Freak game with a qb/rb and a gameplan they didn't see coming. It happens. This one felt like a tight game. The last time I checked you were up by 8, but I'm not looking again until it's over.
NFL 2018 Season Starts Tonight
- Thread starter Jerry Shugart
- Start date
dr for the win on last night. It was, sadly, the shifting too close to reasonably call fest I feared, as are a number of games this week. For instance,
I have Atlanta over visiting Cin, but by 5, not 5.5
GB over visiting Buf, but by 10 and not 10.5
Chi to cover outright over visiting TB, but who knows with Fitz at the helm.
Dal to take Det, but by 2 and not 2.5
Phi to take Ten by 1 to 3, but not 3.5
Ind over Houston outright, with the line at a meager .5 in the Colts' fav.
NE over visiting Mia, but by 5, not 6.5
Jac over the visiting Jets by 7, but not 7.5
Oak over visiting Cle by 1, not 2.5
Sea over Arz by 3, but not 3.5
NO by 6 over the Gia
SD by 10, but not 10.5
Bal and Pit dead even, which normally puts me in the home team column...
KC over Den by 3, not 5.5
So I have a lot of thinking to do before Sunday. Those are my provisional lines at present, God help me...
I have Atlanta over visiting Cin, but by 5, not 5.5
GB over visiting Buf, but by 10 and not 10.5
Chi to cover outright over visiting TB, but who knows with Fitz at the helm.
Dal to take Det, but by 2 and not 2.5
Phi to take Ten by 1 to 3, but not 3.5
Ind over Houston outright, with the line at a meager .5 in the Colts' fav.
NE over visiting Mia, but by 5, not 6.5
Jac over the visiting Jets by 7, but not 7.5
Oak over visiting Cle by 1, not 2.5
Sea over Arz by 3, but not 3.5
NO by 6 over the Gia
SD by 10, but not 10.5
Bal and Pit dead even, which normally puts me in the home team column...
KC over Den by 3, not 5.5
So I have a lot of thinking to do before Sunday. Those are my provisional lines at present, God help me...
Time to talk about the NFC conference..
NFC East: So far a two horse race, with both Philly and Was making their case and out of the gate at 2-1. The Giants have shown some signs of life, but is still struggling and Dallas looks poorly coached and without consistency at skill positions.
Sum: Philly...if they weren't coming off a championship run you'd have to say they look average on offense and solid, but not dominant on defense. The Eagles have given up the 8th fewest yards to opposing offenses, which is encouraging, but they're 15th, solid middle of the pack in surrendering those yards through the air. That's not so good. And they're in the top tier at stopping you inside the red zone. On offense, they're 19th in yds production, 20th passing and 11th rushing. Hopefully, they're now on the uptick with passing, since a hobbled Foles has handed the reigns back to the guy who looked like the MVP until his injury last year. With that defense and a resurgent passing game you shouldn't sleep on Philly as a solid contender to repeat a trip to the big game. Was is the only real threat to Philly. The Skins are 11th in total offensive yds, 15th in passing and 5th in rushing the ball. Though for all that movement they're a disappointing 18th in scoring. On defense they're 2nd in yds allowed (surprised?), 5th against the pass and 8th against the rush. No one has given up fewer pts per game either. Dal is 6th in pts allowed and 31st in pts scored. The Gia are 12th allowed and 27th in scoring.
NFC West: Rams, Rams, Rams. Might as well go into a summary here, since Sea is too up and down, the Niners just lost their head, and the Cardinals stink on ice. If the Rams weren't in this division you could argue against the winner of it being allowed into the playoffs.
Sum: The Rams field the second best scoring offense (marginally behind the pinball machine of KC) 4th in passing yds per game, 7th in rushing per game. On defense they're 9th in yds allowed, 7th against the rush and 15th against the pass. Meaning they might have a vulnerability against a team with an elite passing offense, like KC, provided that team's defense can slow them down a little, unlike KC.
NFC North: A really interesting division with both defensive power and offensive production to be found in nearly every team. Arguably the toughest division in the NFL this year to win out. Whoever takes it won't have the cake walk coronation that, say, NE has had in its division for quite a few. Meaning the winner could be bruised by the effort.
Sum: GB has Rodgers so they're in the hunt any year he's upright, but having the 23rd best defense in pts allowed puts a lot of pressure on him. The Bears have more talent on defense than arguably any other team in the league. They're tied at 8th presently, with Philly, in terms of pts surrendered, and that should only improve with as they work Mack into the mix and pressure opposing qbs into mistakes. They're 9th against the pass and 2nd against the rush. Scary. On offense...things to work on. 19th in scoring and toward the bottom passing. So they're still waiting on qb production. The Vikings have a much improved offense from a team that was nearly in it to win it late last year, though that steller defense is in disarray, so the question to settle with them is how much of that can they get back and how quickly? It's going to be tough sledding in a division with this talent. Det has demonstrated that on a given day they can play spoiler. Hard to see them even as a wild card, but easy to see them having a say in who lands where.
NFC South: Or maybe THIS is the toughest division in the NFC...I mean, show me a weak team here, or a team without at least one flaw that makes you nervous.
Sum: TB has talent. Not a statement you can make many years. If Fitz can be the hot hand he has been early they're in contention, BUT they have a porous defense and it's weakest against the pass, meaning they only way they win is by keeping a hot Fitz on the field. Not exactly a recipe for long term success. I think of them more like Detroit. Despite early flashes, they're more king maker than prince in line. NO is much like TB, except with Brees under center, meaning that they retain a puncher's chance consistently, and when Ingram returns give you balance problems on defending them, but they're almost as bad in their secondary play as Tampa and worse at pts allowed per game. Absent some change, that's worrisome.
Car has everything it needs to win the division. They're 12th in pts allowed, though middle of the pack in yds allowed both passing and rushing, so they need to improve, especially in that passing conference. On offense the Panthers are 13th in pts scored. They're 1st in rushing, in part due to Newton's prowess, but 25th in passing yds (come on, Cam). He's going to have to pass more and run less or it's disaster in the making. Atl is on the mend. The Falcons are 9th in scoring offense, 11th passing per game and 21st rushing. The run game could get better to keep pressure off of Matty Ice, but in that division it's only really problematic with Carolina. In the larger playoff picture, it has to improve. On defense, Atl is a disappointing 25th in pts allowed, 25th against the pass and 28th against the run, which does mean a team like NO, with Ingram back, is set up to upset their division plans to challenge Carolina.
NFC East: So far a two horse race, with both Philly and Was making their case and out of the gate at 2-1. The Giants have shown some signs of life, but is still struggling and Dallas looks poorly coached and without consistency at skill positions.
Sum: Philly...if they weren't coming off a championship run you'd have to say they look average on offense and solid, but not dominant on defense. The Eagles have given up the 8th fewest yards to opposing offenses, which is encouraging, but they're 15th, solid middle of the pack in surrendering those yards through the air. That's not so good. And they're in the top tier at stopping you inside the red zone. On offense, they're 19th in yds production, 20th passing and 11th rushing. Hopefully, they're now on the uptick with passing, since a hobbled Foles has handed the reigns back to the guy who looked like the MVP until his injury last year. With that defense and a resurgent passing game you shouldn't sleep on Philly as a solid contender to repeat a trip to the big game. Was is the only real threat to Philly. The Skins are 11th in total offensive yds, 15th in passing and 5th in rushing the ball. Though for all that movement they're a disappointing 18th in scoring. On defense they're 2nd in yds allowed (surprised?), 5th against the pass and 8th against the rush. No one has given up fewer pts per game either. Dal is 6th in pts allowed and 31st in pts scored. The Gia are 12th allowed and 27th in scoring.
NFC West: Rams, Rams, Rams. Might as well go into a summary here, since Sea is too up and down, the Niners just lost their head, and the Cardinals stink on ice. If the Rams weren't in this division you could argue against the winner of it being allowed into the playoffs.
Sum: The Rams field the second best scoring offense (marginally behind the pinball machine of KC) 4th in passing yds per game, 7th in rushing per game. On defense they're 9th in yds allowed, 7th against the rush and 15th against the pass. Meaning they might have a vulnerability against a team with an elite passing offense, like KC, provided that team's defense can slow them down a little, unlike KC.
NFC North: A really interesting division with both defensive power and offensive production to be found in nearly every team. Arguably the toughest division in the NFL this year to win out. Whoever takes it won't have the cake walk coronation that, say, NE has had in its division for quite a few. Meaning the winner could be bruised by the effort.
Sum: GB has Rodgers so they're in the hunt any year he's upright, but having the 23rd best defense in pts allowed puts a lot of pressure on him. The Bears have more talent on defense than arguably any other team in the league. They're tied at 8th presently, with Philly, in terms of pts surrendered, and that should only improve with as they work Mack into the mix and pressure opposing qbs into mistakes. They're 9th against the pass and 2nd against the rush. Scary. On offense...things to work on. 19th in scoring and toward the bottom passing. So they're still waiting on qb production. The Vikings have a much improved offense from a team that was nearly in it to win it late last year, though that steller defense is in disarray, so the question to settle with them is how much of that can they get back and how quickly? It's going to be tough sledding in a division with this talent. Det has demonstrated that on a given day they can play spoiler. Hard to see them even as a wild card, but easy to see them having a say in who lands where.
NFC South: Or maybe THIS is the toughest division in the NFC...I mean, show me a weak team here, or a team without at least one flaw that makes you nervous.
Sum: TB has talent. Not a statement you can make many years. If Fitz can be the hot hand he has been early they're in contention, BUT they have a porous defense and it's weakest against the pass, meaning they only way they win is by keeping a hot Fitz on the field. Not exactly a recipe for long term success. I think of them more like Detroit. Despite early flashes, they're more king maker than prince in line. NO is much like TB, except with Brees under center, meaning that they retain a puncher's chance consistently, and when Ingram returns give you balance problems on defending them, but they're almost as bad in their secondary play as Tampa and worse at pts allowed per game. Absent some change, that's worrisome.
Car has everything it needs to win the division. They're 12th in pts allowed, though middle of the pack in yds allowed both passing and rushing, so they need to improve, especially in that passing conference. On offense the Panthers are 13th in pts scored. They're 1st in rushing, in part due to Newton's prowess, but 25th in passing yds (come on, Cam). He's going to have to pass more and run less or it's disaster in the making. Atl is on the mend. The Falcons are 9th in scoring offense, 11th passing per game and 21st rushing. The run game could get better to keep pressure off of Matty Ice, but in that division it's only really problematic with Carolina. In the larger playoff picture, it has to improve. On defense, Atl is a disappointing 25th in pts allowed, 25th against the pass and 28th against the run, which does mean a team like NO, with Ingram back, is set up to upset their division plans to challenge Carolina.
Jerry Shugart
Well-known member
THANX!
It's hard for me to see anyone challenging the Rams in the NFC this season. But the year is young and if the Boys can get their running game going then they will have a really good team capable of beating anyone. Hopefully their All Pro Center will return in time to save the season.
It's hard for me to see anyone challenging the Rams in the NFC this season. But the year is young and if the Boys can get their running game going then they will have a really good team capable of beating anyone. Hopefully their All Pro Center will return in time to save the season.
My final picks for Week 4
Going in 0-1 in a tough toss up loss against the line with a game I had Rams by 6...which is why this week is worrying me, as per my last. Ah, well, spaghetti to the wall and let's see what sticks.
Cin @ Atl (5.5): that's just a lot of pts for a game with two good teams that air it out. I have it more likely a 3-4 pt contest, with the Falcons prevailing, but not at that spread and I could see the Bengals winning it outright, depending on the team that shows up. So I'm taking the Bengals for the upset.
Buf @ GB (10.5): it all depends on Rodgers, but that's a lot of pts. I can see it happening, like a 28-14 Packer win. And I can see the Bills slowing the game with running a-la Carolina and keeping this one closer, like 17-24...man...I'll take the Pack to cover at home, but I hate that line.
TB @ Chi (2.5): It's a makeable line if the offense shows up for the Bears and their D keeps Fritz from looking magical. I'll take Chicago at home, something like 27-20. If the scoring is plus 47 it's going to be a sad day for Bear's fans.
Det @ Dal (2.5): No.
Phi (3.5) @ Ten: I understand it. Philly hasn't looked better than average on offense and the Titans looked better than expected last week. Making the betters take a stand above a fg is a smart line move. And if Philly was playing as they have I'd like them by less. But this is week 2 of Carson's return and I'm gambling he'll look better, move the offense more smartly than we've seen so far and outmatch the game Titans. I'll take Philly.
Hou @ Ind (.5): No one wants any part of this game. I'm going to be a contrarian and say Houston. Neither of these teams is anything to write home about of late, but Watson could ignite. Luck appears to be a work in progress, arm wise.
Mia @ NE (6.5): This really is an important game for the Pats. The Fins have fielded yet another solid team to contend with and Brady needs a win to keep the division from being up for grabs early. I'm standing where I should have last week, with Miami. The Pats should win, but by closer to 5. If it's low scoring the Fins win outright. Potential upset of my view here is if NE can work in the new kid in time to beat up on the secondary as Miami doubles Gronk. That's the possible fly in the ointment.
Jets @ Jac (7.5): I hate the qb situation at the Jags, which is the only reason I'm not all over the action here. If they get good play it's an easy cover, even though the Jets are improved. If they don't, it's a fg game...the half point is here is killing me...I'll take the Jags.
Cle @ Oak (2.5): What, no love for the improving Browns? Actually yes. The money is all over this one. I though Oakland might make a better statement last week and they bit me. I like what's happening in Cleveland, but I have a feeling Gruden finds his first win in front of the temporary home team this week. Give me Oakland.
Sea (3.5) @ Arz: Hate both teams. Wouldn't give either of them a fg plus, so I'll take the 0-3 Cardinals on a whim.
NO (3.5) @ Gia: I called the Giant's upset of Houston last week. This week they're at home against a team that will allow Eli to pass...but I think the Saints have too much offense for NY to handle. I have it more a 28-22 game if it's relatively low. A 38-34 if it's not. Saints.
SF @ SD (10.5): and again, I know, but they're still SD to me...hard to know what to do with this one. A huge line to make, and the backup for the Niners isn't awful...but I'm going to go with the cover on the principle that SF has lost heart with its head detached. And Rivers needs a signature win even this early. The confluence of those two should net a big win for the Chargers...that or they screw me and it's a 28-21 game where everyone is happy. I'm taking Rivers.
Bal @ Pit (3.5): I get it, but it feels more like wishful thinking than a reasonable expectation. Or maybe the book is hoping the half point drives action. This is a coin flip to me. I'm taking Baltimore over the half point.
KC (5.5) @ Den: It's a hard road for up tempo offenses in Denver. I like them to win it, but I don't know that I'm comfortable with the margin. I have it more a 28-25 contest, or a 27-17, which would burn me. I'll take what seems to me the more likely outcome and say Den to keep it closer than the two fg maring implied.
Going in 0-1 in a tough toss up loss against the line with a game I had Rams by 6...which is why this week is worrying me, as per my last. Ah, well, spaghetti to the wall and let's see what sticks.
Cin @ Atl (5.5): that's just a lot of pts for a game with two good teams that air it out. I have it more likely a 3-4 pt contest, with the Falcons prevailing, but not at that spread and I could see the Bengals winning it outright, depending on the team that shows up. So I'm taking the Bengals for the upset.
Buf @ GB (10.5): it all depends on Rodgers, but that's a lot of pts. I can see it happening, like a 28-14 Packer win. And I can see the Bills slowing the game with running a-la Carolina and keeping this one closer, like 17-24...man...I'll take the Pack to cover at home, but I hate that line.
TB @ Chi (2.5): It's a makeable line if the offense shows up for the Bears and their D keeps Fritz from looking magical. I'll take Chicago at home, something like 27-20. If the scoring is plus 47 it's going to be a sad day for Bear's fans.
Det @ Dal (2.5): No.
Phi (3.5) @ Ten: I understand it. Philly hasn't looked better than average on offense and the Titans looked better than expected last week. Making the betters take a stand above a fg is a smart line move. And if Philly was playing as they have I'd like them by less. But this is week 2 of Carson's return and I'm gambling he'll look better, move the offense more smartly than we've seen so far and outmatch the game Titans. I'll take Philly.
Hou @ Ind (.5): No one wants any part of this game. I'm going to be a contrarian and say Houston. Neither of these teams is anything to write home about of late, but Watson could ignite. Luck appears to be a work in progress, arm wise.
Mia @ NE (6.5): This really is an important game for the Pats. The Fins have fielded yet another solid team to contend with and Brady needs a win to keep the division from being up for grabs early. I'm standing where I should have last week, with Miami. The Pats should win, but by closer to 5. If it's low scoring the Fins win outright. Potential upset of my view here is if NE can work in the new kid in time to beat up on the secondary as Miami doubles Gronk. That's the possible fly in the ointment.
Jets @ Jac (7.5): I hate the qb situation at the Jags, which is the only reason I'm not all over the action here. If they get good play it's an easy cover, even though the Jets are improved. If they don't, it's a fg game...the half point is here is killing me...I'll take the Jags.
Cle @ Oak (2.5): What, no love for the improving Browns? Actually yes. The money is all over this one. I though Oakland might make a better statement last week and they bit me. I like what's happening in Cleveland, but I have a feeling Gruden finds his first win in front of the temporary home team this week. Give me Oakland.
Sea (3.5) @ Arz: Hate both teams. Wouldn't give either of them a fg plus, so I'll take the 0-3 Cardinals on a whim.
NO (3.5) @ Gia: I called the Giant's upset of Houston last week. This week they're at home against a team that will allow Eli to pass...but I think the Saints have too much offense for NY to handle. I have it more a 28-22 game if it's relatively low. A 38-34 if it's not. Saints.
SF @ SD (10.5): and again, I know, but they're still SD to me...hard to know what to do with this one. A huge line to make, and the backup for the Niners isn't awful...but I'm going to go with the cover on the principle that SF has lost heart with its head detached. And Rivers needs a signature win even this early. The confluence of those two should net a big win for the Chargers...that or they screw me and it's a 28-21 game where everyone is happy. I'm taking Rivers.
Bal @ Pit (3.5): I get it, but it feels more like wishful thinking than a reasonable expectation. Or maybe the book is hoping the half point drives action. This is a coin flip to me. I'm taking Baltimore over the half point.
KC (5.5) @ Den: It's a hard road for up tempo offenses in Denver. I like them to win it, but I don't know that I'm comfortable with the margin. I have it more a 28-25 contest, or a 27-17, which would burn me. I'll take what seems to me the more likely outcome and say Den to keep it closer than the two fg maring implied.
Jerry Shugart
Well-known member
Since the Lions have the worse running defense in the league as of today I will take the Boys and give the points.
I hate the game. I have Dallas 23, Det. 21 as we speak. Just the worst week for me to have to choose. Too many half point games.
Jerry Shugart
Well-known member
Yea, those darn half point games!
I'm 9-4, even with a couple of head scratchers.
I'm not really surprised by NE coming to life. I just thought it wouldn't be this week.
Had the Rams winning by a half point less. That's life.
The Philly game upset was surprising, but not the closeness late. Another half point and I went against my score, though I also did that with GB, so it was a win/loss wash.
And I had no real idea what was going to happen with SF. A backup can come in and surprise you for a game or two and he is, as I noted, a decent backup. But it could have as easily been a SD beat down. Rivers got the win he needed, but it doesn't inspire confidence.
I've taken Bal tonight and Denver to keep it closer tomorrow, but I won't be worse off than 9-6, and should win at least one of those to get back to double digits with 10-5, or 11-4. Not a bad week in any event. Especially given the number of tight contests and lines.
Jerry Shugart
Well-known member
Once again you broke the bank!
And with one game left in Week 4, here's how I stand:
Going in 0-1 in a tough toss up loss against the line with a game I had Rams by 6...which is why this week is worrying me, as per my last. Ah, well, spaghetti to the wall and let's see what sticks.
1-1
2-1
3-1
4-1
4-2 :mmph:
5-2
5-3 :mmph:
6-3
7-3
8-3
9-3
9-4 :mmph:
10-4
And I'm back in double digit win territory after an weird one in week 3. That leaves tomorrow's contest to push me to 11, I hope.
Going in 0-1 in a tough toss up loss against the line with a game I had Rams by 6...which is why this week is worrying me, as per my last. Ah, well, spaghetti to the wall and let's see what sticks.
And the Bengals won it outright.
1-1
Only surprised at just how ineffectual the Bills were on offense.
2-1
I was wrong about a high over being bad for the Bears, but then I didn't see the offensive coming out party they were set to have. The D did indeed rob Fitz of his magic and I'll take the win.
3-1
Yes! And I had the 2 pt margin on the nose to boot. I talked about it in another post here.
4-1
Okay, I had this one until late. The offense of Philly wasn't the problem. It was about what I was expecting, but who saw that performance in Mariota? Not me. Congrats to the line makers. It was a smart move indeed.
4-2 :mmph:
I was actually pleasantly surprised by both offenses. But not by the outcome...surprised, I mean.
5-2
NE looked good, but it was more the road collapse of Miami on defense that triggered an ample covering. Looks like I picked the wrong week to flip back to the Fins.
5-3 :mmph:
Thankfully it was the former.
6-3
And find it he did, but not without a real battle from a Browns team that was arguably cheated.
7-3
I was right about the margin on this one. Thanks Cardinals. You're 0-4, but a winner for me by keeping it close.
8-3
The Giants weren't in the mix as much as I thought they would be, but the Saints came through as expected. Not sure what's going on with Eli.
9-3
Yeah. I don't feel bad at all. Who knew what SF team we'd get without its leader? You never know (or bet on these).
9-4 :mmph:
Looked like the game I had in mind going into half time. Then the Baltimore D reasserted itself and that was that.
10-4
And I'm back in double digit win territory after an weird one in week 3. That leaves tomorrow's contest to push me to 11, I hope.
beloved57
Well-known member
My Falcons dropped another one. The defense couldn't get a stop when it counted. Don't understand why Coach Quinn elected for the two point conversion either, just get the extra point, it was still early in the game, that may have cost us the game. Its a up hill climb from here, Go Falcons !
Never say die...or at least not in week 4. Especially when you're 1-1 within your division.
You got a win against Carolina and a loss against the Saints. Okay. NO beat you but lost to Tampa. Carolina has yet to win a division game.
Or, no one has more wins inside your division than you. And no team has more talent inside your division. You need to get a lot better defensively. You're 25th pass yds allowed per game, 26th in rushing allowed per game and 29th in pts allowed. That's killing what a fine offense will get you. That has to change. But the season is still young and no one has pulled away from you in your division yet. And the team that beat you is just marginally better than you are defensively.
Okay, the week is in the books and so far I'm doing fairly well against the line.
Week 1: 12 - 4
Week 2: 13 - 3arty:
Week 3: 8 - 8 :rip:
Week 4: 11 - 4 :the_wave:
Total: 44 - 19 :reals:
Coming soon: Power Rankings
Week 1: 12 - 4
Week 2: 13 - 3
arty:Week 3: 8 - 8 :rip:
Week 4: 11 - 4 :the_wave:
Total: 44 - 19 :reals:
Coming soon: Power Rankings
NFL Power Rankings Week 5: Top 10 Teams
Wins haven't completely controlled this group in foundation, but I did weight heavily on outcome.
1. Rams - no surprise for anyone here. Less than a point and a half behind the circus tent of KC's offensive output, the Rams offense churns out the 2nd most passing yds per game and the 7th most rushing yds for serious balance that keeps defenses guessing. On defense they come in at the 5th spot for least pts allowed. They are 5th against the rush, though middling against the pass, 15th in yds per game, which is the only thing approaching weakness for them.
Sum: It is this offensive and defensive balance that makes them the odds on favorite to beat anyone else on a neutral field, at least this far into the season.
2. Ravens - this might surprise you, but the Ravens are fielding a quietly special team at present. They're 5th in scoring offense per game. 8th in yds per game passing, a less inspiring 23rd rushing per game. Meaning they have to get you through the air and teams with elite secondary play could put the brakes on the whole unit. Defensively they're tied for 3rd in pts allowed, and are 4th against the pass and rush, meaning you'd better bring your best game and hope you can shut down their passing attack, have a good fg kicker, and can put up tds early. They haven't allowed a td in the second half of any game this year.
Sum: Defensive stopper and a passing attack that is one of the league's best (way to feel the heat Flacco), but that rushing game needs to improve to rest that defensive unit over the long haul or I'd look for them to lose steam as the year wears on.
3. Chiefs - an offense that outscores the Rams, if only incrementally. They're 9th through the air in yds per game, and 14th rushing. Doesn't sound overwhelming but the yds don't tell the entire story and they have a terrific rb, along with a qb who knows how to make the most out of buying time. On defense, they're 25th in pts allowed. Only TB gives up more yds in the secondary and only a little better than that in run stopping (28th).
Sum: what am I trying to tell you? What long suffering Chiefs fans know by now. Reed can scheme his way into bafflingly good starts, but this team is streaky good and waiting to crash. You can't be that poor on executing defense and rely on big plays offensively to cover a multitude of sins for a season. So they start getting better or they implode at some point. It's a team that scares everyone but I wouldn't count on remaining here for long as constituted.
4. Saints - 3rd best offense at scoring pts in the league, a scant 2 behind KC. NO can pass (7th in yds per game) and run (18th in yds per game) though the rushing attack suffered without Ingram, and is bound to uptick. On defense they're miserable in the secondary (30th in yds per game) but stout against the rush (3rd). . . or is it just that no one gets around to running against them because the passing game works so well? :think:
Sum: like KC, they need to improve a few things. The running game will come and unlike KC they stop at least half the attack of opposing offenses and manage it at league leading margins, meaning correcting the secondary is at a premium (or establishing a better pass rush). At present they could linger and beat a lot of teams with Brees under center, but that glaring deficiency will kill them come playoffs or, if they're very lucky, force them into a pinball contest. And that they can win against almost anyone.
5. Patriots - thought I wasn't going to give them any due? Or maybe you think this is a little high? I'm almost with you, but with Brady and that coach, any substantive signs of life get my attention. After a bleak start, NE is middle of the pack in scoring offense (15th) and climbing. Getting some wr help will continue to ignite this number. It started a game earlier than I anticipated. They're currently 22nd in passing yds per game and 12th in rushing per game. Meaning they did what they could waiting on what's his face to get back, while picking up the drug bizarre for insurance and help, if he can stay legal. On defense they're 12th in pts allowed, which given that early offense isn't bad.
Sum: here's where it's interesting enough I wanted to save it for the sum, defensively the Pats are 8th against the pass and a meh 26th against the run. Why is that exciting? Because that means even without the rest they needed that secondary is good and bound to get better. Being so-so against the run isn't as crippling in today's scheming and can be helped by rest, which the defense will get more of and meaning teams will run less on them to wind out a clock and make for a slower game. OR, look for the Pats to grow toward the playoffs. They're still that good.
6. Jags - I don't like them because of their inconsistent qb play, but you can't fault their numbers or wins for the most part, so far. 22nd best pt scoring offense...man. But better than that in parts, essentially middle of the pack in both, with injuries contributing. Defensively they're scary, allowing the fewest pts per game of any team. They're hard to run against (10th in yds allowed per game) and ridiculous to pass against (1st) allowing not a lot over a buck fifty per game. That's a team crying for any sort of offense, which is why even a mediocre one puts them in the mix. If they had a franchise qb the Rams would be worried.
Sum: they don't have a franchise qb.
7. Bears - Chicago is so recognized for defense that I'm doing this backwards. They're 3rd in pts allowed as it sits and with the growing contributions of their latest superstar should actually improve. That translates so far to 10th against the pass and 2nd against the run. So as with an earlier noted team, you'd better get in from distance. You aren't running it in or eating much clock. Unfortunately for opponents, that secondary isn't too far off being as strong. Offensively? A turn around has them 8th in pts per game, 23rd passing and 10th rushing in yds per game with signs that passing could improve much like New England's. Okay, maybe not, but improve a great deal.
Sum: If the sudden passing surge is sustainable or growable this team is good enough to beat anyone.
8. Bengals - the Bengals field the 4th best scoring offense, 12th passing, 22nd rushing. Again, the disparity between output and yds tells me they have to make big plays consistently and will likely regress absent some corrections. On defense they're 23rd in pts allowed, 28th in yds allowed per game passing, and 21st in rsh yds allowed.
Sum: they're not as good as their record, are relying on big plays and vulnerable in the secondary. They have loads of work to do to remain competitive. But so far so good in terms of wins.
9. Philly - we all know this is a terrific team. We all know Wentz is going to get better and better and that if he doesn't a healthy Foles just needs modest help to make you forget about that. So how are they doing so far? A little too sure and satisfied late. Now they look ready to start clawing at it again and remembering how no one really completely believed in them last year until they had to...okay, pep talk over. On offense they're a wake up already 26th in pts scored. That will improve a lot over the coming weeks. And they're 17th and 11th now in yds per passing and rushing, respectively. On defense, they're 9th in pts allowed, 19th in the secondary and 1st against the rush.
Sum: an offensive uptick will help that secondary and the Eagles are still very much in contention, though they'll need a lot more scoring power to contend against the best in their conference and beyond.
10. Green Bay - it's all about Mr. Rodgers. They're 19th in pt scoring, a thing we all know will trend up absent further injury to himself. At present they're winning with their B game, being low middle of the pack in moving the ball. On defense, there's help. They're 10th best in keeping opponents out of their endzone. Middling against the rush, they're an encouraging 7th against the pass. Rodgers creaking has them a little lower this week.
Sum: with a healthy Rodgers and a very good defense, especially where it counts, against the pass, this team is a dark horse for any given Sunday.
Wins haven't completely controlled this group in foundation, but I did weight heavily on outcome.
1. Rams - no surprise for anyone here. Less than a point and a half behind the circus tent of KC's offensive output, the Rams offense churns out the 2nd most passing yds per game and the 7th most rushing yds for serious balance that keeps defenses guessing. On defense they come in at the 5th spot for least pts allowed. They are 5th against the rush, though middling against the pass, 15th in yds per game, which is the only thing approaching weakness for them.
Sum: It is this offensive and defensive balance that makes them the odds on favorite to beat anyone else on a neutral field, at least this far into the season.
2. Ravens - this might surprise you, but the Ravens are fielding a quietly special team at present. They're 5th in scoring offense per game. 8th in yds per game passing, a less inspiring 23rd rushing per game. Meaning they have to get you through the air and teams with elite secondary play could put the brakes on the whole unit. Defensively they're tied for 3rd in pts allowed, and are 4th against the pass and rush, meaning you'd better bring your best game and hope you can shut down their passing attack, have a good fg kicker, and can put up tds early. They haven't allowed a td in the second half of any game this year.
Sum: Defensive stopper and a passing attack that is one of the league's best (way to feel the heat Flacco), but that rushing game needs to improve to rest that defensive unit over the long haul or I'd look for them to lose steam as the year wears on.
3. Chiefs - an offense that outscores the Rams, if only incrementally. They're 9th through the air in yds per game, and 14th rushing. Doesn't sound overwhelming but the yds don't tell the entire story and they have a terrific rb, along with a qb who knows how to make the most out of buying time. On defense, they're 25th in pts allowed. Only TB gives up more yds in the secondary and only a little better than that in run stopping (28th).
Sum: what am I trying to tell you? What long suffering Chiefs fans know by now. Reed can scheme his way into bafflingly good starts, but this team is streaky good and waiting to crash. You can't be that poor on executing defense and rely on big plays offensively to cover a multitude of sins for a season. So they start getting better or they implode at some point. It's a team that scares everyone but I wouldn't count on remaining here for long as constituted.
4. Saints - 3rd best offense at scoring pts in the league, a scant 2 behind KC. NO can pass (7th in yds per game) and run (18th in yds per game) though the rushing attack suffered without Ingram, and is bound to uptick. On defense they're miserable in the secondary (30th in yds per game) but stout against the rush (3rd). . . or is it just that no one gets around to running against them because the passing game works so well? :think:
Sum: like KC, they need to improve a few things. The running game will come and unlike KC they stop at least half the attack of opposing offenses and manage it at league leading margins, meaning correcting the secondary is at a premium (or establishing a better pass rush). At present they could linger and beat a lot of teams with Brees under center, but that glaring deficiency will kill them come playoffs or, if they're very lucky, force them into a pinball contest. And that they can win against almost anyone.
5. Patriots - thought I wasn't going to give them any due? Or maybe you think this is a little high? I'm almost with you, but with Brady and that coach, any substantive signs of life get my attention. After a bleak start, NE is middle of the pack in scoring offense (15th) and climbing. Getting some wr help will continue to ignite this number. It started a game earlier than I anticipated. They're currently 22nd in passing yds per game and 12th in rushing per game. Meaning they did what they could waiting on what's his face to get back, while picking up the drug bizarre for insurance and help, if he can stay legal. On defense they're 12th in pts allowed, which given that early offense isn't bad.
Sum: here's where it's interesting enough I wanted to save it for the sum, defensively the Pats are 8th against the pass and a meh 26th against the run. Why is that exciting? Because that means even without the rest they needed that secondary is good and bound to get better. Being so-so against the run isn't as crippling in today's scheming and can be helped by rest, which the defense will get more of and meaning teams will run less on them to wind out a clock and make for a slower game. OR, look for the Pats to grow toward the playoffs. They're still that good.
6. Jags - I don't like them because of their inconsistent qb play, but you can't fault their numbers or wins for the most part, so far. 22nd best pt scoring offense...man. But better than that in parts, essentially middle of the pack in both, with injuries contributing. Defensively they're scary, allowing the fewest pts per game of any team. They're hard to run against (10th in yds allowed per game) and ridiculous to pass against (1st) allowing not a lot over a buck fifty per game. That's a team crying for any sort of offense, which is why even a mediocre one puts them in the mix. If they had a franchise qb the Rams would be worried.
Sum: they don't have a franchise qb.
7. Bears - Chicago is so recognized for defense that I'm doing this backwards. They're 3rd in pts allowed as it sits and with the growing contributions of their latest superstar should actually improve. That translates so far to 10th against the pass and 2nd against the run. So as with an earlier noted team, you'd better get in from distance. You aren't running it in or eating much clock. Unfortunately for opponents, that secondary isn't too far off being as strong. Offensively? A turn around has them 8th in pts per game, 23rd passing and 10th rushing in yds per game with signs that passing could improve much like New England's. Okay, maybe not, but improve a great deal.
Sum: If the sudden passing surge is sustainable or growable this team is good enough to beat anyone.
8. Bengals - the Bengals field the 4th best scoring offense, 12th passing, 22nd rushing. Again, the disparity between output and yds tells me they have to make big plays consistently and will likely regress absent some corrections. On defense they're 23rd in pts allowed, 28th in yds allowed per game passing, and 21st in rsh yds allowed.
Sum: they're not as good as their record, are relying on big plays and vulnerable in the secondary. They have loads of work to do to remain competitive. But so far so good in terms of wins.
9. Philly - we all know this is a terrific team. We all know Wentz is going to get better and better and that if he doesn't a healthy Foles just needs modest help to make you forget about that. So how are they doing so far? A little too sure and satisfied late. Now they look ready to start clawing at it again and remembering how no one really completely believed in them last year until they had to...okay, pep talk over. On offense they're a wake up already 26th in pts scored. That will improve a lot over the coming weeks. And they're 17th and 11th now in yds per passing and rushing, respectively. On defense, they're 9th in pts allowed, 19th in the secondary and 1st against the rush.
Sum: an offensive uptick will help that secondary and the Eagles are still very much in contention, though they'll need a lot more scoring power to contend against the best in their conference and beyond.
10. Green Bay - it's all about Mr. Rodgers. They're 19th in pt scoring, a thing we all know will trend up absent further injury to himself. At present they're winning with their B game, being low middle of the pack in moving the ball. On defense, there's help. They're 10th best in keeping opponents out of their endzone. Middling against the rush, they're an encouraging 7th against the pass. Rodgers creaking has them a little lower this week.
Sum: with a healthy Rodgers and a very good defense, especially where it counts, against the pass, this team is a dark horse for any given Sunday.
drbrumley
Well-known member
Indianapolis Colts 1-3
New England Patriots 2-2 (-10.5)
Taking the Patriots
Atlanta Falcons 1-3
Pittsburgh Steelers 1-2-1 (-3.5)
Taking the Steelers
Tennessee Titans 3-1
Buffalo Bills 1-3 (+3.5)
Taking the Titans.
Miami Dolphins 3-1
Cincinnati Bengals 3-1 (-6.5)
Taking the Bengals.
Baltimore Ravens 3-1
Cleveland Browns 1-2-1 (+2.5)
Taking the Ravens.
Denver Broncos 2-2
New York Jets 1-3 (-0.5)
Taking the Broncos.
Green Bay Packers 2-1-1
Detroit Lions 1-3 (+1.5)
Taking the Packers.
Jacksonville Jaguars 3-1
Kansas City Chiefs 4-0 (-3.5)
Taking the Jaguars.
New York Giants 1-3
Carolina Panthers 2-1 (-6.5)
Taking the New York Giants.
Oakland Raiders 1-3
Los Angeles Chargers 2-2 (-5.5)
Taking the Raiders.
Los Angeles Rams 4-0
Seattle Seahawks 2-2 (+7.5)
Taking the Rams.
Minnesota Vikings 1-2-1
Philadelphia Eagles 2-2 (-3.5)
Taking the Eagles.
Arizona Cardinals 0-4
San Francisco 49ers 1-3 (-4.5)
Taking the Cardinals
Dallas Cowboys 2-2
Houston Texans 1-3 (-3.5)
Taking the Cowboys.
Washington Redskins 2-1
New Orleans Saints 3-1 (-6.5)
Taking the Redskins.
New England Patriots 2-2 (-10.5)
Taking the Patriots
Atlanta Falcons 1-3
Pittsburgh Steelers 1-2-1 (-3.5)
Taking the Steelers
Tennessee Titans 3-1
Buffalo Bills 1-3 (+3.5)
Taking the Titans.
Miami Dolphins 3-1
Cincinnati Bengals 3-1 (-6.5)
Taking the Bengals.
Baltimore Ravens 3-1
Cleveland Browns 1-2-1 (+2.5)
Taking the Ravens.
Denver Broncos 2-2
New York Jets 1-3 (-0.5)
Taking the Broncos.
Green Bay Packers 2-1-1
Detroit Lions 1-3 (+1.5)
Taking the Packers.
Jacksonville Jaguars 3-1
Kansas City Chiefs 4-0 (-3.5)
Taking the Jaguars.
New York Giants 1-3
Carolina Panthers 2-1 (-6.5)
Taking the New York Giants.
Oakland Raiders 1-3
Los Angeles Chargers 2-2 (-5.5)
Taking the Raiders.
Los Angeles Rams 4-0
Seattle Seahawks 2-2 (+7.5)
Taking the Rams.
Minnesota Vikings 1-2-1
Philadelphia Eagles 2-2 (-3.5)
Taking the Eagles.
Arizona Cardinals 0-4
San Francisco 49ers 1-3 (-4.5)
Taking the Cardinals
Dallas Cowboys 2-2
Houston Texans 1-3 (-3.5)
Taking the Cowboys.
Washington Redskins 2-1
New Orleans Saints 3-1 (-6.5)
Taking the Redskins.
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Hat this game with what I saw last week from the Pats and at home. The smart reach is to lay the points. Indy isn't a great team and New England appeared to find its offensive rhythm last week. The money is nervous about the size of the line, with 55% taking the points.
The unknown? Is Gronk healthy enough? Will Julian return with anything like the form they need? Probably. And that makes the offense instantly more dangerous.
I can see them running away with it, like 17 - 34. I can also see it closer, like an 19 - 28 win. I don't see Indy winning in any projection.
That spread is possible, but I have it on the outside of the likely outcomes and I'm going to take the points. Indy to keep it inside of that line.
Idolater
"Matthew 16:18-19" Dispensationalist (Catholic) χρ
Agreed. This team has the most to prove this season. They looked unstoppable at the same point last year, it's like they come out of the gates in mid-season form, but then the rest of the league catches up and they're relegated to has-beens and also-rans.
He's off to a spectacular start.
Too soon to tell. Brady's got a reputation for sometimes roaring back to life after listless starts, but he's still 41, and he's now thrown 4 picks already, a pace that hearkens back to pre-2014, which is the biggest worry I've got with him and with this team. As I've said before, throwing picks is like having 12 defenders and only 10 offensive players on the field during the play. Compared to fumbles, which are loose balls up for grabs, a free-for-all; picks literally hand the ball over.
Teams survive them, but they make games much tougher to win, especially against good offenses. NE defense is improving, but are they championship caliber even on their best day? Maybe. Maybe not historically, but it only matters if they play historically potent offenses. And with Edelman returning and Gordon clean, added to Gronk, White out of the backfield, and Hogan and Patterson/ playing the other targets, Brady is suddenly looking like he's got plenty of weapons to utilize. And the O-line looks to be decent at protection.
He's got to dial it down on the picks though.
Pretty much. Like with Brady, Brees, Flacco, this team's destiny depends very much upon their man under center. And like those others, he's got the ability to drive their team to a championship.
Idolater
"Matthew 16:18-19" Dispensationalist (Catholic) χρ
'First time I've seen Andrew Luck since he hurt himself. He looks really good. I mean his play. But also he looks really good, trim, healthy looking; better than the last time I saw him. I've always rooted for him because he just plays the game so hard and obviously really enjoys doing it, plus the talent. It looks like he's just got to somehow rein in his accuracy on longer passes.
Edelman had a wide open drop. Very uncharacteristic. But aside from that, he looks quick and strong. Hopefully that drop was just jitters, and he'll be back to being an NFL receiver very soon.
Edelman had a wide open drop. Very uncharacteristic. But aside from that, he looks quick and strong. Hopefully that drop was just jitters, and he'll be back to being an NFL receiver very soon.