Trump Makes His Way Back to the Lead in Poll

jgarden

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Trump Makes His Way Back to the Lead in Polls

As usual, our conservative "friends" present a piece of information out of context and then spend the rest of the thread arguing the point!

The OP is citing just one isolated poll, the USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times “Daybreak” Poll, but the nature of federal politics in America is such that the 2016 Election will be won or lost in 11 swing states.

- Colorado, Clinton 46% Trump 35% (based on 5 polls)
- Florida, Clinton 45.4% Trump 41% (based on 5 polls)
- Iowa, Clinton 41.4% Trump 40.4% (based on 5 polls)
- Michigan, Clinton 41.4% Trump 34.6% (based on 5 polls)
- Nevada, Clinton 44% Trump 42% (based on 5 polls)
- New Hampshire, Clinton 43.8% Trump 38% (based on 5 polls)
- North Carolina, Clinton 45.2% Trump 41.4% (based on 5 polls)
- Ohio, Clinton 44% Trump 40.8% (based on 5 polls)
- Pennsylvania, Clinton 48.8% Trump 38.8% (based on 5 polls)
- Virginia, Clinton 48.8% Trump 37.8% (based on 5 polls)
- Wisconsin, Clinton 45.2% Trump 38.8% (based on 5 polls)

Based on a number of recent polls, Clinton still leads in each of these states with a combined weighted average of 6.2% ahead of Trump.

Clinton is experiencing a difficult week and should have been lower in the polls, but Trump's inability to share the media spotlight with anyone has diverted much of the media attention away from her and focused it on his muddled repackaging of his immigration policy.

POLITICO's Battleground States Polling Average

11-state weighted average: Clinton: 45.3%; Trump: 39.1%

http://www.politico.com/2016-election/swing-states
 
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ok doser

lifeguard at the cement pond
trump's been shooting his mouth off and dominating the media coverage


meanwhile, the msm has been giving hillary a pass on crap that would have killed a republican candidate


when we get closer to november, she'll have to start doing more speeches, which will be her downfall

the media can't present trump any worse than they already have

but hillary will prove to be her own undoing when people hear that horrible screechy voice every day
 

Nick M

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Unless Hillary dies (which is possible) Trump is gonna lose in a landslide in the election.

It is hard for me to see that. The DNC can't win with out 3rd party conservative interference, or high enthusiasm for their candidate. She has neither. Which is why she is losing in California according to the LA Times, and they have one of many fake polls. What they do have on their side is all the illegal aliens voting, many times over. And rusha, Annabendetti, and others committing the same thing.
 

Nick M

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As of today.

The latest weekly Rasmussen Reports White House Watch national telephone and online survey shows Trump with 40% support to Clinton’s 39% among Likely U.S. Voters, after Clinton led 42% to 38% a week ago. Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson now earns seven percent (7%) of the vote, down from nine percent (9%) the previous two weeks, while Green Party candidate Jill Stein picks up three percent (3%) support. Three percent (3%) like some other candidate, and seven percent (7%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

Clinton's support has been trending down from a high of 44% in early August just after the Democratic National Convention.​
 

Catholic Crusader

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As of today.

The latest weekly Rasmussen Reports White House Watch national telephone and online survey shows Trump with 40% support to Clinton’s 39% among Likely U.S. Voters, after Clinton led 42% to 38% a week ago. Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson now earns seven percent (7%) of the vote, down from nine percent (9%) the previous two weeks, while Green Party candidate Jill Stein picks up three percent (3%) support. Three percent (3%) like some other candidate, and seven percent (7%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

Clinton's support has been trending down from a high of 44% in early August just after the Democratic National Convention.​

Good news.
 

Nick M

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One of the bigger polls that shows how people will vote is direction of the country. "Wrong direction" is at a massive +31%.

No matter what, Mrs Clinton gets 45%. Just like Jimmy Carter in 1980.
 

jgarden

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Trump Makes His Way Back to the Lead in Poll

Trump's speech on immigration just torpedoed any chances he might have had with Hispanic Americans and that segment of women who were looking for a more humane approach when dealing with illegals.

Unless Trump can discover yet another demographic group that will approve of his policies, his campaign has reached the limits of his appeal.
 

Catholic Crusader

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One of the bigger polls that shows how people will vote is direction of the country. "Wrong direction" is at a massive +31%.

No matter what, Mrs Clinton gets 45%. Just like Jimmy Carter in 1980.

I hope you are correct.

I'm hoping for Trump.
And I'm hoping he turns out to be a Reagan on steroids.

I know he will if he gets the chance.

.......Trump's speech on immigration just torpedoed any chances he might have had with Hispanic Americans......

If you are going to drink KoolAid, don't spit it back out here.
 
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Town Heretic

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As of Thursday, FiveThirtyEight has the chance of either candidate being elected president:

Clinton: 74.5 %

Trump: 25.5 %

Among the close races, Trump is ahead in Georgia, too close to really call in Iowa and North Carolina, and very much alive in Ohio, though Clinton holds a marginal lead in these states. Florida and Nevada are in play, but more solidly Clinton's. The three states with the greatest statistical chance of tipping the election are: Florida, now leaning Clinton by 3%; Pennsylvania, 4.7% edge to Clinton; and Ohio, with a slim 2.7% Clinton lead.

FiveThirtyEight break down:

Electoral votes

Hillary Clinton
321.8

Donald Trump
215.8

Gary Johnson 0.4

Popular vote

Hillary Clinton 48.1%

Donald Trump 43.1%




 

Town Heretic

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There have been no debates, and fools are already calling the election. That reeks of fear.
What's the title of the thread again? :plain:

And there was a time when Trump had a marginal statistical lead (July 30). The good news for Trump hopefuls is that he's cut her lead in half inside of two weeks. The bad news is it took, essentially, an absence by Clinton during that time coupled with a shift in Trump's rhetorical approach, a bit uneven but better on the whole for making inroads among undecided moderates with no real love for Clinton. The bad news is that neither of those two things is likely to continue and that even with a singular stage the lead remains a fairly strong one, as it breaks down. Trump needs to kill in the debates. And as sigh worthy as Clinton can be extemporaneously, she's demonstrated an ability to play a strong enough hand when well prepared.
 

Tambora

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You can find fault in anyone, so trying to find a perfect president is naive.

When Trump gave his convention speech, I loved about everything he said.
Made me feel proud to be an American again.

While he may not be the absolute best in the country for the job, I think he's way up the list.
I hope he wins.
 

Nathon Detroit

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You can find fault in anyone, so trying to find a perfect president is naive.

When Trump gave his convention speech, I loved about everything he said.
Made me feel proud to be an American again.

While he may not be the absolute best in the country for the job, I think he's way up the list.
I hope he wins.
Wow, really?

Personally, I can't imagine a worse Republican nominee.
 
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