NFL 2018 Season Starts Tonight

[Idolater]

This game was way closer than the score indicates right now. Colts were within 7 late in the 3rd, if not the early 4th. Pats are not head and shoulders above Indy, and Luck still has the guts and the ability he had before his injury.

 

[Town Heretic]

This game was way closer than the score indicates right now. Colts were within 7 late in the 3rd, if not the early 4th. Pats are not head and shoulders above Indy, and Luck still has the guts and the ability he had before his injury.

Yeah, it's a foreseeable outcome. NE hit the outside for me. Indy got off to too slow a start or it's right in the sweet spot. And another opening loss week for me, though last week rebounded well enough. :cheers:

 

[drbrumley]

Indianapolis Colts 1-3
New England Patriots 2-2 (-10.5)

Taking the Patriots

1-0 WoooooHooooo

 

[Town Heretic]

Indianapolis Colts 1-3
New England Patriots 2-2 (-10.5)

Good job. Indy needed a first half.

Atlanta Falcons 1-3
Pittsburgh Steelers 1-2-1 (-3.5)

I like Atlanta in this one to keep it closer or win outright. But it's a desperation game for both. It will be interesting to see who starts clawing their way out of that hole.

Tennessee Titans 3-1
Buffalo Bills 1-3 (+3.5)

I have this a dead heat, 3 pt pick'em. So I have to decide about sticking with the rule or going with the hot hand. The hot hand burned me in the opener...subject to change before Sunday I'm taking the Titans.

Miami Dolphins 3-1
Cincinnati Bengals 3-1 (-6.5)

The Fins didn't travel well last week. The Bengals are a tough team. That's a big line, but I'll go with it.

Baltimore Ravens 3-1
Cleveland Browns 1-2-1 (+2.5)

Another one literally right at my margin and a half point beyond, but someone has to win and I like the way Baltimore is playing.

Denver Broncos 2-2
New York Jets 1-3 (-0.5)

I'm in with the Jests at home over a suspect Denver offense, on or off road.

Green Bay Packers 2-1-1
Detroit Lions 1-3 (+1.5)

Another smart bet I'm not going to take. Lions.

Jacksonville Jaguars 3-1
Kansas City Chiefs 4-0 (-3.5)

That Jags defense makes me doubt the big play oriented Chiefs. I think this is the week they stop being undefeated. That or it's 25-21 Chiefs and I'm wishing the week would go away, but I'll stick with Jacksonville.

New York Giants 1-3
Carolina Panthers 2-1 (-6.5)

Can't go with the G-men against a rested Panthers in their backyard. I have it 29-19 Carolina. So we'll have to see if Eli catches fire or if Newton runs himself into trouble against that defense.

Oakland Raiders 1-3
Los Angeles Chargers 2-2 (-5.5)

The Chargers are the better team, but are they five and a half better. The half is killing me. I'm taking Oakland to stay closer.

Los Angeles Rams 4-0
Seattle Seahawks 2-2 (+7.5)

Should be a good test. I like them to win, but I'm not sold on that big a number and will take Seattle to keep them honest.

Minnesota Vikings 1-2-1
Philadelphia Eagles 2-2 (-3.5)

Another I have by a fg...man, I thought I was over this last week. The rule says Minnesota. My heart says Philly. I'm going heart.

Arizona Cardinals 0-4
San Francisco 49ers 1-3 (-4.5)

No one should have to call this one. But if I have to I'm going to say SF, if only because they're home.

Dallas Cowboys 2-2
Houston Texans 1-3 (-3.5)

Houston's chance to keep mo. Houston in a low scoring 24-19 affair.

Washington Redskins 2-1
New Orleans Saints 3-1 (-6.5)

That's a really solid Skin's defense and a better offense than people realize. I'm not sure if they can win, but I feel better about their chances to keep it within a fg or two.

 

[Town Heretic]

So I went to house sit for my father before realizing, Sunday, around ten a.m., that I hadn't set my picks at ESPN yet. No sheet. Panic ensued. Looking back at my predictions I'm happy for it. Well, not happy. but happier than I would have been.


So I lost the opener with Indy not keeping it as close as they should have. 0-1

Miami Dolphins at Cincinnati Bengals (-6, 48)

I took the Bengals to cover on that one after the Fins let me down the week prior. Thought it would be a little higher scoring game, 32-21, but my line was about spot on. 1-1

Jacksonville Jaguars at Kansas City Chiefs (-3, 49)

This is my "Whew" game for the week. I talked myself into the Jags, then lost my sheet (well, didn't take it with me) as I was hurriedly inputting the games before the bell Sunday and just took the Chiefs on a roll. A good day to misplace numbers. 2-1

New York Giants at Carolina Panthers (-6.5, 43.5)

I went with Carolina here. Surprised by the Giants offensive production IN Carolina. No explanation for it. One of those games. 2-2

Denver Broncos at New York Jets (+1, 42.5)

I took the Jests at home. No real confidence in that Bronco offense. 3-2

Atlanta Falcons at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3, 57.5)

In no way shape or form saw this one coming. 3-3

Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns (+3, 45.5)

In no way shape or form saw this one coming. 3-4

Tennessee Titans at Buffalo Bills (+5.5, 40)

Completely saw this one coming. 4-4

Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions (-1, 51)

Was proud of myself for taking the Lions and wondering about the division within GB, along with the legs of Rodgers. 5-4

Oakland Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers (-5, 52.5)

Agonized over this one. Thought I'd settled on the Raiders, but went with a team I've been touting all year. Whew part II. 6-4

Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers (-3.5, 40.5)

Had the next two right at the line. Decided to go home team. 7-4

Minnesota Vikings at Philadelphia Eagles (-3, 47)

Had this one right at the line and decided to go home team. 7-5

Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks (+7.5, 50)

Loved the Rams, but not in Seattle to win big. A much needed win. 8-5

Dallas Cowboys at Houston Texans (-3.5, 45.5)

Had this one right at the line. Went with the home team. 8-6

Washington Redskins

at New Orleans Saints (-6, 52.5)

I like Washington's defense and could see them winning outright. So this is for the tie and a bland week or for a slightly better than "meh" week. Tough any way you look at it. And... I see I went with NO earlier. But I might as well go gut here and hope for near double digit wins in a disastrous week.

And next week (well, this week) I'm picking early. Nothing worse than that "I forgot my homework" feeling.

 

[Jerry Shugart]

But I might as well go gut here and hope for near double digit wins in a disastrous week.

And next week (well, this week) I'm picking early. Nothing worse than that "I forgot my homework" feeling.

Now you know how the rest of us feel. By the way, my dog ate my homework!

 

[Town Heretic]

Now you know how the rest of us feel. By the way, my dog ate my homework!

Should have stayed with NO, but if an 8-8 is the worst that happens to me I'm okay. It happens at least a couple of times in a given year. The double digits insulate me. I'm ahead of 97% of the folks playing the ESPN Pick'em against the line. So it's been a shocker for a few this week.

Need to look ahead and see what's going on with week 6, so of course the hurricane has cancelled school tomorrow and we were already scheduled for a brief break starting Friday. So that leaves Thursday to take a stab at just about everything. :mmph:

 

[Jerry Shugart]

Philadelphia -3
At NY Giants

I'll take the Eagles and give the points.

At Minnesota -10.5
Arizona

I'll take the points and the Cardinals.

LA Chargers -1
At Cleveland

I'll take the Chargers and give the point.

Chicago -3
At Miami

The Bears will win by more than 3 points.

At Washington -1
Carolina

Carolina in a mild upset.

At Houston -8
Buffalo

Buffalo will surprise so I take the 8 points.

At New England -3.5
Kansas City

Got to go with my fellow Red Raider in an upset!

At Green Bay -9.5
San Francisco

I take the 49ers and the points.

 

[Town Heretic]

I'll take a shot at everything by tomorrow. And I was just talking to a friend of mine about all of this I want to repost something important to me. He had mentioned I have a very successful algorithm and it's true. Anyone following me over the years knows I average double digit wins against the line each year. That said, this year is different and it's important everyone realize that:

I only do this for fun. There's no real ego involved and I don't bet or believe in wagering. My only reservation about doing this publicly was that someone might use it that way. I try to let people know that especially this year I could crash and burn any given week. I'm not running the more tried and true system because of the time/work constraints and I don't want anyone relying on years of similar performances set out here to use my work in a speculative bid to enrich themselves by risking capital. It could turn ugly at any moment. I'm half guessing/half figuring this year. That's actually making it more fun for me, but the downside is enormous for anyone relying on it.

There. That should at least give anyone tempted reason to refrain from gambling on this hand. I'll probably do pretty well. I should. I've been studying the game for decades, but don't rely on me this year if you have the itch. I'm not really trying to win so much as make the game interesting for me.

 

[Town Heretic]

Okay, starting with tonight then.

1. Phi (2.5) @ Gia: this would have been a laugher a couple of games ago. The smart money is moving 69/31 in favor of the line and a Philly cover.

The Eagles have yet to win on the road. The Giants have yet to win at home...Philly likes to pass first but runs effectively while giving up yards through the air and not so much on the ground. The Giants move the ball largely through the air and don't run very effectively, while being decent against the pass and not very good at run stopping. The Eagles don't have a running game at present, so they'll have to play into the Giants' strength. The Giants will have to use an underutilized running game to win against Philly. It looks to be a low scoring game.

I have it low scoring and dead even, so I'm taking the dog and hoping for a Giants upset.

2. TB @ Atl (3.5): there are only two questions going in. Will Atlanta give up this early in the season and will the Bucs have a new qb bounce and surprise. It's 73/27 for that Atlanta cover.

Shouldn't be a close contest. I have the Falcons covering going away absent that switch bump. More likely a 25-31 Atlanta contest.

3. Buf @ Hou (7.5): that's an ambitious line, with the response running 56/44 against it and for the underdog Bills. But if Houston plays up to potential it just shouldn't be a hard cover. I have it closer to 19-27 cover...which really is at the margin. Could be larger though. I could see it a 30+ to teen victory for the Texans. Allen is pick prone and the Texans should apply pressure early and often.

4. Chi (2.5) @ Mia: that's a short line for a Bears team that is loaded with defensive talent and appeared to find its offensive rhythm before the off week. The money is running 73/27 with. Vegas is looking more at a 6 pt win. In a fg contest you'd have to like the visiting team because of the difference in defense. I like it 26-20 Bears.

5. Pit @ Cin (2.5): and the money runs 53/47 against. Meaning everyone is nervous about this game. I have it between a 2 to 6 pt likely win for the Bengals. But the way they won against the Falcons, a team that shares many of the same weaknesses as Cin, I'm inclined to stretch for the Steelers and see the low, half point difference as the outcome.

6. SD (.5) @ Cle: it's 66/44 for the cover. I have it anywhere from dead even to a 6 pt Chargers victory. So I'm torn. On the one hand I don't have a scenario where the Browns win outright. On the other, I do have one with a tie in it...the greater likelihood is a cover/victory for the visiting team. The Chargers have only really lost against two of the best teams in football now, KC and the Rams. And they were in both contests...so as much as I like the Browns growth and even seeing the potential upset here, I'm staying with the easier and more likely play.

7. Ind @ Jets (2.5): it's a wan 56/44 support for the cover. I like it a 7 to two score difference with the home team winning out.

I'll update/finish this later.

 

[drbrumley]

Okay, starting with tonight then.

1. Phi (2.5) @ Gia: this would have been a laugher a couple of games ago. The smart money is moving 69/31 in favor of the line and a Philly cover.

The Eagles have yet to win on the road. The Giants have yet to win at home...Philly likes to pass first but runs effectively while giving up yards through the air and not so much on the ground. The Giants move the ball largely through the air and don't run very effectively, while being decent against the pass and not very good at run stopping. The Eagles don't have a running game at present, so they'll have to play into the Giants' strength. The Giants will have to use an underutilized running game to win against Philly. It looks to be a low scoring game.

I have it low scoring and dead even, so I'm taking the dog and hoping for a Giants upset.

Im taking the Eagles....

 

[drbrumley]

I'll take a shot at everything by tomorrow. And I was just talking to a friend of mine about all of this I want to repost something important to me. He had mentioned I have a very successful algorithm and it's true. Anyone following me over the years knows I average double digit wins against the line each year. That said, this year is different and it's important everyone realize that:

I only do this for fun. There's no real ego involved and I don't bet or believe in wagering. My only reservation about doing this publicly was that someone might use it that way. I try to let people know that especially this year I could crash and burn any given week. I'm not running the more tried and true system because of the time/work constraints and I don't want anyone relying on years of similar performances set out here to use my work in a speculative bid to enrich themselves by risking capital. It could turn ugly at any moment. I'm half guessing/half figuring this year. That's actually making it more fun for me, but the downside is enormous for anyone relying on it.

There. That should at least give anyone tempted reason to refrain from gambling on this hand. I'll probably do pretty well. I should. I've been studying the game for decades, but don't rely on me this year if you have the itch. I'm not really trying to win so much as make the game interesting for me.

Great post.....playing with odds makes it fun for me as well....no gambling though....

 

[Town Heretic]

A hurricane shortened week and associated headaches kept me from getting the rest of my picks in beyond....stopped at the Jets.

Here's a quick list of the remaining. Maybe next week I'll finally have the time to sit on them again.

Sea (2.5) @ Oak: I took Sea after last week's showing (and Oaklands).

Arz @ Min (10.5): I like it 28-29, Min, but not to cover.

Car @ Was (1.5): I have it a fg either way and took the home team, as a rule.

Ram (6.5) @ Den: I have it right at the margin and took the Rams to cover.

Jac (2.5) @ Dal: another dead heat...meaning I should take the home team, but I'm just shakey on Dallas. I'm going for the cover by the Jags and that defense.

Bal (2.5) @ Ten: I'm taking the cover, though I have the half point trying to pull me to Tennessee.

KC @ NE (3.5): I like the way the Pats are clicking on offense and that KC defense is beaten up. I have the Pats by 3, but I'll take the half point and cross my fingers that this is the week the Chiefs loss their undefeated luster.

SF @ GB (9.5): the Pack needs this and SF is on the road. GB.

 

[tetelestai]

The Steelers are to the Bengals what the Patriots are to the Steelers.

No matter what, you just know the Steelers will beat the Bengals, the same way that no matter what, the Patriots will beat the Steelers.

Mike Tomlin is 19-5 against Marvin Lewis since 2007, and has won the last 7 games in a row. The Steelers are 30-9 against the Bengals since 2000 (including 2-0 in the playoffs)

The Steelers are 3-11 against Brady/Belichick since 2001 (including 0-3 in AFC Championship Games).

 

[Town Heretic]

The Steelers are to the Bengals what the Patriots are to the Steelers.

That seems apt. It was a lot of fun to watch.

No matter what, you just know the Steelers will beat the Bengals, the same way that no matter what, the Patriots will beat the Steelers.

Like the Giants and Pats in a SB.

Mike Tomlin is 19-5 against Marvin Lewis since 2007, and has won the last 7 games in a row. The Steelers are 30-9 against the Bengals since 2000 (including 2-0 in the playoffs)

Who does Lewis have a winning record against anyway?

The Steelers are 3-11 against Brady/Belichick since 2001 (including 0-3 in AFC Championship Games).

If this team had Bell they could beat the Pats this year. I don't believe they can without him.

At present I'm more amazed at how the Chiefs have roared back against the Pats. I thought Brady would have put up 50 against that defense, as beaten as it is...and now it's looking like he might have to if he wants to win it.

 

[beloved57]

Another close one, Ill take it though. Five out of Six have went down to the final play of the game.

 

[tetelestai]

Who does Lewis have a winning record against anyway?

The one team that every coach has a winning record against.

Lewis is 22-8 against the Cleveland Browns.

 

[tetelestai]

Mike Tomlin is 19-2-1 against the Cleveland Browns.

The Browns can make any coach look like Vince Lombardi

 

[tetelestai]

The Browns play their home games at FirstEngery Stadium. This stadium opened in 1999.

Most wins ever at the Cleveland Brown's FirstEngery Stadium by QB:

11 - Ben Roethlisberger
10 - Derek Anderson
8 - Tim Couch / Joe Flacco
6 - Branden Weeden / Brian Hoyer
4 - 23 other Brown's QB's not worth mentioning by name.

 

[Town Heretic]

Okay, going into tonight's game...

1. Phi (2.5) @ Gia: this would have been a laugher a couple of games ago. The smart money is moving 69/31 in favor of the line and a Philly cover. The Eagles have yet to win on the road. The Giants have yet to win at home...I have it low scoring and dead even, so I'm taking the dog and hoping for a Giants upset.

Another bad start. 0-1 :mmph:

2. TB @ Atl (3.5): there are only two questions going in. Will Atlanta give up this early in the season and will the Bucs have a new qb bounce and surprise. It's 73/27 for that Atlanta cover. Shouldn't be a close contest. I have the Falcons covering going away absent that switch bump. More likely a 25-31 Atlanta contest.

Okay, 24-39, with Atlanta showing me a little more than I thought they had in them. 1-1

3. Buf @ Hou (7.5): that's an ambitious line, with the response running 56/44 against it and for the underdog Bills. But if Houston plays up to potential it just shouldn't be a hard cover.

[FONT=&quot]Killed by that half point difference...almost makes me wish the Bills had won outright. 1-2 :mmph:

[/FONT]

4. Chi (2.5) @ Mia: that's a short line for a Bears team that is loaded with defensive talent and appeared to find its offensive rhythm before the off week. The money is running 73/27 with. Vegas is looking more at a 6 pt win. In a fg contest you'd have to like the visiting team because of the difference in defense. I like it 26-20 Bears.

In fairness the Bears should have covered and blew up twice to not manage it. First with a fumble going in before overtime that would have settled the issue and then with a missed fg. And it looked like it was going to be that kind of week. 1-3 :mmph:

5. Pit @ Cin (2.5): and the money runs 53/47 against. Meaning everyone is nervous about this game. I have it between a 2 to 6 pt likely win for the Bengals. But the way they won against the Falcons, a team that shares many of the same weaknesses as Cin, I'm inclined to stretch for the Steelers and see the low, half point difference as the outcome.

Thank you, Steelers. 2-3

6. SD (.5) @ Cle: it's 66/44 for the cover. I have it anywhere from dead even to a 6 pt Chargers victory. So I'm torn. On the one hand I don't have a scenario where the Browns win outright. On the other, I do have one with a tie in it...the greater likelihood is a cover/victory for the visiting team. The Chargers have only really lost against two of the best teams in football now, KC and the Rams. And they were in both contests...so as much as I like the Browns growth and even seeing the potential upset here, I'm staying with the easier and more likely play.

Thank you, Chargers. 3-3

7. Ind @ Jets (2.5): it's a wan 56/44 support for the cover. I like it a 7 to two score difference with the home team winning out.

And it nearly was that very thing. Good one, Jets. 4-3

8. Sea (2.5) @ Oak: Sea after last week's showing (and Oakland's).

Gruden, you got some 'splainin to do. 5-3

9. Arz @ Min (10.5): I like it 28-29, Min, but not to cover.

And they win without covering, by another half point. 6-3

Car @ Was (1.5): I have it a fg either way and take the home team, as a rule.

Washington looked good. They'll need to be this coming week. 7-3

Ram (6.5) @ Den: I have it right at the margin and take the Rams to cover.

I'm not sure if the Broncos were better or the Rams were worse, but either way it stinks for me. 7-4 :mmph:

Jac (2.5) @ Dal: another dead heat...meaning I should take the home team, but I'm just shakey on Dallas. I'm going for the cover by the Jags and that defense.

Crap. Which accurately described the Jags play on both sides of the ball. Nice going Dallas though. 7-5 :mmph:

Bal (2.5) @ Ten: I'm taking the cover, though I have the half point trying to pull me to Tennessee.

Go Baltimore. 8-5

KC @ NE (3.5): I like the way the Pats are clicking on offense and that KC defense is beaten up. I have the Pats by 3, but I'll take the half point and cross my fingers that this is the week the Chiefs lose their undefeated luster.

And NE won by 3, as I figured. Should have stayed with the system and had a shot at 10 wins, but that's life. 8-6 :mmph:

SF @ GB (9.5): the Pack needs this and SF is on the road. GB.

This one is making me nervous too. But I've got a winning week either way. So I'll gamble.