NFL 2017

Town Heretic

Out of Order
Hall of Fame
Zeke will probably play in all of the Cowboy's games this year. Super Bowl here we come!
Gotta get past a few, including last year's intact champion of the division.

Oh, and it looks like Luck is out for the opener, so I'm taking the Rams because if they can't win this one what can they win? Also, for some reason this was the game I forgot to pick. :idunno:
 

Town Heretic

Out of Order
Hall of Fame
So, I was looking at Lockeroomvip's list of worst SB QBs ever. Here it is: (keep in mind, #1 is the worst of the lot, not the best)

10. Bradshaw. Yes, he has the rings. But he also has a 51% completion average and two more tds that ints for his career.

9. Dilfer. He did manage to make a pro bowl and he helped manage the Ravens to a SB. The next year they upgraded at the position and...

8. Stabler. They have this one wrong. He could kill you when he felt like it, but he had the Randy Moss habit of not caring for stretches.

7.Rypien. He was really good the year he won his ring.

6. Johnson. Solid qb who had a peak at the best possible time of his life and rode it into a ring.

5. Theisman. For a couple of years he was impressive, going to back to back SBs, winning one and losing the other.

4. McMahon. Never understood the pro bowl selection. 90% attitude and 10% production.

3. Plunkett. Heisman winner in college/SB winner in the NFL. But beyond the one year his production was disappointing, considering.

2. Williams. Had to play in the Canadian league to break back in. Great against Elway in that SB, but another one season wonder.

1. Namath. Nick is already smiling about this one. Take away the ring and he's just another talented college football player who didn't translate.
 

Jerry Shugart

Well-known member
So, I was looking at Lockeroomvip's list of worst SB QBs ever. Here it is: (keep in mind, #1 is the worst of the lot, not the best)

10. Bradshaw. Yes, he has the rings. But he also has a 51% completion average and two more tds that ints for his career.

Those who actually saw Bradshaw play in the 70's did not base their opinion of him as a Quarterback on stats but instead on results. And that is why he was named to the All Decade Team of the 70's.

Only those who are so enamored with stats would ever say that Bradshaw was the 10th worse Quarterback who ever played in a Super Bowl. After all, he was the winning Quarterback in four Super Bowls and he lost none of them.

And it is those same folks who base their opinions of Quarterbacks on stats who over-rate Joe Montana. It must be remembered that in three of his Super Bowls one of his receiver was Jerry Rice, considered by many to be the best NFL player of all time. Besides that, his stats would not be so great if he had to play against the Steelers defense of the 70's.

On defense the Steelers had Hall of Famers Jack Lambert, Jack Ham, Mel Blount and Mean Joe Greene. L.C. Greenwood (All-Decade Team) and Ernie Holmes and Dwight White joined Greene to make up the Steel Curtain.

If Montana had to play that team in two Super Bowls and Staubach played two of the 49ers lesser opponents in the two Super Bowls he had to play against the Steelers then it would be Staubach who would be considered the best NFL Quarterback of all time.

Not Montana!

1. Namath. Nick is already smiling about this one. Take away the ring and he's just another talented college football player who didn't translate.

If not for the injuries his knees suffered he might have been the greatest NFL Quarterback of all time. Before those injuries he certainly had the talent.
 

Jerry Shugart

Well-known member
I like Oakland and the points today:

Tennessee -2.5
Oakland

Also, I take Dallas and give the points in the game tonight:

Dallas -4
New York Giants
 

Town Heretic

Out of Order
Hall of Fame
Those who actually saw Bradshaw play in the 70's did not base their opinion of him as a Quarterback on stats but instead on results. And that is why he was named to the All Decade Team of the 70's.
He could throw home runs when the pressure was high and elevated a streaky, mostly poor regular season game to a respectable level in the playoffs. But I think the list is about more than SB performance. So, as I understand it, they're saying, "Of all the winning SB qbs, which were on the whole the worst." Otherwise, Terry couldn't be on the list, even at the back end of it.

Only those who are so enamored with stats would ever say that Bradshaw was the 10th worse Quarterback who ever played in a Super Bowl. After all, he was the winning Quarterback in four Super Bowls and he lost none of them.
I look for how he played his role in the SB, not the W/L column. That's a team accomplishment. I've seen qbs stink and their team win, and some look great in a loss.

Maybe this will help...List of winning SB qbs by career rating, with playoff averages.

Worst career avg SB winners (#1 being the worst):
1. Namath 65.5
2. Plunkett 67.5
3. Williams 69.4
4. Dilfer 70.2
5. Bradshaw 70.9
6. Stabler 75.3
7. Griese 77.1
8. Theismann 78.4
9. Unitas/McMahon 78.2

Best career avg SB winners
1. Rodgers 104.1
2. Wilson 99.6
3. Brady 97.1
4. Young 96.8
5. Peyton 96.5
6. Brees 96.3
7. Rothl. 94.1
8. Warner 93.7
9. Montana 92.3
10. Eli 87.4

Worst playoff career avg SB winning qbs
1. Williams 53.6
2. Namath 54.8
3. Johnson 62.8
4. Dilfer 66.0
5. Griese 68.3
6. Unitas 68.9
7. Rypien 72.2
8. Staubach 76.0
9. McMahon 76.1
10. Simms 77.0

Best playoff career avg SB winning qbs
1. Starr 104.8
2. Warner 102.8
3. Brees 100.7
4. Rodgers 99.4
5. Montana 95.6
6. Rothl./Wilson 94.1
8. Theisman 91.4
9. Brady 89.0
10. Flacco 88.6

Best average of season/playoffs:
1. Rodgers 101.8
2. Starr 98.8
3. Brees 98.5
4. Warner 98.3
5. Wilson 96.9
6. Montana 94.0
7. Brady 93.1
8. Peyton 92.0
9. Young 91.3
10. Ben R. 89.2


And it is those same folks who base their opinions of Quarterbacks on stats who over-rate Joe Montana.
Rather, it's almost entirely people who can't understand that players demonstrate their acumen by statistical performance and teams win games. That's why Sanders is in the argument for best rb of all time without a single SB appearance.

Montana out performs every SB winning qb in the actual SB. Additionally, he's 9th in regular season performance and 5th in overall playoff career performance. And literally everyone above him except Young played under pass friendly rules that saw an explosion of yards an tds as it became harder to mug qbs and interfere with wrs. And Young doesn't compare with him in the playoffs.

It must be remembered that in three of his Super Bowls one of his receiver was Jerry Rice, considered by many to be the best NFL player of all time.
You have that wrong too. Joe won 2 of his 4 without Rice. Rice won one without Joe, even though he had another HOF qb throwing to him after Montana's trade. So who needed who? Seems you have that backwards.

Besides that, his stats would not be so great if he had to play against the Steelers defense of the 70's.
Who knows. Maybe. But his stats would look a lot better under the rules that allowed the handful of others mentioned above to pass him.

On defense the Steelers had Hall of Famers Jack Lambert, Jack Ham, Mel Blount and Mean Joe Greene. L.C. Greenwood (All-Decade Team) and Ernie Holmes and Dwight White joined Greene to make up the Steel Curtain.
I'm a huge fan of that team. But they didn't win every playoff game any more than Montana's Niners did. They won 4 SBs.

If Montana had to play that team in two Super Bowls and Staubach played two of the 49ers lesser opponents in the two Super Bowls he had to play against the Steelers then it would be Staubach who would be considered the best NFL Quarterback of all time.
Not much chance of that. I like him, but no. Supra. Staubach regular seaons rating: 83.4, playoff average: 76.0

Not Montana!
If we forget Montana's actual performances and wipe him off the list of consideration, it still wouldn't put Staubach in contention. Staubach doesn't even make the Mount Rushmore list, unless you're talking Dallas QBs.
 

Jerry Shugart

Well-known member
But I think the list is about more than SB performance. So, as I understand it, they're saying, "Of all the winning SB qbs, which were on the whole the worst." Otherwise, Terry couldn't be on the list, even at the back end of it.

Then you must actually think that Joe Kapp, Craig Morton and Vince Ferragamo were all better Quarterbacks than Bradshaw! Because those three started in Super Bowls and none of them are on the bottom ten list.

Staubach regular seaons rating: 83.4, playoff average: 76.0

You fail to realize that when Staubach retired he had the highest Quarterback rating in the history of the NFL.

You would penalize him for that!

You and your stats...
 

Town Heretic

Out of Order
Hall of Fame
Then you must actually think that Joe Kapp, Craig Morton and Vince Ferragamo were all better quuarterbacks than Bradshaw! Because those three started in Super Bowls and none of them are on the bottom ten list.
The list is of Super Bowl winning quarterbacks, not Super Bowl participants. For that reason a number of really good qbs didn't get consideration. Kelly isn't among them. Tarkenton isn't on any of the lists. No one who went but didn't win is there. Ryan, nope. Marino? Not there.
 

Town Heretic

Out of Order
Hall of Fame
You fail to realize that when Staubach retired he had the highest Quarterback rating in the history of the NFL.
No, I knew that.

You would penalize him for that!
No, and I wouldn't elevate him for it either. Montana retired with the highest QB rating. Terrific, but he still has to be compared to people who played after him, like Young, who took the honor from him by the time he retired. Then the rules changed saw a handful of others do the same.

You and your stats...
Facts. Sure. There's a reason why the HOF is mostly populated by people with great stats. They reflect great individual performance at position.
 
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Town Heretic

Out of Order
Hall of Fame
So far I'm 9-3 straight up going into tonight's game and I'm 4-8 against the line (man...) going into tonight. So the best I can hope for line wise will be 7-8 and 12-3 straight up.

Well, that's early NFL life for you.
 

Town Heretic

Out of Order
Hall of Fame
Week 1 is now here!

Hall of Fame is in the not just performances but that of championships.
Well...Marino is one of the best qbs of all time. He's in the HOF. He has zero SB rings. The Hall is about a few things. Great teams and accomplishments can get you there (see: Namath, Griese) and individual accomplishment absent that can get you there, a-la Marino, Sanders, etc.
 

beloved57

Well-known member
My Boys were able to pull it out with a great defensive play. I had a feeling this would be a very close game against the Bears. Next week the Packers come to town !
 

Town Heretic

Out of Order
Hall of Fame
This week I was 3-0 against the line.
Excellent. You should try calling all the games. The close ones can kill your average on a given week, but it raises the fun bar and investment. Turned out a little better than I thought. I ended up with against the line 6 wins thanks to your Boys, so I can actually end up on the winning side (forgot there are two games tonight). Meaning if I win both I'll be 8-7 and can actually end with a winning record line wise, which given the week I'll take.

So far?

KC/NE W
Atl/Chi L (missed that one by 1.5)
Buf/Jet W
Bal/Cin L (and a goose egg for the Bengals? Wow)
Pit?Cle L....not sure if Clev played better or the Steelers played lousy, but how is it that close a win?
Arz/Det L...looked like my script early, but then. Same question as with the Steelers game.
Oak/Ten L...not so much a surprise, Oak is terrific, but I had hoped Ten would show more.
Phi/Was W...the Eagles were a little better than hoped for, but that's gravy.
Jac/Hou L...that's what I get for trusting Hou to get it right on any level.
Ind/Rams W...as advertised.
Sea/GB L...tough game. GB needed the note and made a statement.
Car/SF W...foregone.
Gia/Dal W...not as competitive as I thought it would be.

That leaves me looking for a New Orleans upset over Minn and a Bronco's cover against SD in Denver to put me in the overall win column. Straight up ended at 9 wins. Should have had 10 but I forgot to change my Giants/Dal there. :eek: So it should be at 10.
 

Jerry Shugart

Well-known member
Excellent. You should try calling all the games.

I approach this in the same way which I would do if I were going to actually gamble on the games. I pick the games and point spreads which I think gives me the best shot at winning and ignore the rest.

You ought to try it sometimes.
 

WizardofOz

New member
Packers defense looked great against an admittedly weak Seahawks front line.

I am thrilled that the Packers pulled that one off.
 

Town Heretic

Out of Order
Hall of Fame
I approach this in the same way which I would do if I were going to actually gamble on the games. I pick the games and point spreads which I think gives me the best shot at winning and ignore the rest.

You ought to try it sometimes.

I prefer the challenge of having to call every game, including the fairly close contests. I've done it for a number of years here and done fairly well, though I'll admit I don't do the research and apply the same formulas I did when it mattered (it takes money to move me to that kind of time). The best I've done with Pigskin Pick'em put me in the top 15 a few years back, when I was still putting in some work, rating by position then pulling the whole thing together. For the past few I've done well enough for the fun of it, taking averages and making preseason adjustments off guesses, running it all together for the first few weeks to get fairly decent window.


Otherwise I'd look for the money line. This week that would have meant taking KC and not really caring about the rest because outside of the Steelers and Falcons there's no premium. And the Steelers line would have been too big for me to take on the road. I might have taken the Falcons, but the qb and road factor might have moved me off of it...and that means I'd be done after Thursday.

Okay, well if anyone is game to put their neck out on the shooting match, jump in. I'll be doing this every week if I have the time.
 

Town Heretic

Out of Order
Hall of Fame
Packers defense looked great against an admittedly weak Seahawks front line.

I am thrilled that the Packers pulled that one off.
My one question about Seattle going into the season was line play and it still is...they have the talent.

My concern about GB is the loss of Lacy and how they fill that need for balance. Aaron wasn't great last night. Really good, but not great. And their running game was anemic. So there are concerns. On the other side of it, they played solid defense. Take away a couple of scrambles by Wilson and Seattle's running game didn't get it done either, while Wilson was effectively contained passing.

A good night to be a Pack fan. :thumb:
 
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