage of a much needed turn around win. This is still the team that beat the Pats and Philly. Well, nearly. While it's almost always fashionable to blame Smith as the bad performance penny, with the exception of the Giants loss he's been great. Hunt has been productive in yds per, but hasn't found the end zone since week 3 and the Chiefs defense is giving up 3rd and long, as in more than half the time opponents have been converting on them. That puts them...32nd in the league.
The main problem here is that the Bucs live by the pass and KC is awful of late at slowing that down, making the big line harder to justify. The Bucs are even worse against the pass though and Alex knows how to light up a bad defense...man. I know the Chiefs will win this one, but I'm having a hard time with that big a spread. I'm going to like the Chiefs, but in a closer game. Call it 28-24.
6. Chi @ Phi (13.5): another game, another huge line. I've ridden the Philly train to glory every week. I'm not stopping now. The Bears field a top 12 defense in terms of balance against the run and pass, but get in the red zone and they drop to a middle of the pack team. Philly will get in that zone. A big line, but I'll take it.
7. Cle @ Cin (8.5): a week of mismatches late, a line prognosticator's nightmare because, yeah, huge spreads to cover. But at home? Maybe. They beat Cleveland by a lot more than that early and away. Okay. I'll bite. Bengals 24-12
8. Ten (3.5) @ Ind: is it bad that the half point makes me nervous? Probably. Most likely outcome here is around a five pt margin for Ten. But the Titans have come away with a loss 9 out of 9 times in Lucas Field. They struggled to beat the Bengals at home...Mariota threw a host of picks. This would be a great time to take advantage and turn that streak. Why not?
9. Mia @ NE (16.5): ah, come on man...sure. I hate this week. I'll take the Pats. Miami is playing a back up and the Pats just pounded a better team by more. Unless they coast this should be a nasty one. Say 38-10. A good test for Miami's middling pass defense.
10. Car (4.5) @ Jets: hey, a normal looking game. The only thing that makes me nervous about an outmatched Jets is that they have a nasty tendency to win and lose close. I'll take the Panthers on a hunch.
11. Sea (6.5) @ SF: a disappointing home loss sets up the road trip to SF. The Niners can't stop the run and aren't a lot better with the pass. I like the Hawks chances here by closer to ten.
12. Den @ Oak (5.5): who saw this loss fest at the beginning of the year? I guess Denver has done its job to make the case that Manning was worth a lot more than just mechanics. Oakland continues to squander talent. They lost by 6 in Denver and couldn't do anything against NE last week. It was a 3 pt win against the visiting Dolphins, for Pete's sake. So either they're due to break out of the home slump and take advantage or the wheels come off against a still game defense. And by game I mean stinking, because that former SB unit is 28th in pts allowed. I hate this one for different reasons, but I'm going to call it a closer game and hope the Raiders don't suddenly remember what they're capable of.
13. NO @ Rams (2.5): a nervous road line tells me the money is worried that NO won't travel and the Rams will take a revenge game after their embarrassing loss against the Vikings. The tale of the tape is simple, hold that Rams offense in check and under 20 and you win. The Rams are top ten against the pass, but lower tier against the run, meaning that the scoring should be lower for the Saints and that Ingram and Kamara have to be effective...more so given the Saints starting cornerbacks are beaten up. And that's what decides this for me. The Saints can play balance, but I don't know that they're ready to lean that heavily on the running game and the Rams will take advantage of that secondary.
14. Jac (4.5) @ Arz: I have no feel for this one. Statistically speaking I have the likely outcome as a Jacksonville win by 5 pts, something on the order of 22-17
15. GB @ Pit (13.5): another big line to consider. I certainly think the Steelers are capable, but I'm not going to bite on this one. I'd take ten easy. I might talk myself into 13, but two tds? I'll probably regret going against the money on this one (67/33).
16. Hou @ Bal (6.5): oh what a difference a few weeks make. Too many injuries for Houston to overcome and puts too much pressure on a fumble prone qb. Baltimore.
:mock: Cowboys
Jerry Shugart
Well-known member
It's amazing how much difference missing their starting running back can make. It's not surprising that missing a starting quarterback can make a huge difference for any team but how often does a running back make a huge difference? That's a Jim Brown like difference.
Shows that Zeke is a great player.
Not to say I told you so, but back in September I spoke to the problem of losing Zeke and...
So, last year vs this year with Dak
2016: 67.8% comp., 8.0 avg., .9 int%, 104.9 rating
2017: 63.7% comp., 6.7 avg., 2.9 int%, 87.6 rating
Or, with a running game in support he's great. Without it (and with a solid defensive book) he's really good at this stage of his development. And that's nothing to be concerned about, because at this early a stage very few are performing better than that. Excellent qb who needs help. The lower averages, even though he had his rb a lot of the time, are indicative of defenses not having to put seven in the box and his need to pick up some short yardage with passes. Likewise the rise in his int% and solid reduction in rating.
If Zeke can mature as a person and they pick up a couple of pieces in the off season there's no reason we still shouldn't be on the cusp of a serious rebirth for Dallas as an NFC threat. And just in time for a serious rivalry with Philly.