You guys are better picking the games than I am. But then again.... I really only pay attention to the Bronco games. 
NFL 2016
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Quetzal
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I am not very good myself, looking to break even this week. Which would be a vast improvement over last week.You guys are better picking the games than I am. But then again.... I really only pay attention to the Bronco games.
lain:
So far so good. I'm going into tonight tied for 34th place out of the 100k+ playing straight up and I'm in the top percentile against the line. I'm going to savor it on the chance I take a tumble somewhere along the line.You guys are better picking the games than I am. But then again.... I really only pay attention to the Bronco games.
Quetzal
New member
:first:
Alright, what did you guys think of Wentz? He looked fantastic last night despite his numbers leaning the other way. If his supporting cast can pull themselves up a bit more, the Eagles are turning into a team to be reckoned with. I just hope Wentz takes care of himself because he got clobbered a few times last night. Next week he takes on Big Ben but until then I break even.
8-8
Closing thoughts
My model needs a few adjustments here and there but I am overall pleased given my improvement from last week. Good news is there is a bit more data that is accurate to this season that I can use in lieu of last years stats and wondering if the same teams can deliver.
Get that model off the runway. She forgot to shave her legs.
Hard to say what's going to happen, but it was a great opening couple for me. I'm 34th straight up and in the 100% group and 554th and in the 100% against the line on ESPN.
On the game that rounded out an 11-5 week for me...Chicago...they couldn't pass the ball. They couldn't catch the ball. They couldn't run the ball. Wentz looked...okay. Solid enough numbers not to hurt his team. The yards per tell me he played dink and dunk. The 1 td to 0 int tells me he game managed effectively. Philly had 47 tackles, including six qb hits and 3 sacks. The Bears defense had 57 tackles, but only got to Wentz 3 times on the night, with two of those ending in sacks. Let the hunt for Lamar Jackson begin in the Windy City.
lain:To be fair to Cutler, who only had 17 passes when a thumb injury brought Captain Pine into the game...no, he was bad. The biggest disappointment to talent ratio in the NFL at the position.
Quetzal
New member
What do you think of Cutler if he was behind a offensive line that... well... didn't suck?Get that model off the runway. She forgot to shave her legs.
Hard to say what's going to happen, but it was a great opening couple for me. I'm 34th straight up and in the 100% group and 554th and in the 100% against the line on ESPN.
On the game that rounded out an 11-5 week for me...Chicago...they couldn't pass the ball. They couldn't catch the ball. They couldn't run the ball. Wentz looked...okay. Solid enough numbers not to hurt his team. The yards per tell me he played dink and dunk. The 1 td to 0 int tells me he game managed effectively. Philly had 47 tackles, including six qb hits and 3 sacks. The Bears defense had 57 tackles, but only got to Wentz 3 times on the night, with two of those ending in sacks. Let the hunt for Lamar Jackson begin in the Windy City.
To be fair to Cutler, who only had 17 passes when a thumb injury brought Captain Pine into the game...no, he was bad. The biggest disappointment to talent ratio in the NFL at the position.
The Archie Manning argument? :think: I don't see Cutler ever really being more than a very solid qb. Really good with help, but he's closer to a more physically gifted Trent Dilfer, without Dilfer's motor, than Archie. Except for his first year with Chicago and this one his average qb rating has been pretty consistently mid to upper 80s. I'd expect mid 20s tds to mid teens ints. He's had one year in his career finishing in the low 90s. Put him on the Cowboys and he might mangle people, because he has the tools. But if you aren't one qb away from challenging he's not going to really help you enough.What do you think of Cutler if he was behind a offensive line that... well... didn't suck?
Lots of teams would love to have him, but they wouldn't end up any happier than Chicago is now. The teams he could impact don't need him...except maybe his old team. I think Denver could resurrect his at large respect level. But that's not happening. So he'll ride out a couple of years somewhere, if he wants to. He may have enough in the bank to walk away and let's face it, does anyone believe Cutler is in this for the love of the game?
Quetzal
New member
It's fun to think about. I know you and I have kicked around that same idea surrounding Rivers. Well, as the old saying goes: "If 'ifs' and 'buts' were berries and nuts, we would all have a merry Christmas."
Terelle Pryor is the best QB on the Brown's active roster right now.
However, he is their wide receiver.
Only in Cleveland.........
However, he is their wide receiver.
Only in Cleveland.........
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@ Quetzal and TH.
Before you pick the Steelers at Eagles game:
The Steelers haven't won at Philadelphia since 1965.
The Steelers are 0-8 at Philadelphia since 1965.
Before you pick the Steelers at Eagles game:
The Steelers haven't won at Philadelphia since 1965.
The Steelers are 0-8 at Philadelphia since 1965.
Quetzal
New member
This is fun to think about, current line rewards philly with a 3.5 point head start. Will need to crunch the numbers and get back to you. CleverDan
:thumb:
I'm just going to think aloud here for a minute, noodle the process on tonight's game.
Houston @ New England
The line here is a stunning .5 in favor of the Pats.
Think about that for a moment. They're on their 3rd string qb. He didn't put up a score in relief last week, though his per pass avg yds was decent. Miami almost caught up to that lead he couldn't really protect. They're playing a team in Houston that is relatively healthy and coming in having put up 29 and 21, respectively on their opening opponents while giving up fewer than 2 tds to either. New England will have to hold the Texans under their lowest output while putting up at least 2 tds plus pts. But here's the truly curious part, the line thinks they can, maybe. And the money is running nearly even, with 46/54 taking a flyer on Bill and company pulling a Foxborough miracle.
I think it has to do with the Arizona game. New England muted a great offense with smart defensive scheming. The thought is that this Houston team isn't as good and can actually be held under that 3 td total. And I'd agree it's possible, though it's also possible that the Pats did just enough on offense to keep that defense off the field a little more (NE 34 minutes, Arizona 26 minutes) and just enough on defense to shock...which means they must, must find an offensive rhythm and play a near perfect game to pull off the upset.
Call: No. There's a limit on what you can do. By model I actually agree with the line and have it 21-20 NE, but that simply can't be right. You can't overcome that sort of talent/experience hit, even at home, against a team that looks like a legitimate contender. I'm taking Houston to continue to establish its mark and New England to take an understandable hit, even at home. Houston.
SaulToPaul 2
Well-known member
Wonder if the Vikings are scared to come to Charlotte. :noid:
No, but everyone should be. . .even tourists.
That should be a really entertaining game. You need to get to their qb and rattle him early, but you have the defense to do it and they're going to be one dimensional.
Quetzal
New member
I am right there with you, here is my write up for tonight's contest.
My Call: This is actually a tough call. New England is relying on a rookie QB against one of the fiercest defenses in the league. Blount will certainly get plenty of looks, but how far does that take you? On the other side, Brock could very well pick apart a struggling NE defense that has averaged 320 passing yards against. It looks like Gronk will be suiting up tonight so that helps out quite a bit, but I am not convinced. My model has this game scoring 20-21 in favor of Houston given the big question mark under center for the Pats. That isn't much wiggle room but it is good enough for me. Houston.
Carson Wentz, Dak Prescott, Jacoby Brissett, and Cody Kessler are all rookies that will start at QB this weekend, and they have something in common. They won't be watching from the bench like top pick Jared Goff under Jeff Fisher. I don't understand him any more. And then there is Trevor Siemian.
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Quetzal
New member
Yeah I don't get it. Keenum isn't wowing anyone with his goose egg under the TD category. I think if they had lost their show down with Seattle last week, we would be seeing the ol' switcheroo.
Quetzal
New member
After the first half my big question is: why are the Texans running the ball against a defense that currently ranked 28th against the pass? I don't get it. A lot of questionable decisions coming from the Texans camp and they need to work it if they hope to have a chance in this game.
Well, another first game miss...I should have followed he model. But I just couldn't see what happened happening except on paper. Hopefully the rest of the games will follow their last couple of week trends and I won't care about the loss by Sunday night. This was about as embarrassing a loss as you could ask for if you're a Texan fan. And it makes two profound statements that will irk a couple of people here. First, Bill is cementing a reputation as one of the greatest coaches to ever scheme in the NFL. Secondly, it raises the legitimate question of how much of Brady's legend is his and how much of it is the system and coaching. I'm not suggesting Brady isn't a great qb, only noting that seemingly anyone they plug into that position finds measurable success. Even a third stringer didn't embarrass himself.
On the game itself. Houston's plan was a head scratcher. They had to know the Pats would lean on the run, but didn't or couldn't stop it anyway. They tried to run because their overpaid qb couldn't get it done. He threw the ball 41 times and only connected on 24. Brock's QBR was atrocious.
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