Its the Economy, Stupid!
- Thread starter Jerry Shugart
- Start date
ok doser
lifeguard at the cement pond
23 days to go! :banana:
Almost all of them accurately reported that the "Moscow mayor's wife" hoax was unsupported by evidence.
ok doser
lifeguard at the cement pond
Oh, sorry barbie
Turns out you're lying
https://m.washingtontimes.com/news/...&utm_medium=facebook&utm_source=socialnetwork
Jerry Shugart
Well-known member
Your problem is the fact that you can't distinguish between a hoax and something that is true. Even though the evidence is right under your nose.
Arthur Brain
Well-known member
Given the amount of prosecutions and corruption laid bare in Trump's administration then you'd have to be naive to dismiss the idea of Russian collusion. It wasn't just "mainstream" media that covered that either. Earlier on in his tenure, Trump was obliged to allude to it himself. That hasn't magically gone away Jerry. The notion that it was Hilary who colluded is bonkers. What did she have to gain from it? The loss of an election? Oh, and I'm no fan of Clinton by a long shot.
People are noticing. Trump fell in the polls again yesterday. He'd now down by double digits in the RCP average of polls.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/e...us/general_election_trump_vs_biden-6247.html#!
And yes, the economy is one reason. McConnell seems to have written off Trump,and is now acting to maximize his own power, by sabotaging the economy.
The GOP Is Sabotaging Trump’s Economy a Month Before Election Day. Here’s Why.
Which looks bizarre, on first glance. McConnell’s majority is living on a knife’s edge: In recent days, FiveThirtyEight declared Democrats the two-to-one favorites to control the Senate next year. The GOP still has a solid shot of retaining the chamber, but doing so will require most of its embattled incumbents (in South Carolina, North Carolina, Maine, Iowa, Colorado, and Arizona) to keep their seats. And many of those incumbents were eager to vote for a stimulus package that could shore up their bipartisan bona fides. McConnell may not value his constituents’ well-being or the health of our democracy. But he does seem to value his own power. So with his president and his majority on life support, why would he walk away from a chance to get $1,200 checks mailed to most Americans by Election Day?
...
And that’s key to McConnell’s calculus. Even without passing a stimulus, he still has a decent shot at a 51-vote majority. The races in North Carolina, Maine, and Iowa are all close. And the Democratic candidate in the Tarheel State is mired in an adultery scandal. What’s more, even if McConnell loses his majority, Democrats’ odds of holding more than 52 seats next January are quite low. Assuming a Biden victory, the GOP would have an excellent chance of winning back Senate control in 2022, as the opposition party almost always enjoys a major turnout advantage in midterm elections. By walking away from the stimulus, McConnell is prioritizing conservative ideology over personal power. But the political cost of doing this is relatively low.
...
In a two-party system, voters who identify strongly with conservative positions on cultural issues have only one partisan option. Combine this fact with the heavy overrepresentation of such voters, and you end up with a Senate GOP that can sabotage the economy a month before Election Day and still retain a shot at retaining power. That is a problem for the Democratic Party. But it’s also a problem for the American polity — one that will cost many Americans their businesses, jobs, homes, and lives in the weeks to come.
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/202...a-stimulus-one-month-before-election-day.html
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/e...us/general_election_trump_vs_biden-6247.html#!
And yes, the economy is one reason. McConnell seems to have written off Trump,and is now acting to maximize his own power, by sabotaging the economy.
The GOP Is Sabotaging Trump’s Economy a Month Before Election Day. Here’s Why.
Which looks bizarre, on first glance. McConnell’s majority is living on a knife’s edge: In recent days, FiveThirtyEight declared Democrats the two-to-one favorites to control the Senate next year. The GOP still has a solid shot of retaining the chamber, but doing so will require most of its embattled incumbents (in South Carolina, North Carolina, Maine, Iowa, Colorado, and Arizona) to keep their seats. And many of those incumbents were eager to vote for a stimulus package that could shore up their bipartisan bona fides. McConnell may not value his constituents’ well-being or the health of our democracy. But he does seem to value his own power. So with his president and his majority on life support, why would he walk away from a chance to get $1,200 checks mailed to most Americans by Election Day?
...
And that’s key to McConnell’s calculus. Even without passing a stimulus, he still has a decent shot at a 51-vote majority. The races in North Carolina, Maine, and Iowa are all close. And the Democratic candidate in the Tarheel State is mired in an adultery scandal. What’s more, even if McConnell loses his majority, Democrats’ odds of holding more than 52 seats next January are quite low. Assuming a Biden victory, the GOP would have an excellent chance of winning back Senate control in 2022, as the opposition party almost always enjoys a major turnout advantage in midterm elections. By walking away from the stimulus, McConnell is prioritizing conservative ideology over personal power. But the political cost of doing this is relatively low.
...
In a two-party system, voters who identify strongly with conservative positions on cultural issues have only one partisan option. Combine this fact with the heavy overrepresentation of such voters, and you end up with a Senate GOP that can sabotage the economy a month before Election Day and still retain a shot at retaining power. That is a problem for the Democratic Party. But it’s also a problem for the American polity — one that will cost many Americans their businesses, jobs, homes, and lives in the weeks to come.
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/202...a-stimulus-one-month-before-election-day.html
Jerry Shugart
Well-known member
At this time Trump is ahead of where he was against Hillary in 2016.
How did that turn out for you?
ok doser
lifeguard at the cement pond
:darwinsm:
Jerry Shugart
Well-known member
What prosecutions and corruption?
You have been brainwashed by the mainstream press.
Here's a hint, Jerry; something demonstrably true, has evidence to support it. Your hoax has no such evidence. But I'm sure everyone would be happy to see what you've got in the way of a checkable source. What do you have?
That's a testable belief. (Barbarian checks)
Oct. 12 2016, Hillary was 6.2 up on Trump and losing lead daily. Today,l Biden is up by double digits and gaining lead daily. Someone lied to you, Jerry. Best do your own checking.
Trump squeaked out a narrow victory in several states that put him over the required number. The republican FBI director popped a surprise, saying he had a criminal investigation into Clinton that he later admitted turning up nothing unlawful.
Why do you think Trump went bonkers when he learned that Durham wasn't going to have any results until after the election? That was his last hope.
And over 9 million people have already voted, Jerry. I'll be one of them, tomorrow. This week, Ted Cruz said it might be a "bloodbath" for republicans up and down the ticket, because of Trump.
Jerry Shugart
Well-known member
We read the following which was written in October, 2016:
Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton now has an 11-percentage-point lead over her Republican opponent Donald Trump, according to a poll released by PRRI and the Atlantic on Tuesday.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/...p-clinton-lead
That is my source, where is yours?
That's a testable belief. (Barbarian checks)
Oct. 12 2016, Hillary was 6.2 up on Trump and losing lead daily. Today,l Biden is up by double digits and gaining lead daily. Someone lied to you, Jerry. Best do your own checking.
Clinton/Trump
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/e...s/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html 6.2 as of Oct 12
Biden/Trump
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/e...us/general_election_trump_vs_biden-6247.html#! 10.2 as of Oct. 12
Apples to apples. Someone lied to you, Jerry. Best do your own checking.
Oct. 12 2016, Hillary was 6.2 up on Trump and losing lead daily. Today,l Biden is up by double digits and gaining lead daily. Someone lied to you, Jerry. Best do your own checking.
Clinton/Trump
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/e...s/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html 6.2 as of Oct 12
Biden/Trump
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/e...us/general_election_trump_vs_biden-6247.html#! 10.2 as of Oct. 12
Apples to apples. Someone lied to you, Jerry. Best do your own checking.
Jerry Shugart
Well-known member
I quoted my source. Of course since you have Trump Derangement Syndrome you are unable to distinguish between fantasy and reality. Here is what my source said in October 2016:
Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton now has an 11-percentage-point lead over her Republican opponent Donald Trump, according to a poll released by PRRI and the Atlantic on Tuesday.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/...p-clinton-lead
Even though those facts are right there in back and white right before your eyes you say that someone lied to me and I need to do my own checking.
ok doser
lifeguard at the cement pond
don't feed the troll, Jerry
You still don't get it, Jerry. Ask someone who knows something about statistics. If you don't know anyone like that, let me know, and I'll explain it to you.
Jerry Shugart
Well-known member
If you know so much about the polls concerning the Presidental election why did you quote a nation-wide poll?
Anyone who knows anything about the Presidental elections know that nationwide polls are worthless. Only the polls from the swing states should be considered, and in 2016 the great majority of those polls were wrong.
Because the poll you cited was nationwide. Apples to apples, Jerry.
Turns out, they've been excellent predictors of winners. Would you like me to show you that?
Then it was probably a bad idea for you to cite a national poll.
Turns out, those data are still available, too. Want to see them?
In 2016, the last poll had Clinton up by 1.4 in Minnesota. Biden is currently about 9.
In 2016, the last poll had Clinton up by 1.9 in Pennsylvania. Biden is currently up by 7.1
In 2016 the last poll had Trump up by about 0.7 in Florida, Biden is currently by 3.7.
In 2016, the last poll had Trump up in Arizona by 4 points. Biden is currently up by 2.7
Jerry Shugart
Well-known member
Two of those state polls are within the margin of error. And there is still plenty of time for the race to tighten.
Then when the undecided get in the polling places they always vote their pocketbook and Trump wins there.
USC poll: Biden leads on everything but jobs and the economy
https://news.usc.edu/175960/usc-dayb...-favorability/
Then when the undecided get in the polling places they always vote their pocketbook and Trump wins there.
USC poll: Biden leads on everything but jobs and the economy
https://news.usc.edu/175960/usc-dayb...-favorability/