Millions more die by the virus in that scenario.
This just isn't true. Contrary to your assertion, in reality many more died of our collective reaction to the virus than the virus.
The only thing you got right was that a vaccine that worked would have taken so long to make it would not have been a factor by this time.
But you should learn to listen. The numbers are out there. Cuomo could have protected the old folks homes, but instead he infected them as thoroughly as he could to make the crisis as bad as he could. This pattern was followed by other governing officials and health officials didn't stop it. So not protecting the vulnerable made excess deaths higher than had we done nothing but the normal flu mitigation actions. Why do you think health officials are trying to help you?
But here is as even bigger crime. The excess deaths in people younger than 65, about a quarter of excess deaths, came from causes other than COVID. Do you realize what that means?
In 2021 we got the vaccines. Did excess deaths in people under 65 slow down? Initial numbers looks like they increased!
And beyond that, the spread of COVID in 2020 was as complete with no differences of note regardless of mitigation factors employed like masks, lockdowns or social distancing.
So, no, not only would there have been less deaths had we nothing beyond what we normally do, but the vaccines created an environment that made things worse in 2021.