That's the thing, it doesn't have to be most of the time. I ran the numbers with you already. Every possible mutation WILL happen with a few generations (5 or so) in a reasonably sized population (1000+). It's like winning the lottery, for an individual it seems impossible, but everyone knows that there will be a winner, and often multiple winners within a population. And the amazing thing about evolution is those winners can reproduce and their offspring can win again later. So yes it is a mechanism I can rely on.
Hundreds of millions of years isn't *tiny* by anyone's measure. And if you were right, even microevolution would never happen. Every organism would have most of its offspring die from horrid mutations. Except that isn't at all what we observe. We humans can make massive changes in form over extremely short periods of time.
There is more variation in skull shape in the domestic dog than there is in the entire *order* Carnivora. Then you're going to stand here and tell me evolution is impossible? Your numbers game is so divorced from reality it's ridiculous.
No, they won't outproduce unless there's a selective DISadvantage to the mutation. Otherwise, why do we have so many different hair colors and eye colors in humans? Shouldn't the first human with blue eyes get swamped out by everyone else?