NFL 2016

[Town Heretic]

The G-men have been lucky, like when the Cowboy's field goal attempt hit the goal post and bounced back. Their luck will run out this week and they will suffer a loss by three points and Dallas will win the trifecta--the Division title, a first round bye, and home field advantage throughout the playoffs!

Entirely possible. I have it a dead heat. I'm thinking it's 3 either way.

 

[john w]

Entirely possible.

Where would we be, TH, without such insight-I had not thought that it was entirely possible?!

What thread is this again?

 

[tetelestai]

The G-men have been lucky

The Giants are 8-1 their last 9 games.

Their only loss was to the Pittsburgh Steelers.

BTW, the Giants are 2-0 against the Cowboys this year.

 

[Daniel1769]

The NFC is garbage. It's hard to imagine any NFC team winning the Superbowl if they'll most likely be coming up against NE, Pit, KC or Oakland who have had great games in a tough AFC. Just pointing that out.

 

[Town Heretic]

Where would we be, TH, without such insight

Best guess? Inside your head.

It's a dead heat. You want drama, aCW has a bucket full over in the corner.

-I had not thought that it was entirely possible?!

Well, I'd already given you:

1. Gia @ Phi: New York is a 2.5 favorite. I have it a dead heat. The differential favors Philly by 1.5....but the Giants have been hot of late, winning 4 of their last 5, while Philly keeps getting a close but not quite, at 0-5. The Giant's have a good offensive line, which should negate Philly's attempts at bringing pressure and give Eli time to deliver, but the Eagles are ball hawks and the Giants won't be running the ball effectively, upping the chance of a feast or famine day for the G-men. Will the problematic run game for the Giants force more turnovers and hand the game to Philly? Or will Eli do enough on offense and his defense force the same problem for the Eagles.

Normally I'll take the team getting not getting points when I have it even, but there's a reason the Giants have won lately and the Eagles haven't...and a fg feels like the likely outcome here. I'll take the Giants on a hunch.

What thread is this again?

:think: "Ol john w's backyard"?

 

[tetelestai]

1. Gia @ Phi: New York is a 2.5 favorite.

Whatever happened to Carson Wentz?

Remember how the rookie QB went the first three games without throwing an interception, was all the talk of the NFL, and the Eagles were 3-0?

Now, he's thrown at least one INT in each of his last five games (8 total), and the Eagles are 5-9.

 

[Daniel1769]

Whatever happened to Carson Wentz?

Remember how the rookie QB went the first three games without throwing an interception, was all the talk of the NFL, and the Eagles were 3-0?

Now, he's thrown at least one INT in each of his last five games (8 total), and the Eagles are 5-9.

The sports media talks about how great Philly is going to be every year.

They got D-Nab and T.O. They're going to the Super Bowl
They got Michael Vick. They're going to the Super Bowl
They got the dream team. They're going to the Super Bowl
They got Chip Kelly. They're a Super Bowl contender.
They got Carson Wentz. They're going to the Super Bowl

It seems every year they try to puff up Philly but it never happens. Now they're last in their division and not making the playoffs. And Carson Wentz has been having a horrible time since week 5 or so.

I told all my Philly fan friends that beating Pittsburgh was their Super Bowl. I told them Philly would finish last in their division, miss the playoffs, and the come January, their fans would be talking about how they beat Pittsburgh at the beginning of the season because that was the only thing they accomplished.

 

[john w]

Best guess? Inside your head.

It's a dead heat. You want drama, aCW has a bucket full over in the corner.



Well, I'd already given you:



:think: "Ol john w's backyard"?

All right, that's it.....You have now moved down to my "17th favorite Town Heretic," and you are blowing it!

 

[Town Heretic]

All right, that's it.....You have now moved down to my "17th favorite Town Heretic,"

Though in fairness the other 16 are sock puppets.

and you are blowing it!

Curiously enough, that was the general critical reception to my all brass, jazz-funk album entitled, "Horny For You". lain:

I was never clear on what they meant by it either.

 

[john w]

Whatever happened to Carson Wentz?

His career was fulfilled in AD 1970. You're in denial.

 

[Jerry Shugart]

Try this:the Cowboys will fold faster than those who draw against either Quick Draw McGraw, or the great, humble, and most feared hombres of TOL, John W, AKA, "The Rifleman."

How long can you hold a grudge?

You are still mad at Dallas because they turned down your request to be a Dallas Cowboy's Cheerleader.

Get over it!

 

[john w]

How long can you hold a grudge?

You are still mad at Dallas because they turned down your request to be a Dallas Cowboy's Cheerleader.

Get over it!

Negatory. I am being objective. And the only time I got "mad" with the Cowboys was when they cut Clint Longley.

And I dance better than those overrated cheerleaders.

 

[Daniel1769]

Apparently the Steelers/Ravens game is only going to be broadcast on the NFL Network. Apparently the solution to falling ratings is to put one of the best games on a channel no one has. Way to go, NFL.

 

[Jerry Shugart]

Apparently the Steelers/Ravens game is only going to be broadcast on the NFL Network. Apparently the solution to falling ratings is to put one of the best games on a channel no one has. Way to go, NFL.

That is terrible!

How do you see this bet:

At Pittsburgh -5
Baltimore

Which way would you go?

Thanks!

 

[Daniel1769]

That is terrible!

How do you see this bet:

At Pittsburgh -5
Baltimore

Which way would you go?

Thanks!

I say the Steelers win by 4 in a battle. Pittsburgh is getting hot now, and should shut down Baltimore's offense like they did to Buffalo and NYG, but they always seem to struggle in Baltimore no matter how good they're playing. I say Steelers pull out a win in a close game.

 

[Jerry Shugart]

I say the Steelers win by 4 in a battle. Pittsburgh is getting hot now, and should shut down Baltimore's offense like they did to Buffalo and NYG, but they always seem to struggle in Baltimore no matter how good they're playing. I say Steelers pull out a win in a close game.

Thanks!

The Steelers better get off to a better start than they did against the Bengals or else they will get beat.

 

[Town Heretic]

Thanks!

The Steelers better get off to a better start than they did against the Bengals or else they will get beat.

I hate the line because I have them between 1 and 6...I know. The differential is 4.5 and I think the likelihood is a game under the spread. Closer to 20-21.

 

[Jerry Shugart]

I hate the line because I have them between 1 and 6...I know. The differential is 4.5 and I think the likelihood is a game under the spread. Closer to 20-21.

So you are taking the points and going with the Ravens?

What about tonight's game?:

NY Giants -2.5
At Philadelphia

Which way do you go?

Thanks!

 

[Town Heretic]

So you are taking the points and going with the Ravens?

What about tonight's game?:

NY Giants -2.5
At Philadelphia

Which way do you go?

Thanks!

Pittsburgh/Baltimore
The differential is a point back of the spread, but opinions among the know it alls is split between a one pt squeaker and a six pt/lay the points outcome.

The Steelers are 11th at putting points on the board. How? 5th best passing attack and the 12th best rushing. Baltimore's defense is effectively tied for 4th in pts allowed, 10th against the pass and you don't run on them (2nd).

Baltimore is a less worrisome 19th in pts scored. They're 11th best passing but 28th rushing, making them fairly one dimensional against a Steelers defense that is 9th in pts allowed...4th against the rush, but 14th against the pass, meaning the right qb can move the ball but he better put it in the end zone, because punching it in isn't much of an option (and Baltimore can't do that anyway).

There's your problem. Both teams need to pass to score. Both will need to score from the air and outside or settle for fgs. That's why this one feels close. So who has the better special teams and fg unit? That may be the difference here.

The answer: Baltimore. Not even close. Perfect on extra points, their kicker's longest is 57, and he's 3-3 inside 30, 8-9 30 to 39, 12 of 12 from there to 50, and 10 for 10 up to that 57. That's scary enough.

The Steelers? Not bad either. 49 at the long end, but he hasn't had to put as many up, being 10 fgs short of Philly because of the Steeler offense.

Punting? Baltimore. 4th best average in the league. Steelers? 14th. And Pittsburgh has had a punt of theirs blocked. Baltimore has put 32 inside the 20. Steelers? 22 inside the 20. And Baltimore is a stingy 6th in returns allowed. The Steelers are 19th.

So in a game that looks to be close, Baltimore has the edge. I'm not saying they win (but they could). I'm saying it's the sum of why I don't like laying those points and why if I had to I'd take the dog here.


The Giants/Philly game is another statistical near dead heat. One only the bookies love. The differential is Philly and 1.5 ish, but just about everyone I know likes New York by a fg to 6. So there's not smart money to be had here either.

Eagles offense: middle of the road in pts allowed, lowish end on passing yards, which is where they'll have to move it against the Giants because while Philly is ninth in rushing, the Giants are 6th on defense against the rush. Another problem, the red zone. New York is stingy in it, in part because it's so hard to run on them.

Giants offense: They can't run against anyone and they're inconsistent on offense...wait, is this Denver for the NFC? No, can't be, they're winning. But Philly is 12th against the pass and weak against the run. Eli is going to have to bring his A game to win or the running game is going to have to be more productive. Philly is a middle of the pack team in pts allowed, in part because you can run on them.

If you could count on the G-men offense this would be a no brainer. I'm going to guess they run enough to make Eli comfortable and he scores enough to let his defense win a close one. So I'll lay the points with a grimace.

 

[Jerry Shugart]

So in a game that looks to be close, Baltimore has the edge. I'm not saying they win (but they could). I'm saying it's the sum of why I don't like laying those points and why if I had to I'd take the dog here.

If you could count on the G-men offense this would be a no brainer. I'm going to guess they run enough to make Eli comfortable and he scores enough to let his defense win a close one. So I'll lay the points with a grimace.

Thanks for sharing your thoughts with me!

Of course I hope that you are wrong about the Giants game.