I may come back and post something about the ESPN business, but I'm in a mood and it's ridiculous that the games aren't up already, so I'm going to go on without them.
Week 5 Early Bird/at a glance
1. Arz @ SF
Consensus: has Arizona as a 3.5 favorite with 66% of the betting line in agreement.
Considering: With Palmer they're a different team, but the statute of limitations just ran out on respecting their former defensive body of work. Meanwhile SF continues to do nothing much to impress on either side of the ball.
Pick: Arizona, baring an injury report, by as little as 4 or as much as 9.
2. Ten @ Mia
Consensus: a game only their mothers could love sees the Fins a 3.5 favorite with 59% of the action going that way.
Considering: not much separating these two teams, with neither offense being appreciably better and Miami holding a marginal defensive edge, plus home field for the game.
Pick: I like the Dolphins and 4. But I only like them as a numeral. As a team they continue to do the year after year mediocrity polka, typically jazzing it up mid to mid-late in the season before falling back to predictable also ran status at the close of regular play.
3. NE @ Cle
Consensus: 73% of the betting action is ready for a Pats by 10.5 line.
Considering: Even a rusty Brady should out perform what we've seen without him and, with the exception of a phenomenal Bills defensive scheme against an over-matched rookie last week, has been pretty darn good. Cleveland is a mess.
Pick: I like New England by between 12 to 16 pts so I'll take the line, large as it is.
4. Hou @ Min
Consensus: the Vikings are a modest 6 pt favorite and 73% of those with money to spend will wave it in that direction.
Considering: Houston has something to prove while the Vikings are looking to solidify their new impression as the potential big dog in their division. Certainly Green Bay isn't putting the fear of Rodgers into anyone lately.
Pick: the Vikings are just better. They're better on both sides of the ball and they're at home. Six points? I'd take 12 on a dare.
5. Chi @ Ind
Consensus: Chicago is a 4.5 pick for 61%.
Considering: both teams are defensive liabilities, but Indy has a better and more aggressive offense. How big a question mark is the Bears offense? Well, their starting qb might not play and no one in the Windy City is exactly sure if that helps or hurts their chances more.
Pick: I'll take Indy and have it between 6 and 7.
6. Phi @ Det
Consensus: 72% like Philly at 3.
Considering: The Eagles are a real surprise story so far in the young season, given the upheavals there in recent years. So when they opened the season by opening a can on Cleveland and Chicago, eyebrows raised. Not much, because we all know those are awful teams, but they raised...and then they spanked a very good Steelers team. The thing I like about Wentz is that he plays smart. He takes what's there. So he can play big or small, but he mostly plays smart. Will a book catch him by late season? Maybe, but right now he's doing it well. Detroit is starting to look like the Saints that wasted Archie's career.
Pick: this is one of those games I hate, where the model is all over the board without a clear statistical most likely...Detroit could slug hard enough to keep it close, but I tend to see a larger outcome, with Philly up by between two to three tds and with a fg line I have to take the Eagles.
7. Jets @ Pit
Consensus: 62% like a 7 pt line for Pit.
Considering: the Steelers really let me down against Philly. The Jests did the same to me last week, against Seattle. Both teams make me nervous by dropping games by double digits. Pittsburgh was the worst, given. That said, this is a home game for a Steelers team that got their A game back by crushing the Chiefs. The problem is that outside of flurries by Pittsburgh, the offenses haven't really separated and defensively, well, the Steelers give up way too much through the air.
Pick: I'm going with the home team for now, but this game makes me nervous. I can see it closer than the 6 and by as much as 12 for the Steelers.
8. Was @ Bal
Consensus: the Ravens are a 4 pt favorite on an evenly split money line.
Considering: Washington can win this, can win any game against a mid-level team, which is what Baltimore has become, but will they? Until Oakland, they hadn't given up more than 20 pts through the first three games. Was that a hiccup? Washington has only really beaten opponents you'd expect...so which is Baltimore?
Pick: I like the better defense at home. I'll take the Ravens to cover and then some.
9. Atl @ Den
Consensus: 53% take Den and 6 pts.
Considering: The Falcons are a legitimate ball club, but they're playing in Mile High against the best defense in the league. If they can win this or play within a fg it's time to start taking them very seriously. Not likely to happen, but just in case. Forget the close Carolina game, that's a running qb match up problem and an offense that still plays conservatively against good defense. Atlanta has a decent, but not intimidating defense. Denver can move the ball against it. But can that amazing Atlanta offense really elevate at elevation? We're about to find out. No one is playing the pass better than Denver so far. And they're stout against the run too.
Pick: Denver by as much as 8.
10. Cin @ Dal
Consensus: Bengals by 1.5 with 67% taking.
Considering: two teams with talent who are well matched. If it's close I like the Bengals. Going away I like Dallas by as much as 10. It's that sort of game.
Pick: I'll take the going away/home team for a mild upset and a continuing solidification of the brewing qb controversy in Dallas.
11. Buf @ LA
Consensus: even money.
Considering: no one is sure what they're getting out of these teams week to week and that's the problem. Neither team is playing great defense. Neither passes the ball particularly well. Buffalo is streaky, which is worrisome, but they run the ball well and LA hasn't really done much to contain the run, so...
Pick: I like the Bills by better than a fg, so at even money, I'm in.
12. SD @ Oak
Consensus: Raiders by 4.5 at 56% of the action.
Considering: two teams that can beat you silly on offense, but whose defenses sputter and start. It's all about timing. San Diego lost a narrow one at home last week while Oak found a way to edge Baltimore while on the road. :think:
Pick: I'd rather have this one by a fg. I'll take the Chargers to keep it closer.
13. Gia @ GB
Consensus: GB and 7 with the action about evenly split.
Considering: is anyone scared of either of these teams? The Pack is playing bland offense, about dead center of the averages, and better defense, ranked 12th in points allowed. The Giants...reverse that, forgetting last week's debacle. The offense has been productive while the defense has been Saint like (in the newer, not so good way).
Pick: Packers by anywhere from 7 to 9 or more.
14. TB @ Car
Consensus: no early line or money as of yet.
Considering: The Bucs are awful. 20th offensively speaking and 26th on defense. Carolina is having troubles against some pretty good teams. This isn't one of them.
Pick: Panthers by as much as 13.
