NFL 2018 Season Starts Tonight

[Town Heretic]

So I answered dr correctly until I got to the Jets part. Fortunately:

View attachment 26645

Which beats the pants off last week's opening loss. View attachment 26646

So I'm 2-0 against dr and 1-0 going into the weekend. I really should have chosen the Jets with that line, but I'll take whatever had me go the other way. I may need that this week.

I'm taking the Saints to win a close game at Atlanta, though the Falcons are favored by 3.5

As BAD as the Bills have looked, I'm not going to take 16.5 pts for Minnesota. Can't do it. A 30-15 game wouldn't make that line.

The Bengals are a 2.5 dog at Carolina, but I still think the Panthers are dinged and I'm going to reach a little for a Cincinnati win here.

Den goes into Bal a 4.5 dog to the Ravens. I'm going to look for a rebound win and cover by a Baltimore team that played sloppy D last week.

Green Bay is a 2.5 road fav in Washington. I'm going the other way. The Redskins are a decent team and they should pressure a less mobile Rodgers. I like them for the upset.

Jacksonville is a 7.5 fav over a visiting Titans. I have no faith in Tennessee teams. Go Jags.

Indy @ Philly finds the home team a 6.5 fav and I think that's fair. If the Eagles were playing anything like they did last year it would be a two TD line.

SF @ KC has another 6.5 home fav line, but the way Mahomes is playing can you blame Vegas? I can't. Should be fun to watch.

Mia is a 3.5 fav at home against the visiting Raiders. You know I like the Fins as a solid test for other teams. They're a competent, average team. Not easy to beat. If you're visiting you need to be ready. They upset a hot Jets team last week...Oakland lost late against Den at altitude. Tough call. I'll violate my fg home rule and say this is the week the Silver and Black get over the hump and take a tough one.

The 0-2 Giants visit the more surprisingly 0-2 Texans as a 5.5 dog...I can see it, but both teams have been so bad it's hard to see this one not being a squeaker on the low end of things. Neither offense has shown anything. The math has them covering. I'm going the other way and saying this one is a kicker's game and give the Giants some love.

My favorite game of the week is SD (I know, but that's who they are to me) @ Rams. The home team, a fav to make the SB is a TD fav. The Chargers are a really good team. But the Rams...at home...hard to argue a single digit line over nearly any team in the league. Another game I could lose as easily as win. I'll take the home team with a look on my face you usually see in a photo of someone caught on a date with someone they aren't going steady with in HS.

Chi is a 4.5 fav going into Arz. Until the Cardinals look like something more than a scrimmage team I'm okay with any single digit line.

Dal @ Sea finds the Seahawks a 2.5 fav. I hate this game too. Can Dallas travel to one of the toughest stadiums and bring home a win? If they can it's just what they need to continue the regroup. Sea still has unity issues and a horrible offensive line. I'm going to say Dallas in the upset.

NE @ Det. The Pats are a 6.5 fav and the Lions are struggling. I have it between a 30-26 win that kicks betting fans in the teeth, to a 37-17 debacle that pulls the soul out of the Lions. The latter is more likely. I'll take the Pats.

Pittsburgh is somehow a 1.5 favorite going to TB. I don't love either team. The Steelers are short essential talent and showing more cracks on offense. TB is riding Fitz, bound to crash any day...but I'll take the hopeful magic over the fractured potential and say Bucs.

 

[Jerry Shugart]

I'm at 6-3 now on my picks so things are looking up.

At Seattle -1.5
Dallas

The Boy's pass rush will decimate the Seahawk's terrible offensive line so I pick Dallas and take the points.

At Houston -6
NY Giants

The Texans have let me down two weeks in a row but that will end against the hapless Giants so I will take Houston and give the 6 points.

New England -7
At Detroit

Detroit barely has a pulse so I will take New England and give the 7 points.

Pittsburgh -1.5
At Tampa Bay

Pittsburgh barely has a pulse so I will take Tampa Bay and take the points.

Too bad Tet isn't around these days! Or is he?

 

[beloved57]

We have a injury bug. Freeman out again, a starting offensive lineman out, tack may not play and of course Deion out with neal out, but i still like the Falcons at home in a close game in one of the fiercest rivals in the nfl.

 

[Jerry Shugart]

As BAD as the Bills have looked, I'm not going to take 16.5 pts for Minnesota. Can't do it. A 30-15 game wouldn't make that line.

I think that you got that right, TH, so I'm picking the Bills also because I just can't resist that many points.

 

[Town Heretic]

Well, two great weeks followed by a head scratcher. It started well enough with a Cleveland upset and a 1-0 heading into the weekend. I was worried I might be scratching to find a double digit win against some of the thin lines and odd matchups, but man..

Week Three Wrap Up

I'm taking the Saints to win a close game at Atlanta, though the Falcons are favored by 3.5

Final: 43-37 NO though it was anyone's guess who would win this one. Heck of a game to watch and a heartbreaking OT for Falcons fans.

2-0

As BAD as the Bills have looked, I'm not going to take 16.5 pts for Minnesota. Can't do it. A 30-15 game wouldn't make that line.

That said, who saw this dismantling coming?
Final: 27-6 Buf :shocked:

3-0

The Bengals are a 2.5 dog at Carolina, but I still think the Panthers are dinged and I'm going to reach a little for a Cincinnati win here.

It took uncharacteristic play/turnovers from the Bengals for Carolina to manage it, but hats off to the Panthers for covering.
Final: 31-21 Car

3-1 :mmph:

Den goes into Bal a 4.5 dog to the Ravens. I'm going to look for a rebound win and cover by a Baltimore team that played sloppy D last week.

Bang. As expected.
Final: 27-14 Bal

4-1

Green Bay is a 2.5 road fav in Washington. I'm going the other way. The Redskins are a decent team and they should pressure a less mobile Rodgers. I like them for the upset.

The only surprise was the margin.
Final: 31-17 Was

5-1

And then the week's wheels started to come off...

Jacksonville is a 7.5 fav over a visiting Titans. I have no faith in Tennessee teams. Go Jags.

No excuse for this one. But it is proof that you need a franchise qb in this incarnation of the game. Mariota only throws for 100 yds and wins?
Final: 9-6 Ten

5-2 :mmph:

Indy @ Philly finds the home team a 6.5 fav and I think that's fair. If the Eagles were playing anything like they did last year it would be a two TD line.

And the Eagles still haven't found an offensive rhythm. Off my prediction by a fg.
Final: 20-16 Phi

5-3 :mmph:

SF @ KC has another 6.5 home fav line, but the way Mahomes is playing can you blame Vegas? I can't. Should be fun to watch.

Too bad for SF fans though. There goes the season.
Final: 28-27 KC

6-3

Mia is a 3.5 fav at home against the visiting Raiders. You know I like the Fins as a solid test for other teams. They're a competent, average team. Not easy to beat. If you're visiting you need to be ready. They upset a hot Jets team last week...Oakland lost late against Den at altitude. Tough call. I'll violate my fg home rule and say this is the week the Silver and Black get over the hump and take a tough one.

This one is on me for not going with my rule of thumb. Cost me a win.
Final: 28-20 Mia

6-4 :mmph:

The 0-2 Giants visit the more surprisingly 0-2 Texans as a 5.5 dog...I can see it, but both teams have been so bad it's hard to see this one not being a squeaker on the low end of things. Neither offense has shown anything. The math has them covering. I'm going the other way and saying this one is a kicker's game and give the Giants some love.

Final: 27-22

7-4

My favorite game of the week is SD (I know, but that's who they are to me) @ Rams. The home team, a fav to make the SB is a TD fav. The Chargers are a really good team. But the Rams...at home...hard to argue a single digit line over nearly any team in the league. Another game I could lose as easily as win. I'll take the home team with a look on my face you usually see in a photo of someone caught on a date with someone they aren't going steady with in HS.

Way to go Rams.
Final: 35-23 Rams

8-4

Chi is a 4.5 fav going into Arz. Until the Cardinals look like something more than a scrimmage team I'm okay with any single digit line.

Final 16-14 Chi

8-5 :mmph:

Dal @ Sea finds the Seahawks a 2.5 fav. I hate this game too. Can Dallas travel to one of the toughest stadiums and bring home a win? If they can it's just what they need to continue the regroup. Sea still has unity issues and a horrible offensive line. I'm going to say Dallas in the upset.

Pitiful. This coaching staff has to get shaken up, starting with the head coach.
Final: 24-13

8-6 :mmph:

NE @ Det. The Pats are a 6.5 fav and the Lions are struggling. I have it between a 30-26 win that kicks betting fans in the teeth, to a 37-17 debacle that pulls the soul out of the Lions. The latter is more likely. I'll take the Pats.

Wow. I think this was my shock of the week. Jacksonville and Min were surprises, but this was something else.

Final: 10-26

Let that one sink in. Tom Brady and company score 10 pts in a game. A whole game.

8-7 :smack:


I'll stick with my upset tonight for the shot at a feel good 9-7 or a break even if I miss it.

Pittsburgh is somehow a 1.5 favorite going to TB. I don't love either team. The Steelers are short essential talent and showing more cracks on offense. TB is riding Fitz, bound to crash any day...but I'll take the hopeful magic over the fractured potential and say Bucs.

 

[Jerry Shugart]

Pitiful. This coaching staff has to get shaken up, starting with the head coach.
Final: 24-13

The Boys looked pitiful and out-coached so you are right, Jason Garrett needs to go. But Jones will let him stay until there is no chance of making the play-offs.

 

[tetelestai]

Wonder where the Steeler's biggest fan is, Tet?

You there?

Hi Jerry,

Not the start you and I wanted.

Your Cowboys are 1-2, and my Steelers are 1-1-1

I guess the good news is that it's early in the season. However, I'm not very optimistic for my Steelers without LeVeon Bell, and it appears Kansas City, Jacksonville, Denver, Miami, and a few other teams have some really good young talent in the AFC.

What's up with your Cowboys?

 

[tetelestai]

BTW,

The last time the Steelers started the season 1-1-1 was in 1974......they went on to win Super Bowl IX that year.

Just say'n.......

 

[beloved57]

Tough loss and another key injury. Just need to stay focus and hope some key players can return from injury The Tampa lost helped

 

[Town Heretic]

Tough week...8-8...man. Cost myself 3 games going against the math and picked up 1 that way.

For instance, my predicted score for the Steelers game was

Steelers 29 - TB 27

But I decided to get on the Fitz train for one last week...

Ah, well, then I'm still 33-15 overall and how hard can next week be?

:noid:

Onward and upward.

 

[Jerry Shugart]

BTW,

The last time the Steelers started the season 1-1-1 was in 1974......they went on to win Super Bowl IX that year.

Just say'n.......

Welcome back!

 

[Town Heretic]

Too early for power ratings, but it isn't too early to look at divisions and get a rough idea of how teams are playing.

Imagine that 20 is a number that represents a decent team. Solid, average. 18-20 is the range with 20 being the best of that limited range.

Then, around 25 you start running into teams playing like playoff teams should. Just another gear.

At 30 you're in the rarified air of the legitimate SB contenders/winners (no one is at this level prior to week 8 with rare, rare exception and few stay there if they arrive that early.

Right now, only about 10 teams are playing above avg. ball.

With that in mind, let's peek at the divisions. And understand this is a rough approximation. Starting with the AFC

AFC East: an average division so far. Nothing embarrassing and nothing remarkable about it. The good news for Pats fans is that even without a wr corps New England is playing as good or better than their division competition. And over the next few weeks they're going to improve on that front. So it isn't likely that anyone will catch them inside the East, which has been a large part of their recipe for playoff positioning and success over the years, winning a weak division at the one spot where you just can't be anymore and win games that matter, under center.

Sum: NE is playing avg ball right now, but will get better with Edelman back after week 4, freeing Gronk from double teams and working in Gordon in the meantime for some relief. Could get playoff better fast if they can right the defensive ship. The Jets are decent, but will have ups and downs with a rookie qb and shouldn't contend any time soon. Buffalo had a great win with a rb at qb (serious accuracy issues) that can't repeat the success as they played him. Miami is playing a weak average despite their record and the NE test will tell us how seriously they can look to at least mix things up within the division early.

AFC West: calm down, KC fans. Yes, they're that good now and yes, there's reason to be excited. The only real challenge you have in your division at this point is the Chargers, who only have a shot on their field. Problem with both teams right now is that they're giving up too many points on defense. I have SD (I know, I know) at high average and KC at better than/not at playoff caliber level, which is fine early. Den and Oak are sub average, but only by a jot...think 17ish on that scale. Could contend with average teams on their own turf. Not good for much more absent some serious growth.

Sum: KC is in the same position as NE in their division. Clearly better than all but one challenger who could coin flip them at home in the Chargers. Play approaching playoff level, held back by defense. Other than that there's no real challenge for them outside of a mirror. SD will have to improve to challenge. Den is only mildly dangerous at home and Oakland can't get out of its own way at present, with both of the last two mentioned playing sub to weak average.

AFC North: The strongest division in the AFC, led by a surprising Bal at present. If the Steelers had all their pieces in place...but they're not likely to see that happen this year as things are going.The biggest head scratch short of Oakland's ridiculous trade of Mack. Sign the piece you need to open up your offense and you're golden. Don't (and they won't) and you're wasting the last drops of possibility in the cup. It's getting nearer to rebuild time than anyone is thinking. Cin is in the near KC air, but they look fragile and there's no history to build on, so...

Sum: It's Baltimore's to lose. They're already playing right at playoff level strength and if they get consistent play under center and pressure up the middle they're a dark horse to watch. I know, it's early. Pit needs Bell to make me Bellieve, and they seem determined to squander whatever is left in Big Ben's tank. It's a shame the Giant's front office can't run the Steelers for a minute. Cin has the talent but lacks the heart and is playing strong avg at present. Cle is heading in the right direction for once, but is still only decent avg. Say a 19 on that scale.

AFC South: I know, I saw the game, but it's a weak division with one strong team that, unfortunately, didn't fix the thing that wastes so much, the qb position. It's still a one horse race here. Jac should beat anyone in their division in their opponents backyard. But their qb position is a difference maker, for the other guys. To lose in their own yard against a Titan team with a similar question mark was about as clear a case for doing something as could be seen. Hello, Arizona, I hear you have a Bradford up for sale. Tennessee couldn't field a line that could get Henry more than 3 yds a carry, couldn't get more than 100 yds out of their qb and they won the game anyway. Embarrassing.

Sum: Jac has to fix the offense to contend within their own division, let alone outside of it, but they're clearly the most talented team in the AFC South overall. Ten has staked a claim as the potential upset if they can build on it. Indy is much better with Luck back, but is he enough and is he going to be more Luck like as time progresses, or did the injury turn him into a dink and dunk machine better suited to a SF offensive scheme and will that be enough if it's the reality given the system they built isn't that one...oh, and this just in: Hou is still the place where talent goes to die in the South. Watson improved, but still needs to work himself back to where he was last year. That guy could shake things up. This guy will just make you look respectable in a loss.

 

[Jerry Shugart]

The last time the Steelers started the season 1-1-1 was in 1974......they went on to win Super Bowl IX that year.

Yep, them and the refs!

Just say'n......

I really enjoyed watching Patrick Mahomes throw six touchdowns against your Steelers, especially since he previously played for the Texas Tech Red Raiders!

 

[tetelestai]

Sum: It's Baltimore's to lose. They're already playing right at playoff level strength and if they get consistent play under center and pressure up the middle they're a dark horse to watch. I know, it's early. Pit needs Bell to make me Bellieve, and they seem determined to squander whatever is left in Big Ben's tank. It's a shame the Giant's front office can't run the Steelers for a minute. Cin has the talent but lacks the heart and is playing strong avg at present. Cle is heading in the right direction for once, but is still only decent avg. Say a 19 on that scale.

Even if Bell was on the team, it wouldn't matter. The Steelers defense is horrible.

Roethlisberger is averaging 380 passing yards per game after 3 games. That average may go up, because the defense is giving up an average of 30 points per game. Roethlisberger is going to have to throw on every down to try and catch up, as the defense keeps letting the other team score.

30 points per game allowed by the defense......shake my head........The 1976 Steelers defense gave up 28 points combined for THE LAST 9 GAMES OF THE SEASON....the 2018 Steelers defense sucks!

 

[Jerry Shugart]

Tough week...8-8...man. Cost myself 3 games going against the math and picked up 1 that way.

For instance, my predicted score for the Steelers game was

Steelers 29 - TB 27

But I decided to get on the Fitz train for one last week...

Ah, well, then I'm still 33-15 overall and how hard can next week be?

I'm back down to 7-7 and am eagerly awaiting your prognosis of the teams in the National Conference.

 

[Town Heretic]

Even if Bell was on the team, it wouldn't matter. The Steelers defense is horrible.

It's bad.

Roethlisberger is averaging 380 passing yards per game after 3 games. That average may go up, because the defense is giving up an average of 30 points per game. Roethlisberger is going to have to throw on every down to try and catch up, as the defense keeps letting the other team score.

Part of why I like the Ravens. Better defense and the Steelers aren't really designed to be a pinball offense, especially with the most versatile piece off the board.

 

[tetelestai]

It's bad.

Believe it or not, the Chiefs have given up even more points (92 vs 90). However, the Chiefs are averaging 39.3 points per game on offense.

Most points by a team in a season:

1) 606 Denver Broncos 2013 (37.9 per game)
2) 589 New England Patriots 2007 (36.8 per game)
3) 560 Green Bay Packers 2011 (35 per game)

So, we'll see if Jake Delhomme and the Chiefs can keep up their 39 points per game average.

 

[Town Heretic]

Shoot. The Rams are a 6.5 favorite tonight. I'm going the other way. It's 61/39 money with the line so I'm starting off with a gamble and going the other way.

 

[drbrumley]

Shoot. The Rams are a 6.5 favorite tonight. I'm going the other way. It's 61/39 money with the line so I'm starting off with a gamble and going the other way.

Im taking the Rams....It's hard for me to pick Minnesota against a great team after getting handled easily by Buffalo....Buffalo!!!!

 

[Town Heretic]

Im taking the Rams....It's hard for me to pick Minnesota against a great team after getting handled easily by Buffalo....Buffalo!!!!

Freak game with a qb/rb and a gameplan they didn't see coming. It happens. This one felt like a tight game. The last time I checked you were up by 8, but I'm not looking again until it's over.