Really?
What is the expected recurrence of six in four years given historical rates of hurricanes?
toldailytopic:Girl with mental illnesses is now the face of the Global Warming hoax
- Thread starter genuineoriginal
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What is the expected recurrence of six in four years given historical rates of hurricanes?
In 2005, there were four. Which had everyone concerned.
From 2003 to 2007 there were eight. Nothing like that before this millenium, though.
The trend, as you indicate, is strongly upward for severe storms, although there is very little increase in the number of storms.
But you just insist that this lies way outside what would be expected without doing a few simple sums.
We know why.
ok doser
lifeguard at the cement pond
genuineoriginal
New member
How long have we had satellites that could take pictures of hurricanes at sea?
Unless you have satellite imagery for all the hurricanes in the Atlantic for the previous 2 millennium (1 AD to 2000 AD), then you have nothing to base your statement on.
No they aren't. But they tend to have difficulty processing the emotional responses of others.
AS was first described in 1944 by Austrian physician Hans Asperger. He considered it to be a personality disorder characterized by pedantic speech content, impairment of two-way interactions, excellent logical abstract thinking, isolated areas of interest, repetitive and stereotyped play, and ignorance of environmental demands. AS individuals were thought to be capable of originality and creativity in selective fields (Tsai, 1992). Asperger (1979) suggested that his syndrome was more likely to be observed in children of high intelligence and special abilities.
...
There seem to be at least seven characteristics that are common to both gifted children and children with Aspberger's syndrome. Those are: verbal fluency, a fascination for letters or numbers and/or memorizing information, an intensive interest in a specialized topic, hypersensitivity to sensory stimuli, a large range of abilities due to their specialized interest(s), and uneven social or affective development.
https://psychology.stackexchange.co...pergers-syndrome-seem-to-overlap-with-high-iq
Of course, it's not a mental illness, any more than color blindness is a mental illness. These people are quite bright in most cases, relentlessly logical, and don't really get people who aren't.
I knew a Lt. in the AF who had the syndrome. He was remarkably good at scheduling resources, and he found a home in the maintenance functions of the 2nd AF. His uniform often looked like he slept in it, and frequently that was the case; he would often overnight in the hanger, overseeing things. The commander of 2AF told everyone to leave him alone, and to keep him out of sight when there were important visitors.
He had some allergy issues that kept him coming into my clinic on a regular basis, so we got to know each other. He had a wicked sense of humor, which he generally kept hidden. He had learned that a lot of people didn't like it.
I always wondered what happened to him.
The early 1800s. British Navy was keeping data on those. Every ship kept detailed records on weather, and there were a lot of vessels out there, recording. The North Atlantic, for reasons that should be obvious, was particularly well-documented. Later, we were using aircraft to keep track. And much later, satellites, beginning about 1960. So the recent increase in the number of severe storms has been well-documented.
Pretty crude back then, but it's not hard to miss a major hurricane:
Nimbus shot of Hurricane Gladys, 1964
Since 1960.
Regarding the high number of category 5 storms recently:
From 2003 to 2007 there were eight. Nothing like that before this millenium, though.
This millennium is the 21st century. So that would be the past 19 years. And as you see, we had satellite images of ocean storms for forty years previous to that. And a few hundred years of ocean observation by naval vessels (records are still available).
"When I was young, everybody knew about how hot and dry the 1930s were, but that information has been lost among the current generation."
~Tony Heller at 0.13
Ironically, the anomalously hot weather in North America in the 1930s was also man-made. It just wasn't a world-wide phenomenon.
You see, the opening of the federal lands in the west, along with unusually wet weather after WWI, led to extensive farming on land where such farming was not sustainable without extensive irrigation.
So when the weather returned to normal, the land dried up. Without the grass to hold it, it turned to dust and blew away. Took over a generation to go back to normal.
But now, it's more than just a regional disaster. The climate of the world is changing due to dumping carbon dioxide into the atmosphere.
Those who forget history... well, you know.
Extensive farming combined with severe drought caused the Dust Bowl in the 1930s. Deep plowing on the Great Plains killed the natural grasses that kept soil in place, and the topsoil turned to dust and blew away. Tons of soil were blown off barren fields and carried in storm clouds for hundreds of miles, creating one of the most disastrous ecological events in U.S. history.
Between 1930 and 1940, severe dust storms, or “black blizzards,” reached heights of 10,000 feet, blowing cars off the road and blocking out sunlight. At times, the clouds blackened the sky all the way to New York City, and much of the topsoil was deposited in the Atlantic Ocean. An estimated 2.5 million people were displaced and millions of acres of farmland became useless, intensifying the economic impact of the Great Depression.
https://www.mnn.com/earth-matters/w...0-worst-man-made-environmental-disasters/dust
Denial is strong in the foolish. You might even call it a sort of "mental illness."
~Tony Heller at 0.13
Ironically, the anomalously hot weather in North America in the 1930s was also man-made. It just wasn't a world-wide phenomenon.
You see, the opening of the federal lands in the west, along with unusually wet weather after WWI, led to extensive farming on land where such farming was not sustainable without extensive irrigation.
So when the weather returned to normal, the land dried up. Without the grass to hold it, it turned to dust and blew away. Took over a generation to go back to normal.
But now, it's more than just a regional disaster. The climate of the world is changing due to dumping carbon dioxide into the atmosphere.
Those who forget history... well, you know.
Extensive farming combined with severe drought caused the Dust Bowl in the 1930s. Deep plowing on the Great Plains killed the natural grasses that kept soil in place, and the topsoil turned to dust and blew away. Tons of soil were blown off barren fields and carried in storm clouds for hundreds of miles, creating one of the most disastrous ecological events in U.S. history.
Between 1930 and 1940, severe dust storms, or “black blizzards,” reached heights of 10,000 feet, blowing cars off the road and blocking out sunlight. At times, the clouds blackened the sky all the way to New York City, and much of the topsoil was deposited in the Atlantic Ocean. An estimated 2.5 million people were displaced and millions of acres of farmland became useless, intensifying the economic impact of the Great Depression.
https://www.mnn.com/earth-matters/w...0-worst-man-made-environmental-disasters/dust
Denial is strong in the foolish. You might even call it a sort of "mental illness."
Precisely. Most deniers have heard that before, but they block it out as much as possible.
genuineoriginal
New member
It would be impossible to find any records of category 5 hurricanes before 1970, when the category system was developed.
| Why Are Hurricanes Classified by Category? Robert Simpson ... become a meteorologist anddirector of theNational Hurricane Center from 1967 to 1973. However, today he’s best known for developing the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale that we still use to designate a storm as a Category one through five. Developed in the early 1970s, this widely used scale measures hurricane wind speed. A Category one starts out with a wind speed of 74 to 95 miles per hour. A category two ranges from 96 to 110 miles per hour; category three storms have winds at 111 to 129 miles per hour; category four extends from 130 to 156 miles per hour. Anything above 157 miles per hour is a Category five storm. |
So at best there are 50 years of data and in that time there have been 22 category 5s in the Atlantic.
The Darwinists think that 6 in 4 years is an unexpected result. Let's see them show that with a percentage. :up:
What percentage of trials will have a 6-in-4-years sequence in a random allocation of cat. 5s in 50-years?
Or for Barbarian's version, 8 in 5.
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ok doser
lifeguard at the cement pond
so technically, there were never any category five storms before 1970?
:think:
AHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!
manbearpig!
Would have been, if we didn't keep records of wind speed of hurricanes. So it's easy to apply the scale to hurricanes that were observed before the scale was implemented.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Category_5_Atlantic_hurricanes
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ok doser
lifeguard at the cement pond
and how far back do those estimated datum go?
centuries?
millenia?
less than a century?
kiwimacahau
Well-known member
Those of us who live in low-lying island nations are quite aware of the effects of AGW.
ok doser
lifeguard at the cement pond
genuineoriginal
New member
You are now claiming that the technology used for measuring wind speed in 1933 and 1934 (both years had 2 category 5 hurricanes) is the same technology used to measure wind speed in our current decade?
genuineoriginal
New member
So you know that there is no effect caused by man that is not already explained by natural causes?
You also know how to create dikes (the dam kind, not the damned kind) and use windmills to keep dry land available?
| Functions of windmills in Holland Historically, windmills in Holland served many purposes. The most important probably was pumping water out of the lowlands and back into the rivers beyond the dikes so that the land could be farmed. In the fourteenth century, hollow-post mills were used to drive scoop wheels to drain the wetlands. There are over 1000 windmills in Holland. Some are still being used for drainage, such as one or two of the nineteen in Kinderdijk. The Molen de Otter, still in operation in Amsterdam, is also used for drainage. |
The solution to any manmade or natural rise of sea level (really sinking of land masses, but whatever) will be made using technology, not ruining economies by banning fossil fuels.