Here's my response to the whole mess. I don't completely trust any of it, including Leonard from MIT, who has to "surmise" that the Colts balls weren't problematic in measurement because they had warmed when he doesn't know that's true. The better surmise would have been that the Colts weren't trying to hit the league minimum so a reduction below the standard shouldn't be observed and any marginal notation below that would be for the same reason he suggests for the Pats, the degree owing more to the effort to legally lower the balls by New England.
But then you have a few problems. Brady's destruction of his cell phone. The texts that weren't so much "ambiguous" as suggestive, which is why parts of them were used to establish the greater probability. Brady's calls to the men in charge of the balls. The sudden bathroom break with those balls prior to game time. Robert Kraft's capitulation to the commissioner. Collectively they paint a picture at odds with the strong defense that came after someone had enough time to explain the particulars away, or attempt to.
I'd have put that in front of a jury. And outside of New England I believe I'd have gotten a conviction. Because its a convincing mound of circumstantial evidence...look, maybe Tom does destroy his old phone when he gets a new one, but the timing of getting and destroying, especially in light of requests for that instrument and the foreseeable chance of further legal action and subpoena, makes it a fairly daming coincidence. And Jim McNally did take game balls into a restroom a couple of minutes before the game, took them out of the control of referees to do it. Prior to the game we have texts between McNally and his partner about air pressure of the balls, leading any sane human being to understand Tom made a deal out of it and it was a present concern of those entrusted with preparation. McNally called himself the deflator, for Pete's sake.
But couldn't that have been within the confines of the letter of the NFL law? Absolutely. Tom's role prior to the nonsense could have been to simply insist on the low legal end. But the texts give us reason to suspect it was a point of emphasis for him and that emphasis became the impetus for an action, at least an attempt, to do something without regard for league rules and with at least the reasonable suspicion of an attempt to skirt them, else do it before they're measured.
Some qbs have argued that they can tell the difference between the normal inflation and the lower inflation and that it gives an unfair advantage because teams use their own balls for the game instead of a common pool. That practice should end yesterday. But I say look at the tale of the tape before and after the balls were adjusted. Great play/great play. As for Tom, it's as likely that he merely demanded the limit and his texts and uncharacteristic attention to McNally and company post-scandal break was the sort of conduct you'd exhibit if you thought someone had been too aggressive on the point and wanted to know what to prepare for.
What I'm suggesting is that the evidence doesn't hang Brady in any event. It paints an unfortunate picture of someone who gives enough grief to underlings that they feel compelled to do something they shouldn't have, but that's the limit for me. Thereafter it looks more like someone attempting to cover up the incident, to make sure that whatever information he received stayed his. That would explain the team response, Kraft's response. And I still think it was worth a game or two, but would have settled, as commissioner, for a quiet lecture and the Patriot's team penalty.
Now if anyone wants to consider Brady and company the victims of a league bias and accept that every bit of that evidence is awful and explainable coincidence, by all means do so and good luck in New England...or wherever you've moved from New England, but that bias, to the extent it may exist, isn't there because the league hates winners. And the reason it is there is also reason to look at a confluence of coincidences with a more skeptical eye, even if, like me, you ultimately feel the matter has been done to death and sufficient grief distributed to satisfy anyone not carrying a rusty ax.