toldailytopic: Are the fires and unusual heat in Colorado some kind of judgement, a p

[Alate_One]

I acknowledge that the LIA was not as severe in its impact in the southern hemisphere as it was in the northern hemisphere, but that does not stop the phenomena known as the LIA from being a period of time globally that was colder than any other time in the holocene since the younger dryas which began the period. The coldest periods may have been staggered over slightly different times and over different locations but taken as an average, there is no other period in the holocene that can compare to it. It has only been roughly 300 years since the LIA and it is insignificant that there should be a warming period since then. If the 10,000 years prior to the LIA were warmer on average than the twentieth century, why is the warming of the twentieth century anything to be alarmed about? Do we know the causes of the interglacial periods? What caused the increase in temperature from the coldest of the younger dryas period to the peak in temperature at the holocene optimum? Can we predict what the rate of temperature increase would be for the last 300 years based on those ancient causes, assuming preindustrial carbon dioxide levels?

Thing is, it's now warmer than baseline average than the little ice age was cold (and is more global in extent). So, I'm not entirely seeing your point.

If not, on what basis can we claim to know what percentage of the temperature increase of the last 300 years was due to increased carbon dioxide levels?

A lot. (really we're only talking about the last 150 yrs)

I think you'd do well watching BBC's meltdown. You probably know a lot of it so I'll link the most relevant bit. If you're interested the other parts are linked.

Meltdown

Mind you this is from 2006, and temperatures have continued to go up. The gist is we know many of the factors that affect earth's climate and we can model it fairly well. Scientists create models and do "hindcasting" to test them. That is they try to "predict" past data based on known inputs to the climate system. If the model matches observations well, we can say it is a good model. Scientists made models using natural forces to predict climate, and they do a great job until the mid 1900s. The only thing that can explain the warming we're seeing now is the CO2 increase, because the computer model using only natural factors utterly fails to predict our observations.

If you want to do some reading instead try here.

 

[eameece]

The TheologyOnline.com TOPIC OF THE DAY for June 29th, 2012 10:00 AM

toldailytopic: Are the fires and unusual heat in Colorado some kind of judgement, a part of global warming, or just an unfortunate circumstance?

By itself no, but taken with all the other unusual disasters, then of course it is. The wonder is that people here in America are not willing to do what's needed to reverse the situation.

 

[voltaire]

Thing is, it's now warmer than baseline average than the little ice age was cold (and is more global in extent). So, I'm not entirely seeing your point.

The point is that prior to the LIA, the average temperature was not much different than the average temperature of the last 150 years. That means that for 9,400 years of the holocene, the average temperature was not much different than the last 150 years, so the panic and alarmism is quite puzzling.

A lot. (really we're only talking about the last 150 yrs)

Do we know the causes of the interglacial periods? What caused the increase in temperature from the coldest of the younger dryas period to the peak in temperature at the holocene optimum? Can we predict what the rate of temperature increase would be for the last 300 years based on those ancient causes, assuming preindustrial carbon dioxide levels?

You simply answered " a lot". Can you answer any of the above questions?

If not, on what basis can we claim to know what percentage of the temperature increase of the last 300 years was due to increased carbon dioxide levels?

How much lower should the global temperature be today than it is if carbon dioxide levels had stayed level since the LIA? Once I have the answer, why is that answer correct?

 

[voltaire]

In fact, the weakening of the Gulf stream was no doubt responsible for the colder climate in Europe.

Variations must take place in the ocean circulation when the general wind circulation varies. There are hints even within recent years that the variations in the ocean between Iceland and Scotland and Norway can be big: The area has been regarded as the main path of the warm, saline North Atlantic Drift water heading towards the Arctic; but, when the polar water occasionally intrudes from the north, sea-surface temperature is liable to fall by 3 to 5°C and presumably by more than this when, as in 1888, the ice advanced to near the Faeroe Islands. The long series of sea-surface temperature observations at that point, starting in 1867, and earlier observations covering the area in 1789, are studied. Various kinds of proxy data—notably the CLIMAP Atlantic ocean-bed core analysis results for the last IceAge climax and cod fishery and sea-ice reports from the LittleIceAge in the 17th century ad—are then used to indicate the variability in this part of the ocean on longer time scales. The reconstruction of the situation between ad 1675 and 1705 resulting from this study suggests a probable mean departure of the sea surface temperature from modern values between the Faeroes and southeast Iceland amounting to about −5°C; and at the climax in 1695 the polar water seems to have spread all around Iceland, across the entire surface of the Norwegian Sea to Norway, and south to near Shetland. Support for this diagnosis is found in a considerable variety of reports of environmental conditions existing at the time in Scotland, south Norway and elsewhere. The enhanced thermal gradient between approximately latitudes 55 and 65°N during the LittleIceAge, which this result indicates, offers an explanation for the occurrence in that period of a number of windstorms which changed the coasts in various places and seem to have surpassed in intensity the worst experienced in the region in more recent times.
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/003358947990067X


No magic "cycles"; just a local event, which explains why it wasn't much outside of Europe.

Nobody said anything about magic. The fact that the gulf stream was 10 percent weaker during the LIA is strong evidence that the LIA was global in nature and not local.

 

[The Barbarian]

Nobody said anything about magic. The fact that the gulf stream was 10 percent weaker during the LIA is strong evidence that the LIA was global in nature and not local.

Don't see how. A local fluctuation in the Gulf stream affected mostly Europe. Other changes mentioned don't line up on the same time as the "little ice age."

Ironically, a global warming could repeat this; melting of Greenland's glaciers, if it continues, could send a mass of fresh water down between Greenland and the rest of North America, disrupting the Gulf stream and thereby cooling Europe.

But that doesn't seem to have been the case last time. I'll be open to your evidence to the contrary, of course.

 

[Alate_One]

The point is that prior to the LIA, the average temperature was not much different than the average temperature of the last 150 years. That means that for 9,400 years of the holocene, the average temperature was not much different than the last 150 years, so the panic and alarmism is quite puzzling.

The problem with averaging the last 150 years is temperature during this time hasn't been stable, not even bouncing around a bit but going up almost relentlessly. Our most recent temperatures are a very strong departure from anything previously in the holocene. (+1 degree deviation)

Read more here.

You simply answered " a lot". Can you answer any of the above questions?

Did you watch/read any of the resources I linked? There's a ton of data.

How much lower should the global temperature be today than it is if carbon dioxide levels had stayed level since the LIA? Once I have the answer, why is that answer correct?

Look at the climate models without CO2 input. We had a cooling trend in the natural variation.

 

[missrustyb]

global what?

global what?

First of all i believe global warming is a sham. could the heat be from the chemicals that have been blasted out of the planes as they are here? i know we had a very unusual winter here if you can call it that...
one day it was hot the next cold and back and forth.
As long as we continue as a nation to pull away from God(YHVH) and become more and more like Sodom and Gamorah ,YHVH will do what ever it takes to see that no man is lost to Him. He does not waste a breath, movement, or word...therefore, as with Joseph's being sold into slavery seeming so wrong and even of his own doing by rubbing what YHVH was showing him in his brothers face and his father increasing the "flaunt" by giving him a coat of many colors to show his favoritism..., what is one to think.
it's not until we get to the rest of the story (YHVH's inside plan) that we begin to see His purpose and how He turned all the pain and sorrow into such great joy only to change to a Pharoh who knew not Joseph (like YHVH didn't plan it that way before the foundations of the earth.)
Yes, i believe everything is ordained by YHVH, even sin and death for how else could He K:show off His great glory, might, majesty and power?K:!
Our safety supervisor recently passed away and it's hit our school bus yard really hard, one because she knew us and there was a trust there...she was young and her passing makes no sence and yet i know YHVH has a purpose that is beyond our limited thinking. Does it fit into His plans for my boss that i've been praying for? Were we to comfortable or does He have a greater plan, like we all have a time and it's just her's? Hey, i'm not boohooing here so please don't take this there. I'm simply saying that we all have things in our world around us that don't make any sence yet YHVH IS in charge and command of all things and each and every breath we take is ordered by Him or with held. Again, i don't believe in global warming...i believe in one and only one Almighty YHVH and His one and only son Jesus (Yeshua). thanks for letting me share and i hope i haven't broken any rules, if i've stepped on your toes let me know and we'll talk about it...:up: thanks again and good night.

 

[The Barbarian]

First of all i believe global warming is a sham.

I know people who believe the moon landing was faked, that bigfoot is loose in the woods, and that Obama was born in Kenya. Never underestimate the ability of people to believe weird things.

could the heat be from the chemicals that have been blasted out of the planes as they are here?

Oh, yeah, I forgot the "chemtrails" believers.

i know we had a very unusual winter here if you can call it that...one day it was hot the next cold and back and forth.

I live in Texas. Sounds like a normal winter to me.

As long as we continue as a nation to pull away from God(YHVH) and become more and more like Sodom and Gamorah ,YHVH will do what ever it takes to see that no man is lost to Him. He does not waste a breath, movement, or word...therefore, as with Joseph's being sold into slavery seeming so wrong and even of his own doing by rubbing what YHVH was showing him in his brothers face and his father increasing the "flaunt" by giving him a coat of many colors to show his favoritism..., what is one to think.
it's not until we get to the rest of the story (YHVH's inside plan) that we begin to see His purpose and how He turned all the pain and sorrow into such great joy only to change to a Pharoh who knew not Joseph (like YHVH didn't plan it that way before the foundations of the earth.)
Yes, i believe everything is ordained by YHVH, even sin and death for how else could He show off His great glory, might, majesty and power?!

So if we all wore drab coats, the warming will stop?

Our safety supervisor recently passed away and it's hit our school bus yard really hard, one because she knew us and there was a trust there...she was young and her passing makes no sence and yet i know YHVH has a purpose that is beyond our limited thinking.

I am sorry to hear that. Who knows what God has in mind for us? It is comforting to know that He is surely in control of all things as we need Him to be.

 

[voltaire]

hide the decline

Bump for AlateOne and The Barbarian

 

[voltaire]

bump

 

[The Barbarian]

Actually, most of God's judgements are the direct result of man's stupidity and greed. So our poor stewardship of the Earth ends up hurting us.

Some things never change.


And the actual data on global warming can be found here:
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v3/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt

(Voltair suggests the scholarly sources at You Tube)

I find the data more convincing. Pretty animation, though. I just read that most people are now getting their news from You Tube. So now we've got millions of people learning that Bush and Bigfoot planned 9/11 and that Obama was born on Venus or whatever.

Great.

One thing to consider; the hardiness zones for planting have been steadily moving north for many years, and the blooming of plants at different latitudes are coming sooner and sooner each year.

Gardening Map Of Warming U.S. Has Plant Zones Moving North
http://www.npr.org/blogs/thesalt/20...p-of-warming-u-s-has-plant-zones-moving-north

If it is assumed that growth and reproduction are controlled by temperature, a rapid advance of the tree line would be predicted. Indeed, some authors have provided photographic evidence and remotely sensed data that suggest this is, in fact, occurring. In regions inhabited by grazing animals, the advance of the tree line will be curtailed, although growth of trees below the tree line will of course increase substantially.
http://aob.oxfordjournals.org/content/90/4/537.full

Gol-durn liberal socialist petunias!