I don't think last year has any bearing on these Finals for the following reasons:
1) Kevin Durant wasn't not on the Warriors last season.
Agreed. And he should be the difference.
2) Last the season the Warriors were a bit drained from chasing 73 wins. This was clearly evident as they lost five playoff games entering the NBA Finals. This year they have yet to lose and they look much more relaxed and focused without the drama of chasing 73 wins.
Not sure I agree with that. I think they're just better with Durant. It takes a lot of stress off any run.
3) Injuries. Last season Steph Curry was not 100% in the postseason due to the seriously sprained knee. He couldn't drive or "stop on a dime" like he was used to. Then in the finals the Warriors lost Andrew Bogut, their only solid big man. This postseason Zaza Pachulia and JaVale McGee have been solid down in the post.
I absolutely agree that health played a role in both meetings.
Despite all this last season the Warriors did have a 3-1 series lead and had Draymond Green not been suspended for game 5 IMO the Warriors close out the Cavs in 5 games. To their credit, I give the Cavs major props for playing hard on every ball those last three games and winning the NBA title in perhaps the greatest upset in NBA Finals history. What the Cavs did was amazing and I am glad they were able to finally break Cleveland's 52 year pro sports title drought.
It was a special series, looking in from the outside. I enjoyed watching it. I hope this one goes seven.
But this season the Warriors are heads and shoulders above the Cavs.
That's what everyone said last year too. They're better when you think about it, even if they're really not playing better than last year. But James is across the court with a couple of remarkable players and that gives them a puncher's chance if they can clean up the mental mistakes/turnovers.
1) The Warriors won 16 more games than the Cavs.
They did that last year too, didn't they?
2) The Warriors had an 11.6 point differential to the Cavs 3.1. The Warriors point differential is the 4th highest in NBA history. The NBA record is 12.3 by the 1971-72 Los Angeles Lakers. When Durant was injured in March and missed 6 weeks the Warriors had an absurd 12.8 point differential. Had Durant not missed those six weeks the Warriors likely break the Lakers' record.
Thing is, oddly, GS is only a pt better on offense this year over last and essentially the same on defense. But I think the difference is they can match output this year without as much effort, without needing a hot streak, because of Duran. Cleveland, on the other hand, has gotten six pts better on offense, BUT they've given up almost nine more pts. They need to play stronger in the paint, collect the offensive rbs they should get against GS. If they do that and play the averages on offense they can beat you.
3) Offensive Rating- The Warriors were #1 in offensive rating. The Cavs were #3.
I have them 4th, behind GS, Houston and Denver on offensive output.
4) Defensive Rating- The Warriors were #2 in defensive rating just a hair behind the Spurs. The Cavs were #21 in defensive rating.
How do you figure that anyway? GS gave up about what they did last year, 104 pts on average. Ten teams held opponents to fewer points than that.
The problem the Cavs have is that their defense is just not very good compared to the Warriors offense. In the Warriors we are literally seeing one of the greatest teams in NBA history. The Cavs are not one of the greatest teams in NBA history. It's as simple as that really. If both teams play to their potential the Warriors are simply superior. And all the available objective evidence shows this.
It really feels a lot like last year. Everyone was saying that going in and not so much going out. I think GS should win. I thought they should have won last year and they have an easier time of it with Durant on board, but I can see the games best player and the two terrific players around him having a say in that. I always thought the Lakers were more talented than Bird's Celtics, but it didn't lead to a Laker domination of them head to head.
I hope it's a close, fun series no matter who wins it.