Week Four, BBR (before Brady's return)
Okay, so I broke a vicious cycle and won the first game of the week. Let's take a look at the whole week now.
1.
Mia @ Cin
Favored: Cin by 6.5
Money: heavily in the Bengals favor.
Sim: 15/30 Cin
My Take: A decent team meets a really good team in need of a win before the home crowd. I took
Cin to cover with ease.
2.
Ind @ Jac
Favored: Colts by 2.5
Money: 58/42 for Indianapolis
Sim: 29/30 Jacksonville
My Take: Statistically speaking this one is a wash. That inclines me to take the spoiler/mild upset. Especially given the home team owns that distinction.
Jags.
3.
Car @ Atl
Favored: Car by 2.5
Money: 60/40 Panthers
Sim: 20-26
My Take: Atlanta has played uncommonly good so far. Maybe the latest coaching change and offensive scheme is giving them production to match their talent base. Maybe it's their improved defense (14th by pts). But the birds have put up solid points against suspect defenses and Carolina's loss to the Vikings was an embarrassment that needs to be answered. I'm going to go with the
Panthers to make a rallying statement.
4.
Buf @ NE
Favored: Pats by 6.5
Money: 60/40 New England
Sim: 17/31 New England
My Take: This four game run is one of the more impressive coaching jobs I've seen in quite a while. Hats off to the Pats. Too bad Granite isn't around to gloat.
But for last week, this is a no-brainer. But last week Buf put up a ton of points on a good Cardinals defense...was that a turn of sorts or just a confluence of defensive collapse with an exceptional performance by the Bills? Hard to see them beating New England, but it's not that hard to see this one being close...I like the
Pats to cover late.
5.
Det @ Chi
Favored: Lions by 2.5
Money: 65/35 Detroit
Sim: 22/23 Chicago
My Take: miserable game to predict. Chicago can't run and has to pass to win. Detroit appears to mostly rest its secondary during the game. Two bad defenses. Detroit can run and Chicago can't stop that...the stronger balance belongs to the Lions, who looked solid in a tough loss to Green Bay. Chicago hasn't put up more than two tds so far this year, but has faced much better competition...and they're at home. :think: I'll still take the
Lions to win with balance and do just enough for the city.
6.
Cle @ Was
Favored: Was by 8.5
Money: Nearly everyone on board for the Browns.
Sim: 14/34 Redskins
My Take: Both teams are giving up yards like a fire sale, so it's really all about which team is in the best position to take the most advantage. I think that favors Washington, though huge point spreads with losers on board makes me nervous. Okay...more like a ten point, 31-20 ish win for
Washington, signifying nothing.
7.
Ten @ Hou
Favored: Houston by 6.5
Money: The money likes Houston if the line is at 5, which is where everyone but the oddballs at ESPN have it.
Sim: 14/24 Texans
My Take: Houston is 2-0 at home and boasts the better defense. Huge line though. I'll take it and
Houston to reestablish their bone fides and salve the sting from that thumping the Pats third stringer and company gave them last week.
8.
Oak @ Bal
Favored: Ravens by 3.5
Money: 56/44 Ravens
Sim: 14/27
My Take: one of the "safer" games on the board this week. A good test for a potent, balanced offence on Oakland's part...problem is, they're defense is equally inept. I think it could be a close game, but I'll take the half point on the odd chance that the home team D can take advantage.
Ravens.
9.
Sea @ Jet
Favored: Seahawks by 3.5
Money: 60/40 Jets upset
Sim: 20/21 Jets
My Take: Man, no one wants anything to do with the favorite in this one. It should really hinge on whether or not you think Seattle found its offense last week. The defense is playing as well as any and better than nearly any, again. The Jests looked vulnerable at KC. I have this one a dead heat, which means I'll take the
Jets on pts.
10.
Den @ TB
Favored: Denver by 3.5
Money: 64/36 Broncos
Sim: 22/23
My Take: The sim hates these points, which surprised me. Tampa is giving up, on average, more than a td in difference on D to the Broncos, while putting up about the same point total. What am I missing here? :idunno:
Denver.
11.
Dal @ SF
Favored: Cowboys by 2.5
Money: 60/40 Dallas
Sim: 21-24 Dallas
My Take: Dallas should win this game. The question is by how much...If the trend we're seeing on offense for Dallas continues as the "Romo" quandary clouds begin to form on the horizon. Dak is getting stronger by the game and that's helping the defense too.
Dallas.
12.
LA @ Arz
Favored: Arizona by 8.5
Money: At 8 pts the line is breaking 55/45 for the pts upset and LA.
Sim: 12/29
My Take: I completely understand people hating this line. Mostly it's about how poorly this Cardinals defense is playing. Mostly. Arizona has only really looked like itself from last year in the one big win in week two. The week one, close loss to NE was, as it turns out, respectable. The loss to Buffalo? Not so much. So this game should give a strong indicator of team character and if they're going to start playing up to their talent level. Given the talent on hand and that coaching staff, it seems likely. But is it eight and a half points likely? :think: I'm going to gamble and say yes.
Arizona.
13.
NO @ SD
Favored: SD by 4.5
Money: 54/46 for NO by 4
Sim: 24/31 SD
My Take: The Chargers are scoring 3 more on average and giving up around 8 more on defense. The Saints play just well enough to lose...until the pummeling Atlanta gave them. SD stumbled a little against my Colts on the road. They're at home this week. Could be a shoot out and a fg to decide the thing, but I'm leaning on more of a 33-27 win by the
Chargers at home.
14.
KC @ Pit
Favored: Pit by 5.5
Money: 56/44 Steelers
Sim: 18/24 Pit
My Take: Two teams with different strengths. I see this one closer and will take
KC to keep it there.
15.
Gia @ Min
Favored: Vikings by 4.5
Money: 58/42 Min.
Sim: 14/24 Min
My Take: The Giants aren't a bad team, but the way the Vikings are playing so far...hard to see a favorable outcome for the G-men. The Giants' best offensive output came in a defensively flawed loss to Washington. Otherwise, they've had trouble finding the end zone and lived by their defensive play. Minnesota? They looked decent against a so-so Titans, demonstrated the ability to win close against GB, then showed their new qb is getting comfortable in their impressive 22-10 handling of the Panthers. I see that streak continuing.
Vikings.