NFL 2015

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Granite

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Predictions for Sunday?

I still feel pretty anxious but I think this is finally the game where the Pats get a monkey off their back and win a playoff game in Denver.

Also, the weather doesn't look too promising for Peyton.
 

Town Heretic

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Predictions for Sunday?
Working on it.

I still feel pretty anxious but I think this is finally the game where the Pats get a monkey off their back and win a playoff game in Denver.
I honestly don't know what to think. I'm going to dive into the numbers in minute, but from the outside...I think too much is made of the weather. That's mostly about familiarity. All of the great cold weather qbs played in cold weather environments. Unsurprisingly, they fared better when people who didn't came to their environs during the coldest part of the year.

I'd be more concerned about weather if Peyton hadn't had a few years in it himself now. I'm more concerned by not knowing how much is in that tank, desire notwithstanding. I've seen him move the ball effectively since coming off the bench. His numbers were decent last week, better if you factor in a large number of inexcusable drops, but if this is pre that last Super Bowl debacle I'd be a lot more confident. Now?

Sometimes the wheels come off and the immortals just look...killable. I think Manning was always a guy who took an average instrument and made it ridiculously effective by a force of will and mental ability. But the problem for those guys is what I call the Roger Craig factor.

Craig took a decent frame and worked it into absurd shape, used mental discipline to become one of the best all purpose backs I've ever seen. But when the body falters with one of those guys it's like a light switch turning. Because they've made themselves to the margin. They can't compensate for any decline in their physical game.

If you see that sort of drive in a physically gifted athlete you get Jordan. Sometimes you see a ridiculously physically gifted athelete who lacks that drive and they extend their careers when the body starts to go by increasing their work, like Warren Sapp. But for the Craigs of the world, it's either over in a blink or they hang around on reputation for a couple of years until everyone realizes it's over and no amount of leadership or know-how can compensate.

Peyton is a Craig. At his position you can extend a little, like a fastball pitcher learning to throw junk or relief, but only a little. I'd always hoped he would retire before we saw the little. This game will tell us, definitively, if it's injury and getting in gear/sync or it's simply time to dim the lights, tip our hat to a great one and wish him well in his next endeavor.
 

Granite

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When it's cold, he doesn't win playoff games.

Ever.

As for your brother's retirement--yeah, I'm just gonna call you "Cooper" on this thread--I'd say he's a season or two overdue. Nothing would've pleased me more than him winning another ring and riding off into the sunset. But no one, no team, was going to beat Seattle.
 

Town Heretic

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When it's cold, he doesn't win playoff games.

Ever.
As for your brother's retirement--yeah, I'm just gonna call you "Cooper" on this thread--I'd say he's a season or two overdue.
Or two? Last season Peyton's looked like this: 4,727 yds, 7.9 avg, 39 Tds, 15 Ints, 66% completition and a season 101.5 rating.

Cold weather playoff games...the reason most people isolate it that way is because if you look at temperature and games it's 8-11 (or 9-11, but I'll get to that at the end), which doesn't let them make the point they're really wanting to make. So they narrow it to a lesser sampling and try to invent something that is as goofy as trotting out the number of one and dones. The fact is he's won in cold almost as often as he's lost and for all those one and done's he's a Super Bowl MVP.

The high in Denver the day Pittsburg played the Broncos was 43 degrees. So if you're not going to count that as a cold weather win, you're just balmy. :eek:

Nothing would've pleased me more than him winning another ring and riding off into the sunset. But no one, no team, was going to beat Seattle.
Probably not. But a healthy Manning could have made it a game.
 

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And the wind was brutal. It's looking to be better weather this Sunday.
Good. I'd like to see another memorable one. Let it come down to fourth quarter drives in a close game with the reigning king of that prevailing...preferably by a td, but a kick would be fitting.
 

Nihilo

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when the body falters with one of those guys it's like a light switch turning. Because they've made themselves to the margin. They can't compensate for any decline in their physical game.
I think what makes Brady so good is that this is where he began his career. He developed his abilities throughout the years, but he is still just round six Tom Brady. Not fast, not a particularly strong arm, but he began his career being extraordinarily careful.

This is what Manning finally had to learn, just last week. Brady has a 15 year head start on him. I don't see Manning beating Brady at his own game. Plus, Brady is arguably more athletic right now than he's ever been.
 

Granite

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I think what makes Brady so good is that this is where he began his career. He developed his abilities throughout the years, but he is still just round six Tom Brady. Not fast, not a particularly strong arm, but he began his career being extraordinarily careful.

This is what Manning finally had to learn, just last week. Brady has a 15 year head start on him. I don't see Manning beating Brady at his own game. Plus, Brady is arguably more athletic right now than he's ever been.

When he "runs" he generally still looks like a water buffalo stuck in wet concrete but overall he's gotten better with time. Good thing his parents didn't name him Grace.:chuckle:
 

Town Heretic

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I think what makes Brady so good is that this is where he began his career. He developed his abilities throughout the years, but he is still just round six Tom Brady. Not fast, not a particularly strong arm, but he began his career being extraordinarily careful.
Don't underestimate his arm. It's solid. There aren't that many cannons in the NFL and those who have them tend to develop sloppy habits that can cost them the benefit often enough, like Favre.

Tom is a lot like his idol. He's quick, athletic enough to move around and create opportunities for his wrs and he's been in the same system for a long time, tweaked or no. One that has been tailored to play to his strengths under center.

This is what Manning finally had to learn, just last week.
Not sure why you think that. Peyton never had the arm and wasn't that mobile coming out of college. He knew his game would live or die between his ears, which is why he is as noted for game prep as some are for being gym rats.

Brady has a 15 year head start on him. I don't see Manning beating Brady at his own game. Plus, Brady is arguably more athletic right now than he's ever been.
I'll say that unlike Tom, Peyton is having to deal with a relatively new offense and one that wasn't tailored to him. A huge mistake that I think they paid for this year before moving it a bit. We'll see how it works out in the end. Neither of these guys are what they were a few years ago, but I don't think it should worry them, given that what's left (question marks notwithstanding for Peyton) still has them in the top tier.
 

Nihilo

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When he "runs" he generally still looks like a water buffalo stuck in wet concrete but overall he's gotten better with time. Good thing his parents didn't name him Grace.:chuckle:
Absolutely, he's the slowest guy on the field, probably even slower than some of the refs. But he's quicker/lighter on his feet this season. It's remarkable how good he looks given his already lengthy career. Last year, I thought he had maybe 2-3 more solid years in him, but now . . . it's just remarkable.
 

Nihilo

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Don't underestimate his arm. It's solid. There aren't that many cannons in the NFL and those who have them tend to develop sloppy habits that can cost them the benefit often enough, like Favre.
You're right, that was a bit of troll on my part. His arm does look very good, and has for a while now. I remember watching a QB contest he participated in after his first SB, and he out-threw all the other competitors at the time. It shocked me to see him air out something like a 70-yard pass. At the time, his forte was the old "dink-n-dunk."
Tom is a lot like his idol. He's quick, athletic enough to move around and create opportunities for his wrs and he's been in the same system for a long time, tweaked or no. One that has been tailored to play to his strengths under center.
Eh. I think he's not quick, and he's barely athletic enough to do what he needs to do, but that goes more to your comment about the system he's playing in, and playcalling, IMO. Joe (I presume this is his idol?) was physically tougher than Brady, and had to be, given the rules not protecting QBs as much in the 80s as over the past 15 years. They both can inspire a devastating confidence in their teams though.
Not sure why you think that. Peyton never had the arm and wasn't that mobile coming out of college.
Mainly, because he reminded me of an early Brady last week. He was cautious. It was as if he was playing in his first big game, and he really didn't want to mess up, and he didn't look as confident as he has to my eyes always tried to look, but instead he seemed more comfortable. It was nice to watch, and I was happy for him. He had something to prove, and he did, which again, reminds me of an early Brady.
He knew his game would live or die between his ears, which is why he is as noted for game prep as some are for being gym rats.
Every QB's game lives or dies between the ears. I think I saw something click for Manning last week that I have literally never seen before in him; and ease, a settling, a quiet confidence, a . . . he was composed. That was new.
I'll say that unlike Tom, Peyton is having to deal with a relatively new offense and one that wasn't tailored to him. A huge mistake that I think they paid for this year before moving it a bit. We'll see how it works out in the end. Neither of these guys are what they were a few years ago, but I don't think it should worry them, given that what's left (question marks notwithstanding for Peyton) still has them in the top tier.
Brady looks better or at least as good as he's ever looked.

As for the game, I can see it being a blowout in either direction, or a tight 4th-Q/OT affair. :idunno:
 

Town Heretic

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You're right, that was a bit of troll on my part. His arm does look very good, and has for a while now. I remember watching a QB contest he participated in after his first SB, and he out-threw all the other competitors at the time. It shocked me to see him air out something like a 70-yard pass. At the time, his forte was the old "dink-n-dunk."
More what he had to work with. When he had Moss he could put it downfield in a hurry. And the arm is, as Marino once noted, the last thing to go...though actually it's the mind, but Marino had no way to know that. :eek:

Eh. I think he's not quick, and he's barely athletic enough to do what he needs to do, but that goes more to your comment about the system he's playing in, and playcalling, IMO. Joe (I presume this is his idol?) was physically tougher than Brady, and had to be, given the rules not protecting QBs as much in the 80s as over the past 15 years
I don't know that he's less tough than Joe, who played a lot of his games in the warm sunshine of California. Brady can move around in the pocket. You don't have to be a runner. He looks pretty mobile to me. Not comparing him to Rodgers at this point in his career, but he's as mobile as you need for a qb who isn't going to tuck and take off with the ball.

They both can inspire a devastating confidence in their teams though. Mainly, because he reminded me of an early Brady last week. He was cautious. It was as if he was playing in his first big game, and he really didn't want to mess up, and he didn't look as confident as he has to my eyes always tried to look, but instead he seemed more comfortable. It was nice to watch, and I was happy for him. He had something to prove, and he did, which again, reminds me of an early Brady.
I think part of that is the system and he knows (as his wrs proved several times) that he doesn't have the same group of sure hands, that he can't count on the running game, so he'd better take what he can get from the defense as often as it presents, instead of looking for the big play. That's probably best given this set up.

Every QB's game lives or dies between the ears. I think I saw something click for Manning last week that I have literally never seen before in him; and ease, a settling, a quiet confidence, a . . . he was composed. That was new.
I think he's not hitting the field believing he has (or could) do it all, carry the team. It's new and maybe better. Time will tell.

Brady looks better or at least as good as he's ever looked.
I think he looks great. I don't think 2007 or 20011 is coming again, but so what? It's the best he's played in the last four years at any rate.
As for the game, I can see it being a blowout in either direction, or a tight 4th-Q/OT affair. :idunno:
Well that's hard to argue with. :chuckle:
 

Town Heretic

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Granite will like this...so I don't have my notebook with the numbers I'd use to call the games. Didn't feel like waiting on them so I put together the averages and a quick system/standard for applying them equally and reran the playoffs following the new system. I'll begin with the games played and end with predictions for the two upcoming. So far the quick pick system is 6-2 in predicting the winner. Curiously enough, the Steelers were involved in both upsets.

Wild Card (3-1)

KC @ Hou
Pred: 21-14 KC
Scor: 30-0 KC

Pit @ Cin
Pred: 19-21 Cin
Scor: 18-16 Pit

Sea @ Min
Pred: 19-14 Sea
Scor: 10-9 Sea

GB @ Was
Pred: 24-21 GB
Scor: 35-18 GB

Divisional (3-1)

KC @ NE
Pred: 22-25 NE
Scor:20-27 NE

GB @ Arz
Pred: 16-31 Arz
Scor: 20-26 Arz

Sea @ Car
Pred: 18-28 Car
Scor: 24-31 Car

Pit @ Den
Pred: 20-18 Pit
Scor: 16-23 Den

Championship

New England and Carolina are both 3 pt favorites at present.

NE @ Den
Pred: 26-20 NE

Arz @ Car
Pred: 24-28 Car
 

Nihilo

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http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/23/s...nce-at-new-england-patriots-expense.html?_r=0

A year later and the one thing that seems more apparent than ever is that the NFL overreached and botched a non-story from the start.
You know, it's really not fair to just allow deflate gate to fade into the woodwork of history. It was riding a wave of suspicion that turns out to have been unwarranted. It's almost as if, in contradistinction to what most NE-haters claim, there is a conspiracy against the Pats/Brady. "Icing the kicker" is a thing in football . . . this is like "icing the QB," writ large.
 
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