Top physicist on climate change....
- Thread starter Nathon Detroit
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I think Dyson is right about the two pronged nature of the motivation of the champions of the climate change notion but I question his conclusions concerning one of those prongs. Obviously academic tenure and scientific funding accounts for the monetary aspect of it in academia but I think he misses the fact that his chosen political allegiance and those who craft it are responsible for the other aspect of it that he sees as some mysterious cosmic itching powder. When you ally yourself with a political party you expose yourself to them saying things that might and usually does come back to embarrass you and the folks that fund this sort of thing in academics and politics are one and the same.
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But you guys never said there would be "weather variation".
There wasn't supposed to be a "pause".
It was supposed to keep getting warmer. The polar ice was supposed to melt, the oceans were supposed to rise, winters were supposed to be mild, snowfall was supposed to be scarce, etc.
Again, do you want me to post all the quotes from climatologists that said these things?
Why do you keep listening to people who have been wrong over and over and over again?
Did you not see my earlier post that showed numerous quotes from years ago by global warming alarmists who said there wouldn't be snowfall due to global warming?
Don't you realize how foolish you guys look?
First you guys say there won't be snowfall because of mild winters due to global warming. That didn't happen, it got really cold, Boston got 124 inches of snow, and now you claim the 124 inches of snow is because of "climate change".
People are laughing at you. How do you expect anyone to take you serous?
Who ever said there would not be weather variation? Would you care to cite a source for that claim?
"For a ‘pause’ to be distinctive, it must deviate below the longer-term trend more than previous periods deviated above the longer-term trend – otherwise, it can be considered just a fluctuation like others observed in the past." -- https://www.skepticalscience.com/blind-test-economists-no-pause.html
Polar ice is melting: http://grist.org/science/arctic-ice-melt-sets-yet-another-record/
Sea levels are rising:
1) https://www.skepticalscience.com/sea-level-rise-intermediate.htm
2) https://www.skepticalscience.com/sea-level-rise-predictions-intermediate.htm
Global warming decreases the likeliness of snowstorm conditions in warmer, southern regions. However, in northern, colder regions, temperatures are often too cold for very heavy snow so warming can bring more favourable snowstorm conditions. This is borne out in observations. Over the last century, there has been a downward trend in snowstorms across the lower Midwest, South and West Coast. Conversely, there's been an increase in snowstorms in the upper Midwest East, and Northeast with the overall national trend also upwards.
To claim that record snowfall is inconsistent with a warming world betrays a lack of understanding of the link between global warming and extreme precipitation. Global temperatures in the last few months of record snowfall are some of the hottest on record. Warming causes more moisture in the air which leads to more extreme precipitation events. This includes more heavy snowstorms in regions where snowfall conditions are favourable. Far from contradicting global warming, record snowfall is predicted by climate models and consistent with our expectation of more extreme precipitation events.
To claim that record snowfall is inconsistent with a warming world betrays a lack of understanding of the link between global warming and extreme precipitation. Global temperatures in the last few months of record snowfall are some of the hottest on record. Warming causes more moisture in the air which leads to more extreme precipitation events. This includes more heavy snowstorms in regions where snowfall conditions are favourable. Far from contradicting global warming, record snowfall is predicted by climate models and consistent with our expectation of more extreme precipitation events.
Read more here: https://www.skepticalscience.com/Record-snowfall-disproves-global-warming.htm
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ClimateSanity
New member
User Name said:
You cite two articles from your overcited skeptical science. John Cook is refuted by several papers. The following assessment of the one of the papers follows here:
"A scientific study by the Hebrew University of Jerusalem has closely examined data from the measurement stations located mainly at the coasts and reached the result that sea level rise calculations were exaggerated upwards. In the study Michael Beenstock and colleagues reached the result that sea level rise on a global average is only 1 millimeter and that by the end of the century it will rise only 10 centimeters; only 1/3 of the stations showed a detectable rise, 61% showed no movement and 4% showed a drop.”
The peer reviewed paper is " Tide gauge location and the measurement of global sea level rise"
Authors: Michael Beenstock, Daniel Felsenstein, Eyal Frank, and Yaniv Reingewertz.
ClimateSanity
New member
Perhaps this is evidence of local climate change. You would need many more cases of long term warming changes to local climates to make a case for global change. There would also have to be a paucity of long term changes in cooling in local areas. I am not sure todays' so called "climatologists" are even looking for such changes. Their warming bias will cause resistance to even considering such changes.
Here's what you guys do. You compare the polar ice with 1980. 1980 was the apex of the "mini ice age" from the 60's and 70's.
Yes the polar ice is less now than 1980. But, the polar ice increased 533,000 square miles from 2012 to 2013.
The polar ice increasing 533,000 sq. miles goes against everything the global warming alarmists said. They said the ice would keep melting, it wasn't supposed to gain 533,000 sq miles in one year.
ClimateSanity
New member
His graph shows a 1.7 mm a year rise since 1870. The fact that sea level is rising is not disputed. It has been rising since the height of the little ice age at roughly 2 mm per year based on my memory. Your contention is that sea level rise has been accelerating. You cited John Cook and that is the point he was making. If you were simply claiming sea level has been rising.....no one with any sense disputes that. If that is all you were claiming, why cite someone pushing an acceleration?
Show me one article from a global warming climatologist prior to 2010 who said global warming would cause increased snowfall?
I already showed you a quote from the IPCC and numerous climatologists who said global warming would decrease snowfall.
Again, why do you keep believing people who keep changing the goal posts, and are wrong 100% of the time?
From NASA: 2015 Arctic Sea Ice Maximum Annual Extent Is Lowest On Record
A short-term fluctuation < a long-term trend.
That's from February. Try reading a more current article that shows this fall's ice.
Here is a graph from today:
From the NY Times:
Obama to Call for More Icebreakers in Arctic as U.S. Seeks Foothold
Why is Obama ordering more ice-breakers if he believes in global warming. Al Gore said there wouldn't be any polar ice today.
Obama to Call for More Icebreakers in Arctic as U.S. Seeks Foothold
Why is Obama ordering more ice-breakers if he believes in global warming. Al Gore said there wouldn't be any polar ice today.
A study of 20th century snowstorms published in the August 2006 issue of the Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, before the big storms of recent years, found that most major snowstorms in the United States occurred during warmer-than-normal years. The climatologists who authored the paper — the late Stanley Changnon, a scientist with the Illinois State Water Survey, David Changnon, a professor with the Northern Illinois University department of geography, and Thomas R. Karl director of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Climatic Data Center — predicted that "a warmer future climate will generate more winter storms.''
That outcome was especially dramatic in 2010, when storms walloped the Atlantic states — most notably, a back-to-back punch only one day apart in February of that year that broke records in many major cities and, in Washington, D.C., became known as "Snowmageddon.''
The basic science behind snow and its relationship to climate change is fairly straightforward. Warmer temperatures cause more water to evaporate into the atmosphere, and warmer air holds more water than cooler air. The air's water-holding capacity, in fact, rises about 7 percent with each 1 degree Celsius (1.8 degrees Fahrenheit) of warming. The warming results in air that becomes supersaturated with water, often bringing drenching rainfall, followed by flooding or, if it is cold enough, heavy and intense snowfall.
That outcome was especially dramatic in 2010, when storms walloped the Atlantic states — most notably, a back-to-back punch only one day apart in February of that year that broke records in many major cities and, in Washington, D.C., became known as "Snowmageddon.''
The basic science behind snow and its relationship to climate change is fairly straightforward. Warmer temperatures cause more water to evaporate into the atmosphere, and warmer air holds more water than cooler air. The air's water-holding capacity, in fact, rises about 7 percent with each 1 degree Celsius (1.8 degrees Fahrenheit) of warming. The warming results in air that becomes supersaturated with water, often bringing drenching rainfall, followed by flooding or, if it is cold enough, heavy and intense snowfall.
Source: http://www.livescience.com/48874-warming-climate-produces-more-snow-storms.html
Perhaps they were mistaken?
One major problem with your article. The article says there will be more snow due to warmer temperatures.
Boston had record snowfall last year.
It wasn't because it was warm in Boston.
Boston recorded 28 straight days with lows 20 degrees or colder from Jan. 25 through Feb. 21, a record stretch.
The month of February, was the coldest February ever recorded in Boston.
I spent a number of days in Boston last winter, I saw the snow and felt the cold.
It didn't snow because it was warm, it snowed because it was freezing cold.
Once again, the people you follow are dead wrong, but you keep following them.
Okay, sure thing. Here's an article from last month: Arctic Sea Ice Summertime Minimum Is Fourth Lowest on Record
No, they were dead wrong.
They have been wrong since they told us an ice age was coming back in the 60's and 70's.
I grew up in the 70's, I remember all the ice age predictions. In the early 70's we were taught about the upcoming ice age in science class.
Maybe you're too young to remember what climatologists said back then.
If so, watch this:
| The Coming Ice Age - 1978 | |
Ok, now you just went from #1 to #4
You went from the lowest on record to one of the lowest on record over a period of 6 months.