Just about that time again to start the regular season of broken dreams and prognostications that is the NFL season. Let's. Not really ready with my model so I'll live and die by winging it this week. As always, I predict by line and leave the coin flipping nonsense to people who don't follow the game closely enough to do more.
Week 1
1. Car @ Den: the Super Bowl rematch, sans a few important pieces, has the line favoring the Panthers by 3. I know it's in Denver and I know Peyton wasn't Peyton the last time around. Which is more important? The money is running toward Carolina (betters) at that margin like kids for Koolaid, 80/20. I'm going to take the upset here. I haven't set my book yet, so I can't call a score, but Carolina was embarrassed, Denver has lost important pieces. It should be the Panthers perfect storm of revenge...Just a feel thing here.
Call: Denver in the upset. Maybe Carolina by one.
2. TB @ Atl: another year, another offensive system for the Falcons...well, no, but it feels that way. At present the birds seem determined to do less with more than the Maddux, Glavine, Smoltz Braves managed. Unfair to the Braves, I know...okay, the line has it Tampa and 3. I suppose it comes down to whether or not you believe Winston is continuing to progress and if the Falcons are capable of progressing. Additional problems for the Falcons include a hobbled Freeny on defense and, more importantly, Jones at WR. Money has it an unconvicted 55/45 for TB.
Call: I just can't find faith in Atlanta, so I'm going with Tampa and the hot young hand.
3. Buf @ Bal: in a game only their mothers will love. The line has Bal favored by 3.5. Neither of these teams has shown anyone anything, so I'm going to think about the coaching...done. The money is all over that spread, picking the upset (ostensibly hung on that extra .5 and not as an endorsement of Ryan's method acting) 64/36. :think: I know preseason doesn't mean much, but in their last outing, with more starters playing most of the snaps, Baltimore looked ready to compete. Buffalo had 31 hung on them without answering by the might Lions.
Call: Ravens. Ryan begins his short season march toward unemployment compensation.
4. Chi @ Hou: let the next qb experiment in Texas begin (well, one of them). The line is convinced Houston has solved its problem, taking the Texans by 4.5. The money is 76/24 in favor of a sad flight home for the visiting team. Chicago is Chicago unless and until they prove otherwise...but then, who are the Texans?
Call: That's a lot of unproven points. Watt being questionable for the game makes me nervous, as does the guy under center (either). . . Hate calling this one, but let's go with Houston taking a shot at getting that signal calling monkey off their back. Texans.
5. Cin @ Jets: for some reason the line here is a modest 3 in favor of the Bengals. Did the Jets do something while I was napping? :idunno: Money has it 72/28 Cin. The Bengals are pretty good football team. The Jets?
Call: Bengals.
6. Cle @ Phi: the Eagles go into this game a heavy favorite with the line at 6.5 in favor. That many points has a nervous money crowd nodding yes at 53/47. The Eagle D has looked good so far, the offense, sporadic, but with potential. Cleveland has no real offense and a passable defense.
Call: Philly should mangle the Browns setting up their next half years worth of unrealistic expectations.
7. GB @ Jac: the Jaguars are looking more like a team that could surprise and less like, well, Jacksonville. On the other side of the ball is a team with a lot to prove at the offensive skill positions and otherwise, but a team that was beating people pretty badly until the wheels started wobbling. The line is a not so nervous 4.5 in favor of GB. But then, consider what that line would have been a couple of years ago. Money is split 81/19 in a GB amen, so only the gamblers are taking the Jags (one Jag team upset a week seems like plenty--go South Alabama!).
Call: I like GB by a td in a real contest.
8. Min @ Ten: two teams with more problems than a math exam and no one outside of their respective homes to care. The line is Vikes and 2.5. The money doesn't want anything to do with it, 55/45 in favor. That's all I care to do with this one.
Call: Coin flip. Give me the Ten.
9. SD @ KC: the line is KC and 7.5, which is the only reason the money is running a nervous 57/43 against. KC is better coached and better at most of the skill positions. This should be their game, especially at home. But that's one reason to be concerned. The other is the enormous size of that line...
Call: KC in a blow-out.
10. Oak @ NO: the Saints are a 1.5 fav at home by line...if you can call a point and a half being favored. The money is evenly split. Oakland had a respectable effort in a close loss against Seattle in their final preseason game. New Orleans got bum rushed by Baltimore in New Orleans. Maybe it's time to begin the rebuilding all around in the Big Easy...except at QB, of course.
Call: Oakland.
11. Mia @ Sea: seriously, is this about as anemic an opening week schedule as you could have envisioned or what? Okay, the Hawks are the obvious favorite here. The line has it a bruising 9.5 in favor. Even with that line the money is 57/43 sure Seattle can pull it off.
Call: Seattle isn't the old Seattle, which they only were for about two years...but Miami still looks an awful lot like Miami with an emphasis on awful. Seahawks.
12. Gia @ Dal: would have been more compelling with Romo under center. I mean more compelling if you wanted to bet the Cowboys. I'm actually more interested in this game without him. The line is Dal by 3.5. But I think that happened before the Romo injury...or maybe not. Money is an understandable 70/30 against that line.
Call: Giants.
13. Det @ Ind: my Colts are a 5.5 fav by line. The money says amen at 73/27. Who am I to argue?
Call:
14. NE @ Arz: the game that might have revived a dismal scheduling by the front office instead offers us this...thanks commissioner. I really, really can't wait...for Tom Brady to take the field and make the Pats interesting. Don't tell me how good his back up looked in preseason (did he?). This isn't preseason. This is also at Arizona and they're a really, really good football team. The line has Ariz by 5.5 and the money is 65/35 in favor, with the 35 being, of course, the entire state of Massachusetts.lain:
Call: Seriously?
15. Pit @ Was: two teams with a few things to prove about their general direction...okay, one team. The Steelers just have to stay healthy and field a three dimensional offense at some point. The line says Pit by an unenthusiastic but solid 3.5. A number of computer models are taking Washington to upset at home. The money isn't buying the worry that might create, going 75/25 in favor of the visiting Steelers.
Call: The preseason late loss to Carolina made Pit look fairly unimpressive while the Redskins looked solid getting past TB in their closing of the meaningless contest period...the optimal word being meaningless. Steelers.
16. LA @ SF: is it just me or does that feel right? I mean geographically speaking. The game no one waited for is capping the week. Okay. Here goes. The line is the Rams by an amazing 2.5. I mean it's amazing that anyone actually has a line on this game. The money (both dollars) is 73/27 in favor.
Call: Just to be contrary, SF.
Week 1
1. Car @ Den: the Super Bowl rematch, sans a few important pieces, has the line favoring the Panthers by 3. I know it's in Denver and I know Peyton wasn't Peyton the last time around. Which is more important? The money is running toward Carolina (betters) at that margin like kids for Koolaid, 80/20. I'm going to take the upset here. I haven't set my book yet, so I can't call a score, but Carolina was embarrassed, Denver has lost important pieces. It should be the Panthers perfect storm of revenge...Just a feel thing here.
Call: Denver in the upset. Maybe Carolina by one.
2. TB @ Atl: another year, another offensive system for the Falcons...well, no, but it feels that way. At present the birds seem determined to do less with more than the Maddux, Glavine, Smoltz Braves managed. Unfair to the Braves, I know...okay, the line has it Tampa and 3. I suppose it comes down to whether or not you believe Winston is continuing to progress and if the Falcons are capable of progressing. Additional problems for the Falcons include a hobbled Freeny on defense and, more importantly, Jones at WR. Money has it an unconvicted 55/45 for TB.
Call: I just can't find faith in Atlanta, so I'm going with Tampa and the hot young hand.
3. Buf @ Bal: in a game only their mothers will love. The line has Bal favored by 3.5. Neither of these teams has shown anyone anything, so I'm going to think about the coaching...done. The money is all over that spread, picking the upset (ostensibly hung on that extra .5 and not as an endorsement of Ryan's method acting) 64/36. :think: I know preseason doesn't mean much, but in their last outing, with more starters playing most of the snaps, Baltimore looked ready to compete. Buffalo had 31 hung on them without answering by the might Lions.
Call: Ravens. Ryan begins his short season march toward unemployment compensation.
4. Chi @ Hou: let the next qb experiment in Texas begin (well, one of them). The line is convinced Houston has solved its problem, taking the Texans by 4.5. The money is 76/24 in favor of a sad flight home for the visiting team. Chicago is Chicago unless and until they prove otherwise...but then, who are the Texans?
Call: That's a lot of unproven points. Watt being questionable for the game makes me nervous, as does the guy under center (either). . . Hate calling this one, but let's go with Houston taking a shot at getting that signal calling monkey off their back. Texans.
5. Cin @ Jets: for some reason the line here is a modest 3 in favor of the Bengals. Did the Jets do something while I was napping? :idunno: Money has it 72/28 Cin. The Bengals are pretty good football team. The Jets?
Call: Bengals.
6. Cle @ Phi: the Eagles go into this game a heavy favorite with the line at 6.5 in favor. That many points has a nervous money crowd nodding yes at 53/47. The Eagle D has looked good so far, the offense, sporadic, but with potential. Cleveland has no real offense and a passable defense.
Call: Philly should mangle the Browns setting up their next half years worth of unrealistic expectations.
7. GB @ Jac: the Jaguars are looking more like a team that could surprise and less like, well, Jacksonville. On the other side of the ball is a team with a lot to prove at the offensive skill positions and otherwise, but a team that was beating people pretty badly until the wheels started wobbling. The line is a not so nervous 4.5 in favor of GB. But then, consider what that line would have been a couple of years ago. Money is split 81/19 in a GB amen, so only the gamblers are taking the Jags (one Jag team upset a week seems like plenty--go South Alabama!).
Call: I like GB by a td in a real contest.
8. Min @ Ten: two teams with more problems than a math exam and no one outside of their respective homes to care. The line is Vikes and 2.5. The money doesn't want anything to do with it, 55/45 in favor. That's all I care to do with this one.
Call: Coin flip. Give me the Ten.
9. SD @ KC: the line is KC and 7.5, which is the only reason the money is running a nervous 57/43 against. KC is better coached and better at most of the skill positions. This should be their game, especially at home. But that's one reason to be concerned. The other is the enormous size of that line...
Call: KC in a blow-out.
10. Oak @ NO: the Saints are a 1.5 fav at home by line...if you can call a point and a half being favored. The money is evenly split. Oakland had a respectable effort in a close loss against Seattle in their final preseason game. New Orleans got bum rushed by Baltimore in New Orleans. Maybe it's time to begin the rebuilding all around in the Big Easy...except at QB, of course.
Call: Oakland.
11. Mia @ Sea: seriously, is this about as anemic an opening week schedule as you could have envisioned or what? Okay, the Hawks are the obvious favorite here. The line has it a bruising 9.5 in favor. Even with that line the money is 57/43 sure Seattle can pull it off.
Call: Seattle isn't the old Seattle, which they only were for about two years...but Miami still looks an awful lot like Miami with an emphasis on awful. Seahawks.
12. Gia @ Dal: would have been more compelling with Romo under center. I mean more compelling if you wanted to bet the Cowboys. I'm actually more interested in this game without him. The line is Dal by 3.5. But I think that happened before the Romo injury...or maybe not.
Money is an understandable 70/30 against that line. Call: Giants.
13. Det @ Ind: my Colts are a 5.5 fav by line. The money says amen at 73/27. Who am I to argue?
Call:
14. NE @ Arz: the game that might have revived a dismal scheduling by the front office instead offers us this...thanks commissioner. I really, really can't wait...for Tom Brady to take the field and make the Pats interesting. Don't tell me how good his back up looked in preseason (did he?). This isn't preseason. This is also at Arizona and they're a really, really good football team. The line has Ariz by 5.5 and the money is 65/35 in favor, with the 35 being, of course, the entire state of Massachusetts.
lain:Call: Seriously?
15. Pit @ Was: two teams with a few things to prove about their general direction...okay, one team. The Steelers just have to stay healthy and field a three dimensional offense at some point. The line says Pit by an unenthusiastic but solid 3.5. A number of computer models are taking Washington to upset at home. The money isn't buying the worry that might create, going 75/25 in favor of the visiting Steelers.
Call: The preseason late loss to Carolina made Pit look fairly unimpressive while the Redskins looked solid getting past TB in their closing of the meaningless contest period...the optimal word being meaningless. Steelers.
16. LA @ SF: is it just me or does that feel right? I mean geographically speaking. The game no one waited for is capping the week. Okay. Here goes. The line is the Rams by an amazing 2.5. I mean it's amazing that anyone actually has a line on this game. The money (both dollars) is 73/27 in favor.
Call: Just to be contrary, SF.
