87 consecutive pass attempts, over three games with no picks. Yeah I could get used to that.
Tom Who?
I'm joking.
NFL 2016
- Thread starter Nathon Detroit
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Tom Who?
I'm joking.
Quetzal
New member
I found myself asking "How many more rabbits can he pull out of the hat?" and the question is still open because he keeps doing it. Many teams are struggling with their QB1s but Bill and the boys are getting it down with their QB3 and are still missing Gronk. Some of the plays he called yesterday was genius and had remarkable efficiency. It was fun to watch if you were a Pats fan. On the other side, however...
Which is surprising. I was expecting him to do okay given the NE struggles when the ball is in the air. Shame on me as the defensive coordinator shut them down and more.
I started Gronk in two of my leagues which bit me, however, I also had the NE defense and Blount which evened things out. Going into Sunday I have some ground to make up in pick'ems and fantasy alike.
Quetzal
New member
But seriously, there is something to be said about that. The Patriots are still missing pieces to the puzzle but the picture is still crystal clear. They are a competitor and they are here to win, I guess there shouldn't have been any doubt.87 consecutive pass attempts, over three games with no picks. Yeah I could get used to that.
Tom Who?
I'm joking.
'Figure Brady would have 50% more PAs by now, so the backups have about 2/3 of what he would have by now, but 87 consecutive PAs without a pick is like two straight games without a pick for Brady, which isn't an unusual streak for him.
Like I said, Tom Who?
The only good news from the Pats game was that apparently everyone outside of New England (and some within) went with Houston too, so it didn't hurt my standings. That said, that first loss appears to have adversely impacted Quet's confidence in prognosticating. This is a tough week. Let's begin with a hard look at the remaining slate.
Where ESPN's line is off the main average I'll adjust. By way of, the first game, Arizona at Buffalo. ESPN has a difficult 4.5 line while most of the nation is taking odds with a point shaved off of that.
Week 3
1. Arz @ Buf
Favored: Arizona by 4.5
Money: 63/37 Cardinals
Computer sim: a four point margin for the Cardinals.
My take: The Cardinals are an excellent football team playing a team that just isn't. It could be a cake walk blow out, but it shouldn't be a loss. I like Palmer and company by nearly a td, so I'll take the points. Cardinals.
2. Den @ Cin
Favored: Cin by 2.5
Money: almost even 52/48 for the mild, mild upset.
CS: The cats, but by 2.
My take: I'm not sure how sure anyone can be here. My model likes the Bengals to cover at home. Two talented teams. I have Cincinnati closing the deal on this one by as much as 6, but my heart isn't buying in. I look at the Cats giving up around 8 pts total so far in the differential then factor in the Dalton hit in the face... I see that defense pressuring Andy into mistakes while Mr. Simulation dinks and dunks and leans on his running game, which Cin is about the worst at stopping so far this year, giving up around 138 yds a game. The Bengals are respectable against the pass, but Denver is third best so far at stopping what Cin does best and weakest (against the run) at what Cin doesn't do very well...so I'll have to take Denver until they falter or the Bengals hit them in the mouth instead.
3. Cle @ Mia
Favored:Fins at 9.5
Money: 57/43 in favor of that line
CS: 15 or better, Miami
My take: I really, really don't care outside of having to pick one of these teams to win. I have it Miami running away, but that's a really big line and McCown is one of the qbs who can have a day that leaves you scratching your wallet and staring into an empty head...or something. I hate games like this.
4. Det @ GB
Favored: GB by 7.5
Money: 58/42 for the Pack
CS: a 13 pt cushion for Green Bay
My take: Are the Pack and Rogers living off a fading reputation? Can the up and down Lions have a good week on the road? Yes and no and go with the Pack. The fact is that the Packers' air attack is averaging fewer than 200 yds and the running game isn't exactly wowing, with 89 yards a game putting them low middle of the, excuse me, pack. Good news? They're at home, where they tend to play good football. Detroit? You could argue their strength is GB's heel and that they put 39 on Indy on the road and mostly through the air before failing to find the end zone much at home against a lesser Titan's team. One reason why I hate most of the games this week...things like this. I've changed my pick twice while I was thinking about this game. Sheesh.
5. Oak @ Ten
Favored: Ten by 1.5...I mean, seriously... :mmph: Have I mentioned how much I hate this week's schedule yet?
Money: 60/40 for the Oakland upset.
CS: Ten big...by which I actually mean the Titans by a lot of points. I think the PC is broken. A virus maybe.
My take: In any event I'm taking the Titans to win a hard fought...I don't know. I'll take'em to cover anyway.
6. Min @ Car
Favored: Panthers by 6.5
Money: 55/45 Car
CS: Car by 8
My take: I have a late win by Carolina to cover, but just. These are two very good teams. Bradford gives them the best chance of taking a talented team who knows how deep into the playoffs, if they can keep him upright. Carolina continues to impress. But the missed factor here is defensive balance, which should see this game winner in the low 20s at best. All things being on par I'd say a 24-17 Panther win would be about right. If the offenses catch fire, I like it 34- 27 Carolina.
7. Was @ Gia
Favored: Gia by 4.5
Money: The real line is 3.5 and it's getting a nervous 55/45 for the Giants
CS: A nine-ish pt win for the Giants. So the computer is much more comfortable.
My take: Washington is already leaking confidence sucking information about locker room concerns. Is that to kick start their qb or begin the process of covering posteriors and setting the table for the next shift of coaches and staff? Hard to say. It's Washington. So far the Giants are doing a decent job of moving the ball. They're about middle of the pack on offensive yardage gained and they gain it with balance, but they're a woeful 26th in point production, meaning they're okay at moving it but not so great at red zone play. Defensively, they're playing respectable against the pass and are about as tough to run on as any team, behind only Green Bay, Pittsburgh and Seattle. They're tough in that red zone too, placing 7th in points allowed by a hair or two. Washington...stop the passing game and they're done. That puts a lot of pressure under center. Even the team is wondering if Cousins can get it done, which is a little unfair given the lack of help he's getting from that running game or from his defense, which is tied for 29th in points allowed.
Guess who I'm picking.lain: Giants. Which means they'll try to half point me to death.
8. Bal @ Jac
Favored: Ravens by .5
Money: 54/46 with the line
CS: Baltimore by 3 to 4 pts
My take: I don't trust either of these teams. Baltimore is lucky to be undefeated and Jacksonville deconstructed themselves against SD. :think: The better defense is visiting and I'll let that sway me. Ravens.
9. LA @ TB
Favored: TB by 4.5
Money: 66/44 Tampa
CS: as much as 14 for the Bucs
My take: Tampa is hemorrhaging over thirty points a game, half the total LA has given up. But with the modes sampling what does that really mean? Hard to say. Tampa can be passed on, but LA hasn't proven they can do that. LA can be run on, but Tampa hasn't proven they can do that. That said, the Bucs run better than LA passes and they have Winston and home field. That should be worth three. Is it worth 4.5? A leap of faith then, Tampa.
10. SF @ Sea
Favored: Sea by 9.5
Money: 65/35 at 9 The half point is cheap.
CS: Around 10 pts for Seattle.
My take: I don't really understand the line or confidence here, even though my model has Seattle by 12. Seattle isn't even averaging the spread total. SF has put up points. I'm really uncomfortable with this game. What the heck. Give me SF to keep it closer or even win.
11. SD @ Ind
Favored: Ind by 2.5
Money: 55/45 Indy
CS: 4.5 Indy
My take: Another one I don't get. Indy can't stop anyone who can pass. SD is passing like nobody's business. I like SD to win outright or at least keep it within one.
12. Jets @ KC
Favored: KC by 2.5
Money: 54/46 with that line.
CS: KC by as much as 9.
My take: The Jets can play. KC has been uneven. But the Chiefs are tough at home...The Jets' Marshal is dinged and may not play but will not likely play effectively if he suits up. KC's Ware is getting it done. I can live with a fg difference and will take the Chiefs to get things moving in the right direction.
13. Pit @ Phi
Favored: Pit by 3.5
Money: 65/45 with the line
CS: by 7 for Philly
My take: The Steelers are within a half point of the third best offensive production in the league at present. And as is true of the three teams above them, they take real balance into a football game, passing for 270 and rushing for 135 on avg. Defensively, the Steelers are tied for 8th, which is remarkable when you consider how many passing yards they give up...no one runs on them though and that helps the sieve like secondary pressure for picks. The Eagles are a hard team to pass on, though they can be run on. Ultimately, they are stingy in the end zone, where it matters.
This game comes down to which balance you believe in more. I know the history of recent Steeler visits. I'll still take Pittsburgh to win a very good game.
14. Chi @ Dal
Favored: Dal by 5.5
Money: a near toss up.
CS: a two td Dallas victory.
My take: I don't care enough about this game to spend time with it. I'd say a comfortable 6 pt margin of victory is more likely and take the Cowboys to win at home and continue to progress a talented future king of Dallas.
15. Atl @ NO
Favored: Saints by 3.5
Money: 57/43 Saints
CS: 2 pt NO
My take: I have this one a high scoring even...someone has to win. I won't give the half point away, so I take the Falcons.
Where ESPN's line is off the main average I'll adjust. By way of, the first game, Arizona at Buffalo. ESPN has a difficult 4.5 line while most of the nation is taking odds with a point shaved off of that.
Week 3
1. Arz @ Buf
Favored: Arizona by 4.5
Money: 63/37 Cardinals
Computer sim: a four point margin for the Cardinals.
My take: The Cardinals are an excellent football team playing a team that just isn't. It could be a cake walk blow out, but it shouldn't be a loss. I like Palmer and company by nearly a td, so I'll take the points. Cardinals.
2. Den @ Cin
Favored: Cin by 2.5
Money: almost even 52/48 for the mild, mild upset.
CS: The cats, but by 2.
My take: I'm not sure how sure anyone can be here. My model likes the Bengals to cover at home. Two talented teams. I have Cincinnati closing the deal on this one by as much as 6, but my heart isn't buying in. I look at the Cats giving up around 8 pts total so far in the differential then factor in the Dalton hit in the face... I see that defense pressuring Andy into mistakes while Mr. Simulation dinks and dunks and leans on his running game, which Cin is about the worst at stopping so far this year, giving up around 138 yds a game. The Bengals are respectable against the pass, but Denver is third best so far at stopping what Cin does best and weakest (against the run) at what Cin doesn't do very well...so I'll have to take Denver until they falter or the Bengals hit them in the mouth instead.
3. Cle @ Mia
Favored:Fins at 9.5
Money: 57/43 in favor of that line
CS: 15 or better, Miami
My take: I really, really don't care outside of having to pick one of these teams to win. I have it Miami running away, but that's a really big line and McCown is one of the qbs who can have a day that leaves you scratching your wallet and staring into an empty head...or something. I hate games like this.
4. Det @ GB
Favored: GB by 7.5
Money: 58/42 for the Pack
CS: a 13 pt cushion for Green Bay
My take: Are the Pack and Rogers living off a fading reputation? Can the up and down Lions have a good week on the road? Yes and no and go with the Pack. The fact is that the Packers' air attack is averaging fewer than 200 yds and the running game isn't exactly wowing, with 89 yards a game putting them low middle of the, excuse me, pack. Good news? They're at home, where they tend to play good football. Detroit? You could argue their strength is GB's heel and that they put 39 on Indy on the road and mostly through the air before failing to find the end zone much at home against a lesser Titan's team. One reason why I hate most of the games this week...things like this. I've changed my pick twice while I was thinking about this game. Sheesh.
5. Oak @ Ten
Favored: Ten by 1.5...I mean, seriously... :mmph: Have I mentioned how much I hate this week's schedule yet?
Money: 60/40 for the Oakland upset.
CS: Ten big...by which I actually mean the Titans by a lot of points. I think the PC is broken. A virus maybe.
My take: In any event I'm taking the Titans to win a hard fought...I don't know. I'll take'em to cover anyway.
6. Min @ Car
Favored: Panthers by 6.5
Money: 55/45 Car
CS: Car by 8
My take: I have a late win by Carolina to cover, but just. These are two very good teams. Bradford gives them the best chance of taking a talented team who knows how deep into the playoffs, if they can keep him upright. Carolina continues to impress. But the missed factor here is defensive balance, which should see this game winner in the low 20s at best. All things being on par I'd say a 24-17 Panther win would be about right. If the offenses catch fire, I like it 34- 27 Carolina.
7. Was @ Gia
Favored: Gia by 4.5
Money: The real line is 3.5 and it's getting a nervous 55/45 for the Giants
CS: A nine-ish pt win for the Giants. So the computer is much more comfortable.
My take: Washington is already leaking confidence sucking information about locker room concerns. Is that to kick start their qb or begin the process of covering posteriors and setting the table for the next shift of coaches and staff? Hard to say. It's Washington. So far the Giants are doing a decent job of moving the ball. They're about middle of the pack on offensive yardage gained and they gain it with balance, but they're a woeful 26th in point production, meaning they're okay at moving it but not so great at red zone play. Defensively, they're playing respectable against the pass and are about as tough to run on as any team, behind only Green Bay, Pittsburgh and Seattle. They're tough in that red zone too, placing 7th in points allowed by a hair or two. Washington...stop the passing game and they're done. That puts a lot of pressure under center. Even the team is wondering if Cousins can get it done, which is a little unfair given the lack of help he's getting from that running game or from his defense, which is tied for 29th in points allowed.
Guess who I'm picking.
lain: Giants. Which means they'll try to half point me to death. 8. Bal @ Jac
Favored: Ravens by .5
Money: 54/46 with the line
CS: Baltimore by 3 to 4 pts
My take: I don't trust either of these teams. Baltimore is lucky to be undefeated and Jacksonville deconstructed themselves against SD. :think: The better defense is visiting and I'll let that sway me. Ravens.
9. LA @ TB
Favored: TB by 4.5
Money: 66/44 Tampa
CS: as much as 14 for the Bucs
My take: Tampa is hemorrhaging over thirty points a game, half the total LA has given up. But with the modes sampling what does that really mean? Hard to say. Tampa can be passed on, but LA hasn't proven they can do that. LA can be run on, but Tampa hasn't proven they can do that. That said, the Bucs run better than LA passes and they have Winston and home field. That should be worth three. Is it worth 4.5? A leap of faith then, Tampa.
10. SF @ Sea
Favored: Sea by 9.5
Money: 65/35 at 9 The half point is cheap.
CS: Around 10 pts for Seattle.
My take: I don't really understand the line or confidence here, even though my model has Seattle by 12. Seattle isn't even averaging the spread total. SF has put up points. I'm really uncomfortable with this game. What the heck. Give me SF to keep it closer or even win.
11. SD @ Ind
Favored: Ind by 2.5
Money: 55/45 Indy
CS: 4.5 Indy
My take: Another one I don't get. Indy can't stop anyone who can pass. SD is passing like nobody's business. I like SD to win outright or at least keep it within one.
12. Jets @ KC
Favored: KC by 2.5
Money: 54/46 with that line.
CS: KC by as much as 9.
My take: The Jets can play. KC has been uneven. But the Chiefs are tough at home...The Jets' Marshal is dinged and may not play but will not likely play effectively if he suits up. KC's Ware is getting it done. I can live with a fg difference and will take the Chiefs to get things moving in the right direction.
13. Pit @ Phi
Favored: Pit by 3.5
Money: 65/45 with the line
CS: by 7 for Philly
My take: The Steelers are within a half point of the third best offensive production in the league at present. And as is true of the three teams above them, they take real balance into a football game, passing for 270 and rushing for 135 on avg. Defensively, the Steelers are tied for 8th, which is remarkable when you consider how many passing yards they give up...no one runs on them though and that helps the sieve like secondary pressure for picks. The Eagles are a hard team to pass on, though they can be run on. Ultimately, they are stingy in the end zone, where it matters.
This game comes down to which balance you believe in more. I know the history of recent Steeler visits. I'll still take Pittsburgh to win a very good game.
14. Chi @ Dal
Favored: Dal by 5.5
Money: a near toss up.
CS: a two td Dallas victory.
My take: I don't care enough about this game to spend time with it. I'd say a comfortable 6 pt margin of victory is more likely and take the Cowboys to win at home and continue to progress a talented future king of Dallas.
15. Atl @ NO
Favored: Saints by 3.5
Money: 57/43 Saints
CS: 2 pt NO
My take: I have this one a high scoring even...someone has to win. I won't give the half point away, so I take the Falcons.
Quetzal
New member
Through two weeks the Cardinals are averaging 30.5 points per game (5th) and kept it close against New England. Simply put, I think Buffalo is outclassed here and the 4.5 points against Arizona isn't enough. Cardinals.
Denver's most impressive stat so far this year is their defensive passing yards allowed, 173. This is pretty good considering the teams they held those numbers against (Luck and Newton). Bottom line, Denver's defense has been a thorn in the side of some pretty good offensive units and I think they do it again here. A 2.5 point head start is also nice, my model has Denver by 3.
(If it makes you feel any better, it is Kessler under center this week.
)Stats aside, the Browns are a mess. They have... let me see here... Cody Kessler under center this week and they are simply hoping Miami decides to stay home. The line certainly agrees with 9.5 points rewarded to the Browns for their courage to step on to the field. Despite Miami's struggles last week, I see this being a clear bounce back. Too many question marks to go the other way. Dolphins.
I have no doubt that Green Bay can win this game, but I just can't shake that same feeling I had last week regarding Aaron and his synergy with his offense. Something is off, everyone says so. Then again, Detroit? 296 passing yards allowed in their first two outings does allow for easy pickins for Rodgers to try and bounce back. Heck, you know what, I have faith. Packers. (My model has Detroit, guess we will see who is right.)
Carr has been producing some very impressive numbers so far this season. Oakland is averaging over 30 points per game after two. Granted, this hot streak is unlikely to continue against the Titans, but it will be enough. Raiders.
This one could be a lot closer than folks might think. My model has Newton and company by a touchdown, so that covers the spread but just barely. The Vikings have signed Ronnie Hillman to help with the absence of Adrian Peterson but I do not see that production being much of anything against the Panther defense. It will be a squeeker with the line, but I like the Panthers here.
7. Was @ Gia
Favored: Gia by 4.5
Money: The real line is 3.5 and it's getting a nervous 55/45 for the Giants
CS: A nine-ish pt win for the Giants. So the computer is much more comfortable.
My take: Washington is already leaking confidence sucking information about locker room concerns. Is that to kick start their qb or begin the process of covering posteriors and setting the table for the next shift of coaches and staff? Hard to say. It's Washington. So far the Giants are doing a decent job of moving the ball. They're about middle of the pack on offensive yardage gained and they gain it with balance, but they're a woeful 26th in point production, meaning they're okay at moving it but not so great at red zone play. Defensively, they're playing respectable against the pass and are about as tough to run on as any team, behind only Green Bay, Pittsburgh and Seattle. They're tough in that red zone too, placing 7th in points allowed by a hair or two. Washington...stop the passing game and they're done. That puts a lot of pressure under center. Even the team is wondering if Cousins can get it done, which is a little unfair given the lack of help he's getting from that running game or from his defense, which is tied for 29th in points allowed.
Guess who I'm picking.
The Giants defense looked very good last week against Drew Brees and I am looking for a repeat performance here. Cruz is healthy and as much as I hate Eli, he has more than enough to take it to the shattered Washington defense. Giants by 7 or more.
A coin toss, really. I mean, on the one hand I think Bortles is a better QB in this matchup, however, I cannot have faith in the Jags defense that is allowing 30+ PPG so far this season. I am looking for Flacco to take advantage. Ravens.
In week one, Winston threw 4TD paired with 1 INT. In Week two, it got reversed with 4int and 1td respectively. I am looking for him to hit somewhere in the middle against the strict Rams defense. Keenum gives me no reason for confidence on the other side of the ball, so the choice isn't a tough one. Bucs.
Baldwin might be out and let's face it, Wilson hasn't been effective since his injury. On the otherside, the 49ers can actually score points against formidable defenses. With Seattle struggling, I am going with the 49ers on the road.
Rivers will probably be missing Antonio Gates this week, but I don't think it will matter. The Colts are in dead last for point allowed per game and Rivers has the capability of putting points on the board regardless. The Chargers will be challenged this week with Luck and company but I don't think it will be enough in a shoot out. Chargers.
Fitzy looked much better last week, however the question is how impactful is the loss of Brandon Marshall should he sit out? Meanwhile, Alex Smith struggled and is looking for redemption. Problem is, I do not see them being able to fix it over a week. With these ideas in mind, my model has the Jets. I agree.
Wentz is good but not that good. Big Ben looked a bit shaky but he is still averaging 3 touchdowns and 270ish passing yards. That in itself should be enough to cover. Steelers.
Hoyer stepping in for Cutler might been an upgrade!
At any rate, Dak is looking great and is starting to get chemistry with his offense. I look for them to rattle the cages of the Bears. Cowboys!Atlanta is looking great so far. Ryan is averaging 340+ yards and a pair of touchdowns to go with it. This is a team that, despite a 1-1 start, is looking capitalize. Falcons.
Quetzal
New member
:mmph: I think I might be done with pick'ems for awhile. Nothing is making any sense. Any team can seem to beat any team and it's all for grabs every week. Browns keeping it close against Miami, Vikings beating Carolina, Washington tipping off Eli, Cards drop it to the bills and Seattle decides to show up the one week I need them to stay home. It's frustrating and quite frankly not worth the effort.
:rotfl:
I tried to warn you and TH, but neither of you listened, and you both took the Steelers.
For whatever reasons, the Steelers never win in Philadelphia or Seattle.
The Steelers are now 0-9 at Philadelphia since 1965. They are 1-7 all-time at Seattle since 1977.
Never, ever, take the Steelers when they are playing at Philadelphia or Seattle, no matter what the point spread is.
Now for the bright side:
The last time the Steelers lost in Philadelphia was 2008. After the loss, the Steelers went on to win the Super Bowl. The Steelers also lost at Philadelphia in 1979, and then went on to win the Super Bowl.
As for Seattle, well.....the Steelers beat them in the Super Bowl.
So.......not winning in Philadelphia or Seattle is the end of the world. It could be worse, I could live in Cleveland.
Terrelle Pryor played WR, QB, and Safety for the Browns today.
He caught 8 passes for 144 yards.
He took 14 snaps at QB, was 3-5 for 35 yards.
He ran 4 times for 21 yards and 1 TD.
Terrell Pryor became the first NFL player to have at least three passing attempts, three rushing attempts and three receptions in the same game since Billy Kilmer did it for San Francisco in 1964.
Which is really close to the last time the Steelers won in Philadelphia.
Which is really close to the last time the Steelers won in Philadelphia.
So did nearly everyone who bet the game. I don't assign magic to numbers that don't directly relate to this team's performance. What I think a lot of us did was underrate Philly's qb and defense. Nicely done, Eagles.
Yeah. This is still the shake-out part of the season. It's hard to really get a firm handle on team tendencies until they're six to eight in. It's iffy at this point. I was worried about this week and took flyers against my own system at cost, but it didn't hurt me in the larger sense because just about everyone had their prognosticating clocks cleaned this week.
With the smattering of wins I managed I'm still in the 92 percentile against the spread and the 99 percentile straight up, on the strength of my first two weeks. Hopefully, next week will be better.
The bad news is Denver and New England look scary good.
The good news is that it's only Week #3
I flew by the seat of my pants in week one and did great. Went against my system in week two and fell two games behind it. This week was simply an odd one...but if I'd gone by my numbers I'd have seven wins and look like Nostradamus. So from here on out, I'm abandoning my instinct for number crunching.
Denver looks like, barring injury, it could be much improved this year. That's scary. New England is always good. The only question is whether Brady is still up for the home stretch.
I honestly didn't expect the Broncos to win in Cincinnati yesterday.
When he is up around 300, then he can talk.
Are you thinking that Cuban was right, that over saturation of the product is a problem. Couple it with some of the last few years of public black eyes over everything from violent crime to the perception generated by the deflate gate controversy, plus the growing concern over brain trauma and maybe we're seeing something to take note of...:think:
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