Kondrashov understands simple math. If the mutation rate is higher than birth rate, it will lead to eventual extinction. He used the number of 100 new slightly deleterious mutations (and at least a few are deleterious], so my wife and I would need to have at least a couple hundred kids. That is simple math, genetics and logic since selection would have to remove mutations as fast as they occur.
6days, perhaps I should thank you for your repeated and consistent demonstrations that you haven’t the foggiest idea of what Kondrashov’s paper shows. Indeed Kondrashov understands simple math. I suspect you do too. The problem is that Kondrashov also understands (and uses) more advanced math that must look like gobbledygook to those (like you) whose math understanding stalled in junior high.
Again you rely on the simplistic idea that constantly adding VSDMs every generation means they will lead to extinction. You just can’t fathom that there might be mechanisms operative in the genome that counter that buildup. You are still not one sentence deeper into Kondrashov’s paper than the title, and it is pretty obvious by now that you cannot / will not / dare not actually engage it at a technical level to see if he provides a solution to your junior-high school conundrum.
In 1950 Muller discussed the problem saying that if the deleterious mutation rate was close to only 1 deleterious mutation per person, per generation that the long term result would be deteriation of our genome. (journal Genetics, 'Our Load of Mutations'). That is because our birth rate is only slightly more than one person per generation.
Yup, you have claimed I am remiss in relying on a 20-year old technical paper, but now you rely on a paper that is more than 65 years old, predating Kondrashov’s by 45 years. Is hypocrisy really that addictive to you?
Since your childishly simplistic mathematical approach to the genetic load problem relies on ignoring the more complex aspects of the genetics that Kondrashov focuses on, I said:
His paper simply shows, in formal mathematical detail, that there are mechanisms which can overcome genetic load. Bellyaching about a mathematically-based solution is kinda childish. If the math is wrong, show where.
To dodge, you replied:
I can answer, but first... Are you agreeing with his numbers, and this particular model? IOW.... Is the standard multiplicative population genetic model wrong?
Creationists hate reading. I have already (multiple times) been exquisitely clear that the very reason for Kondrashov’s paper is because a simplistic junior-high-level approach to this genetic problem is wrong.
Now, not that I have any confidence you will actually live up to your word, please show that you “can answer”, by showing where Kondrashov’s model fails. His title is predicated on the elementary mathematics you favor, and suggests there are more advanced considerations that you seem unwilling to allow. Now put on your big-boy pants and get into the paper itself.
All of Kondrashovs work is based on the belief in common ancestry. Genetic load / mutation rates (the data) easily fits within the couple hundred generations since creation. He is trying to rationalize the data within his beliefs of tens of thousands of generations.
And in your ignorance of science, you refuse to admit that the mathematics does not depend on what motivated the author. If Kondrashov had been a hard-core religious fanatic creationist, which of his equations would have been changed?
He has said things such as "Because deleterious mutations are much more common than beneficial ones, evolution under this relaxed selection will inevitably lead to a decline in the mean fitness of the population.”
Yeah, Kondrashov did say that. How do I know? Well maybe I read it in his 2012 paper titled “The Rate of Human Mutation”, in the left-hand column, last paragraph, on page 468 of “Nature” magazine. Is that where you got his quote from? Or did you perhaps find it in an article at the ICR by Brian Thomas?
Naah, you and I both know that your source of almost all the quotes from scientists that you have posted come not from you reading their papers, but from your mindless reliance on what you find in creationist literature. Every time (in this thread and some others I checked on) when you quoted something that seemingly supported your position from a mainstream scientist, I found that exact quote in creationist literature and/or forums. Heaven forbid that should you actually have the integrity to go to the primary sources themselves.
In my last post I requested that you show you actually have Kondrashov’s paper. To show that, all I asked is that you copy from his paper a single author’s name and the name of a journal. That request required no math, no understanding of genetics, just a 3rd-grade ability to copy a few words. And you chose to ignore it. So now after a half-dozen modestly long exchanges, do you have anything more to offer than bland generalities about Kondrashov’s paper.
Kondrashov … is proposing a model that is artificial and biologically unrealistic.
Inasmuch as you do not have, and have not read, Kondrashov’s paper, how do you know it is artificial and unrealistic?
I don't think you understand. Only 3 deleterious mutations per generation is a problem to common ancestry. 100 mutations per genome per generation is a problem. One geneticist has called it the population bomb.
Repeating simplistic junior-high arguments doesn’t make them more credible.
As to your article helping you out... it doesn't. They say there is 100 new base-substitution mutions added to our genome with each passing generation. (Thats a huge problem). But add on 100+satellite mutations, a couple deletions and a couple insertions (that would be hundreds if not thousands of nucleotide changes), add on a few thousand inversion and conversion mutations. Oh... and don't forget there may have been 1 mitochondrial mutation (possibly 1 every 2 or 3 generations. The total is MUCH higher than 100....
Alas, I was remiss in snipping out a portion of the quote in the article I referenced. In the missing portion – indicated by the ellipses – the author includes things like “large structural changes (involving mobile insertions and interchromosomal exchanges)”. These are all reflected in his final figure when he says “an average newborn contains ~100 de novo mutations.” My bad for not including more of the relevant text. Your bad for making a judgement without even having bothered to refer to the article itself (as usual) before making your poorly informed judgement.
You have alluded to more recent papers since Kondrashov’s 1995 article that you apparently think give Kondrashov problems. So when I ask for what specific papers, you offer nothing more specific than:
Google ENCODE.
Only problem is, I did. Several times, much earlier in this exchange. Nothing that I saw that even comes close to what you need, and a fair amount there that is against your creationist idiocy. But in reality I use Google Scholar more than a generic Google search on questions like this. I don’t recommend Google Scholar for people like you that are still at the junior-high level, though. Google Scholar papers actually use mathematics more complicated than what you have shown you can handle.
Ahhhhh.....those ancient nomadic sheep herders wrote some pretty brilliant stuff. Interesting how a few thousand years later science keeps proving Gods Word correct... and evolutionists wrong.
I have responded to this claim before, only to be greeted by a deafening silence on your part. But if you insist – please provide the scientific evidence for:
---A couple of species of animals engaging in human conversations.
---Wooden staffs transforming back and forth into reptiles.
---Rivers transforming into hemoglobin.
---Wives transforming into pillars of salt.
---A fellow doing just fine inside a fish for a few days.
---Smelly decaying dead bodies getting up and socializing with the neighbors.
---Making a woman out of a man’s rib.
Etc. etc.
Thats dodging that you originally presented a very simple and unscientific model. You suggested some people have unusually low numbers of mutations that benicial mutations could trump.
Creationists hate to read. I did mention people with an unusually low number of mutations, but the bit about them being trumped by beneficial mutations is just you resorting to spin doctoring once again.
One in a million, measured in standard deviations, is a bit under 5 SDs. In many aspects of science, when the spread of data points is the result of a random function, a data point that is 5 standard deviations away from the norm is likely to be considered pretty unusual. But when looking at the random spread of mutations in a population of 7 billion people, about 7 thousand of them will probably be 5 or more standard deviation units away from the norm. (Some will be even more extreme, but for passing on their genetic character, the outlying group needs to be big enough that interbreeding is likely.) Maybe you think being 1 in a million is just ho-hum stuff.
we all have more mutations than our parents and less than our children.
Do we? Most people would be expected to have more mutations than their parents, but I am not sure that is anywhere near a certainty. When the egg is fertilized the resulting DNA is basically half from each parent, but in some cases I would expect the 50% DNA from the dad could be from the parts of the Dad’s DNA that is a bit less “corrupted” than the other half was, and the same from the mom. If the child happens, by chance, to get just slightly less corrupted than usual DNA from both parents, then even the number of new mutations (100 or so) may not bring the total up to the mathematical average of the parents.
In your prior post when asserted that the estimates of how many mutations per generation may be much too low, you said:
I asked for a cite supporting that claim. You ignored that request. Do you stand by that claim you made, or not?Those estimates were based on what was considered functional DNA, which at that time was considered to be a small percentage of our DNA.
Finally, can we ever expect you to go to the original scientific sources yourself, or is it your intention to never rise above being a lackey who mindlessly passes on whatever you are fed from your creationist idols?