NFL 2017

[Nihilo]

Here are Montana's ratings, also broken into accuracy and production, for the seasons he won.

1981 88.4 (57.4 for accuracy, 30.9 for production)
1984 102.9 (58.8 for accuracy, 44.1 for production)
1988 87.9 (54.4 for accuracy, 33.9 for production)
1989 112.4 (64.4 for accuracy, 48.0 for production)

There's no pattern there. Except where higher accuracy tends to coincide with higher production also. 'Makes sense.

Same information, with SB stats:

1981 88.4 (100.0 in SB)
1984 102.9 (127.2 in SB)
1988 87.9 (115.2 in SB)
1989 112.4 (147.6 in SB)

Montana played way better in SBs than in even those seasons he won SBs. Look at '88: 87.9 in the regular season---pedestrian---and a commanding 115.2 in the SB. Wow. My hat's off.

Same information for Brady:

2001 86.4 (86.2 in SB)
2003 85.9 (100.5 in SB)
2004 92.6 (110.2 in SB)
2007 117.2 (82.5 in SB)
2011 105.6 (91.5 in SB)
2014 97.4 (101.1 in SB)
2016 112.2 (95.2 in SB)

In 2001, he was in the SB who he was in the regular season, and NE won.
In 2003 and in 2004, he stepped it up for the SB, and NE won.
In 2007 and in 2011, he let down his team, and NE lost.
In 2014, he stepped it up, and NE won.
In 2016, he let down his team, but NE won anyway.

 

[Jerry Shugart]

Gia @ Dal: Cowboys ar 4.5 favorite. Money is all over the Giants 62/38 for the upset...of at least the line. I'm not confident about Dallas going against this defense one dimensionally. The more I think about it the less I like it. I'm going to play a hunch, say Eli finds a groove and Dallas can't handle the truth of life temporarily absent half their offensive fire power. Giants.

One dimensional?

With three First Team All Pro Offensive linemen the Boys will not be one dimensional.

 

[drbrumley]

Kansas City @ New England

Kansas City @ New England

Ok, here we go...

Kansas City @ New England
Line: NE -9.0 O/U: 48.5

Per Pigskin Pickem

The defending Super Bowl champion Patriots enter the season as one of Week 1's biggest favorites and haven't lost at home to Kansas City since 1990, a span of six games that includes the playoffs. New England also was an NFL-best 13-3 against the spread during the 2016 regular season. The Patriots have Tom Brady ready to go in Week 1, unlike last year when their star quarterback served a four-game suspension.

I will go with New England to win, but not cover and the under

 

[Town Heretic]

One dimensional?

Yes. Without Eliot their running game won't take heat and concentration off a sophomore qb. It's not an insult, just noting they're not going in full strength. If they were I'd be taking the Boy

 

[Jerry Shugart]

Yes. Without Eliot their running game won't take heat and concentration off a sophomore qb. It's not an insult, just noting they're not going in full strength. If they were I'd be taking the Boy

They will not be one dimensional. They will not be as good at running the ball without Zeke but they will not shut down the running game. After all, they have what many consider to be the best Offensive Tackle in the league, as well as the best Center and the best Guard.

Even though Dak had the best season of any rookie Quarterback in NFL history last year he did it without an off season to work with the first team receivers. Now he has had the whole off season to work with them. The passing game will be much improved this year.

 

[Town Heretic]

They will not be one dimensional. They will not be as good at running the ball without Zeke but they will not shut down the running game. After all, they have what many consider to be the best Offensive Tackle in the league, as well as the best Center and the best Guard.

We'll see. I don't think you can take Zeke out of the mix without really impacting the effectiveness of the running game and the passing game, given how that changes what defenses can do. The only way to try to get some of that back is to risk your qb with more running, which I wouldn't do short of a playoff scenario. Certainly not on opening day.

Even though Dak had the best season of any rookie Quarterback in NFL history last year he did it without an off season to work with the first team receivers. Now he has had the whole off season to work with them. The passing game will be much improved this year.

He also did it without opposing defenses having much of a book on him. Now they do AND he's not going to get the help he was accustomed to...I'm just saying don't be hard on him or the team if it's not an effort to remember.

 

[Jerry Shugart]

The only way to try to get some of that back is to risk your qb with more running, which I wouldn't do short of a playoff scenario.

Last year Dez had lingering health issues and he did not have an off season to work with Dak. And shutting down Dez was the key to the Giant's wins over the Boys.

This year Dez is healthy and according to reports from training camp it was practically impossible to defend the two. When Dez is healthy he is one of the best receivers, and perhaps the very best in the category of scoring touchdowns. And last year the Boys got no production from him against the Giants.

This year it will be different.

 

[drbrumley]

2017 Preseason Rankings

2017 Preseason Rankings

I haven't seen any rankings for this year, but this is how I'm pegging them at first.

1. New England
2. Atlanta
3. Minnesota
4. Denver
5. Kansas City
6. New York Giants
7. Dallas
8. Cincinnati
9. Seattle
10. Miami
11. Pittsburgh
12. Green Bay
13. Washington
14. Oakland
15. Tennessee
16. New Orleans
17. Los Angeles Chargers
18. Buffalo
19. Arizona
20. Tampa Bay
21. Indianapolis
22. Baltimore
23. Philadelphia
24. Jacksonville
25. Houston
26. Chicago
27. Detroit
28. San Francisco
29. Carolina
30. Cleveland
31. Los Angeles Rams
32. New York Jets

 

[Jerry Shugart]

mikefisher@fishsports

ALERT courtroom source to me: Judge Mazzant just askd #NFL if #EzekielElliott is onfield for #Cowboys this wk, even if HH rules. Answer: YES

 

[Jerry Shugart]

Yes. Without Eliot their running game won't take heat and concentration off a sophomore qb. It's not an insult, just noting they're not going in full strength. If they were I'd be taking the Boy

So are you now going to pick the Boys -4?

 

[Jerry Shugart]

I haven't seen any rankings for this year, but this is how I'm pegging them at first.

1. New England
2. Atlanta
3. Minnesota
4. Denver
5. Kansas City
6. New York Giants
7. Dallas
8. Cincinnati
9. Seattle
10. Miami
11. Pittsburgh

You've got both Dallas and Pittsburgh too low. They will meet in the Super Bowl.

 

[patrick jane]

You've got both Dallas and Pittsburgh too low. They will meet in the Super Bowl.

This is the year of the Cowboys - America's team

 

[Town Heretic]

So are you now going to pick the Boys -4?

If you're sure Zeke is back I'm doing better than that. I just changed my Pigskin Pick'em to take them at 4.5...okay, it's a half point, but you know. :chuckle:

With Dallas at full strength I like them by as little as 3 and as much as 11, with 7 being my comfort zone. :thumb:

 

[Jerry Shugart]

I just changed my Pigskin Pick'em to take them at 4.5..

I didn't know that we get mulligans.

 

[Town Heretic]

I didn't know that we get mulligans.

I can change it right up until kick off, I think.

 

[Town Heretic]

I changed my pick to KC against the line/NE straight up late because I had it 21 - 14 Pats once the numbers broke down. And since that was the only game and nearly everyone picked New England I'm sitting in a tie for 1st place.

View attachment 25925

Also, Miami's game has been shuffled to week 11. So that's off the boards this week.

Additional short sheet:

I'm taking
Atlanta to cover 7.5
Buf to cover 6.5
Cin to cover 2.5
Steelers to cover 9.5...for now.
Arz to upset the 2.5 fav Lions
Ten in a mild .5 upset of Oak
Philly to upset Was and the 2.5 line
Texas to cover 4.5 (shudders)
Sea to upset 2.5 fav GB in GB
Car to cover 5.5
Dal to cover 4.5
NO to upset 3.5 fav Min
Den to cover the 3.5

Edit: left Indy v Rams out of the pick list. Luck is hurt and out, Rams.

Brady looked...meh in his opener. No picks, 267 yds, no tds. Looks like the end zone honors went to Gillislee, who managed 3 tds on 15 carries while only averaging 3 yds per carry. I'm guessing that means Tom got them close and the kid punched it in.

Speaking of wunderkinds, how about KC's Hunt? 148 and a td in Foxborough on the ground and 2 tds and nearly 100 yds worth of receptions. Wow. That's a heck of a way to start your NFL career.

And Smith? 368, 4 tds against 0 picks. Now that's a heck of a way to manage a game. :chuckle:

Kmo must be in a coma.

 

[Jerry Shugart]

I changed my pick to KC against the line/NE straight up late because I had it 21 - 14 Pats once the numbers broke down.

I thought that earlier you had already had the game broken down and you picked the Patriots to beat the spread:

KC @ NE: The Pats are favored by 8.5. Money is going 58/42 with NE. Tom won't have all the familiar pieces in play, but the real question is what KC will look like and how competitive will be in the AFC. Time to start getting excited, Chief's fans...about next year. Oh, the game? That's a big line. Brady will probably make it, but it could as easily be a 7 pt late bit. That said, the Chiefs have more to be excited about next year than this, as Alex has proven he's a very good placeholder for the heir apparent, which KC might have just gotten for Reid. New England until proven otherwise.

What did you see late to make you change your pick?

 

[patrick jane]

When does the season start?

 

[Town Heretic]

I thought that earlier you had already had the game broken down and you picked the Patriots to beat the spread:

I did, though I did almost all of that off the top of my head. No real number support. And you'll notice I thought, even then, it could be a td close, which would run against the 8.5 cover. I didn't see what happened coming though. That rookie...man. Is he the thing that helps Alex get to the next level most of us didn't think he had in him, or is this just one of those games? I really don't know.

What did you see late to make you change your pick?

Mostly just looking at really raw comparison bases that came back in New England's favor, but by less than the spread. And that was without the loss of a favored target. So, once I had some reason to confirm my worry on the number I went with it.

 

[Jerry Shugart]

Zeke will probably play in all of the Cowboy's games this year. Super Bowl here we come!