NFL 2018 Season Starts Tonight

Idolater

"Matthew 16:18-19" Dispensationalist (Catholic) χρ
But then again, only the Patriots, Chiefs, Rams, and Saints fans aren't at present.

And, in general, only Pats fans have largely not had to for a while now.
Young people here have zero memory of noncompetitive Patriots teams. It's a crazy generational change. And having lived through terrible seasons, every single game that they win for all of us older folks is our cup running over.
 

Town Heretic

Out of Order
Hall of Fame
Young people here have zero memory of noncompetitive Patriots teams. It's a crazy generational change. And having lived through terrible seasons, every single game that they win for all of us older folks is our cup running over.
I'm genuinely happy for Pats fans today. I watched the worst New England team in their run do something they haven't done all year. You have to tip your hat to that. Have to. 94 offensive plays and only one that didn't end with positive yardage.

It wasn't that anyone caught fire. Brady threw 1 td to 2 ints for a 77 rating and a performance that evidenced struggle, until the game was right there in front of him. One drive to end it. Money. Holy cow. That's just special...now the Rams. The cycle. Is it the new kid on the block or can they rally the bones again? I can't wait to find out.
 

tetelestai

LIFETIME MEMBER
LIFETIME MEMBER
Young people here have zero memory of noncompetitive Patriots teams.

I remember the 1976 Patriots like it was yesterday. They were by no means "noncompetitive".

They beat the Steelers & Raiders that year (the Raiders only loss of the season), and should have beaten the Raiders again in the playoffs.

As a Steeler fan, we were all rooting for the Patriots in that playoff game, because had they won, the AFC Championship would have been in Pittsburgh, but ended up being in Oakland, where the Raiders beat the Steelers, then went on to win the Super Bowl.

Other than the Brady/Belichick Patriots, that 1976 Patriots team was probably the best in Patriots history.
 

tetelestai

LIFETIME MEMBER
LIFETIME MEMBER
The Saints were robbed of a trip to the Super Bowl by the worse non-call in the history of the play-off!

I still think "The Tuck" rule game was the worst call (non-call) in playoff history.

Honorable Mention: The Dez Bryant catch
 
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The Berean

Well-known member
It's impressive, but it doesn't have bearing on the point of how he played the position, let alone played it in the biggest game, where he came up short a few times, even when leading historical offenses (including a run with his own Jerry Rice). He's a great one, and a Jabbar when it comes to longevity, but Joe is still the big game gold standard.

I wish he'd had a chance to play within the more modern rules. Or Marino...maybe especially Dan, given his game.
Can you imagine Dan Marino with Mark Duper and Mark Clayton using the modern NFL passing rules?!!! Seven thousand yard passing season?!
 

Idolater

"Matthew 16:18-19" Dispensationalist (Catholic) χρ
I'm genuinely happy for Pats fans today. I watched the worst New England team in their run do something they haven't done all year. You have to tip your hat to that. Have to. 94 offensive plays and only one that didn't end with positive yardage.

It wasn't that anyone caught fire. Brady threw 1 td to 2 ints for a 77 rating and a performance that evidenced struggle, until the game was right there in front of him. One drive to end it. Money. Holy cow. That's just special...
That's what we Pats fans have been seeing---off and on---since 2001. It's a marked difference from anything that Bledsoe and other QBs have done for us, especially over this prolonged time period. We never had anything like a Tom Brady before, and for many of us it was like a lightswitch. That "One drive to end it. Money," wasn't a thing we were familiar with until Brady, and it's also why you'll have difficulty arguing from statistics alone that someone was greater in their career than him, though I don't begrudge you your view either.
now the Rams. The cycle. Is it the new kid on the block or can they rally the bones again? I can't wait to find out.
Aside from misspelling McVay, which already belies my unfamiliarity with that team, I still hold to my thoughts that their defensive front is fearsome, and that NE's O-line is going to have to be equal to or even better if possible against LAR, than even against LAC or the Chiefs, and Brady is going to have to continue to run plays where he releases the pass in a few seconds, in order to succeed.

I also wonder about what McVay has up his sleeve for this game wrt an offensive gameplan. Every coach probably has ideas kicking around about what they'd do if they ever do get to the SB, and McVay's a proven offensive genius-ish already, so I do fear what looks they'll give the Pats defense in this game. I expect them to start the game with unfamiliar looks, and then to have adjustments mid-game to other unfamiliar looks, with very little run from this and last seasons' regular seasons and post-season games. I think McVay will give Belichick's admitted defensive genius a real run for his money, perhaps the greatest run that he's ever seen.

I don't know that I'm not hyping McVay's talents a little bit. Maybe he's not worth it. I do think that these two teams favor LAR in terms of strict talent (i.e. on paper), so the game will be decided by some combination of that talent disparity, by overall team discipline, and by how the competing coaching strategies come to clash with each other on the field. I think that bettors have already spoken that if NE is given any points, that they will just bet NE to win straight up, which is why the line moved from favoring LAR to now favoring NE by a couple points.
 

Idolater

"Matthew 16:18-19" Dispensationalist (Catholic) χρ
I remember the 1976 Patriots like it was yesterday. They were by no means "noncompetitive".

They beat the Steelers & Raiders that year (the Raiders only loss of the season), and should have beaten the Raiders again in the playoffs.

As a Steeler fan, we were all rooting for the Patriots in that playoff game, because had they won, the AFC Championship would have been in Pittsburgh, but ended up being in Oakland, where the Raiders beat the Steelers, then went on to win the Super Bowl.

Other than the Brady/Belichick Patriots, that 1976 Patriots team was probably the best in Patriots history.
I remember the 1985 team led by Eason and Berry, smoked by those Bears. And Parcels and Bledsoe losing out to Farve's Packers in the 90s. NE fans were 'hooha' fans then, we didn't even know what we were rooting for aside from a win, and now Brady and Belichick have shown us what it is that we should have been rooting for all along.

Of the 53 SBs played so far, including this next one, the Pats have represented the AFC in 11 of them. That's more than 20% of the SBs.
 

tetelestai

LIFETIME MEMBER
LIFETIME MEMBER
I remember the 1985 team led by Eason and Berry, smoked by those Bears.

To this day, I'll never understand how that Patriot team went to Miami, and beat Marino and the Dolphins in the AFC Championship Game.

It wasn't even a close game.

The Bears only loss that year was to Miami. Everyone so badly wanted the Super Bowl to be the Bears vs. Dolphins.

Instead, we got one of the worst Super Bowls ever.
 

Town Heretic

Out of Order
Hall of Fame
To this day, I'll never understand how that Patriot team went to Miami, and beat Marino and the Dolphins in the AFC Championship Game.

It wasn't even a close game.

The Bears only loss that year was to Miami. Everyone so badly wanted the Super Bowl to be the Bears vs. Dolphins.

Instead, we got one of the worst Super Bowls ever.
Isn't that the one where Fryer got cut by his wife the night before the game and had one of the wr's hands in stitches?
 

Town Heretic

Out of Order
Hall of Fame
That's what we Pats fans have been seeing---off and on---since 2001. It's a marked difference from anything that Bledsoe and other QBs have done for us, especially over this prolonged time period. We never had anything like a Tom Brady before, and for many of us it was like a lightswitch. That "One drive to end it. Money," wasn't a thing we were familiar with until Brady, and it's also why you'll have difficulty arguing from statistics alone that someone was greater in their career than him, though I don't begrudge you your view either.
I have to give half of Brady's luster to the system and his coach, which is why I recognize his greatness, but can't crown him as the GOAT. He'll never be that for me for a few reasons. The 11 win season Bill managed the year he wasn't playing. The two losses in SBs against the lesser Manning, and the memory of Montana. That said, there's just no denying he's the Jabbar of the NFL at this point.

Aside from misspelling McVay, which already belies my unfamiliarity with that team, I still hold to my thoughts that their defensive front is fearsome, and that NE's O-line is going to have to be equal to or even better if possible against LAR, than even against LAC or the Chiefs, and Brady is going to have to continue to run plays where he releases the pass in a few seconds, in order to succeed.
Your line looked stout enough against the pass rush of KC. The Rams do have the talent up front to apply more pressure though... Release and scheme will be the difference, I think. And I have more confidence in your guys on that count than I do in theirs.

I also wonder about what McVay has up his sleeve for this game wrt an offensive gameplan. Every coach probably has ideas kicking around about what they'd do if they ever do get to the SB, and McVay's a proven offensive genius-ish already, so I do fear what looks they'll give the Pats defense in this game. I expect them to start the game with unfamiliar looks, and then to have adjustments mid-game to other unfamiliar looks, with very little run from this and last seasons' regular seasons and post-season games. I think McVay will give Belichick's admitted defensive genius a real run for his money, perhaps the greatest run that he's ever seen.
That's what I'm looking forward to...but I KNOW Bill will bring a great plan. I'm only confident the other guy will. He took a qb no one was excited by and made him into an MVP candidate for much of the season. He had an off day with his go-to running back and replaced him effectively enough. That is, he adjusts well on the fly, which he'll have to if he wants to compete with Bill and that staff.

Haven't broken it down yet, but I'm conflicted. Before this year, outside of the first Rams game, I rooted steadily against you on general principle, but I think I'll be pulling for you this year. One for the aging guys out there. Keep the youngsters at bay for another one. Us against time. :eek:

I don't know that I'm not hyping McVay's talents a little bit. Maybe he's not worth it. I do think that these two teams favor LAR in terms of strict talent (i.e. on paper)
If you won and lost on paper you wouldn't have made the championship game. No, Brady looked less than impressive for most of four quarters. He looked like he has all season. Bill did the impossible and silenced the most potent offense in the league with brilliant defensive calls and note worthy effort by the players and kept it close. Then Brady became the lion in winter, rallied his and broke theirs.

It literally changed me and my mindset in a drive. I looked at my wife and said, "That's it. I'm beaten and on board." Watching a genuine underdog struggle, seeing them take the late charge of KC as the kid who will likely be king came to life and overcame that effort and gameplan with sheer ability, then witnessing the KC heart breaking drive, capped for me by Brady leaping onto a teammate like a kid...you can't love the game and not love that.

I've been noticing a more public private side to Brady of late. Showing us that at the end was a continuation of that more open door and I think he'd have been beloved beyond the confines of NE if he'd done that early, if he'd worn his heart on his sleeve instead of posing for GQ and showing the chip on his late drafted shoulder, if he'd postured less as a talented but aloof guy with the supermodel wife and the odd health care pitch. But better late than never.

I think that bettors have already spoken that if NE is given any points, that they will just bet NE to win straight up, which is why the line moved from favoring LAR to now favoring NE by a couple points.
The money that came in for the Pats definitely moved the line.
 

Idolater

"Matthew 16:18-19" Dispensationalist (Catholic) χρ
I have to give half of Brady's luster to the system and his coach, which is why I recognize his greatness, but can't crown him as the GOAT. He'll never be that for me for a few reasons. The 11 win season Bill managed the year he wasn't playing. The two losses in SBs against the lesser Manning, and the memory of Montana. That said, there's just no denying he's the Jabbar of the NFL at this point.
Picking your brain: You speak of Brady being a "system QB." Didn't Manning play in the same system while at Indy, and didn't he transplant his system when he went to Denver? What I mean is, didn't Manning play his whole career in pretty much the same system all throughout? And Brees has been playing in NO for idk how long, hasn't his system been more or less the same during his tenure there as well?
Your line looked stout enough against the pass rush of KC. The Rams do have the talent up front to apply more pressure though... Release and scheme will be the difference, I think. And I have more confidence in your guys on that count than I do in theirs.


That's what I'm looking forward to...but I KNOW Bill will bring a great plan. I'm only confident the other guy will.
Good point. But last year's SB is still fresh in my mind, and I knew that Belichick would bring a great plan then to Nick Foles's and Doug Pederson's offense for that game, and he failed, by many accounts, by sitting one Malcolm Butler. It may well have been the difference in the game, given all the uncharacteristic missed tackles in the secondary that game, many of which Butler was known to be better able to execute than his replacements. So hopefully no comparable repeat on that mark for this game.
He took a qb no one was excited by and made him into an MVP candidate for much of the season. He had an off day with his go-to running back and replaced him effectively enough. That is, he adjusts well on the fly, which he'll have to if he wants to compete with Bill and that staff.
Agreed on all counts.
Haven't broken it down yet, but I'm conflicted. Before this year, outside of the first Rams game, I rooted steadily against you on general principle, but I think I'll be pulling for you this year. One for the aging guys out there. Keep the youngsters at bay for another one. Us against time. :eek:


If you won and lost on paper you wouldn't have made the championship game. No, Brady looked less than impressive for most of four quarters. He looked like he has all season. Bill did the impossible and silenced the most potent offense in the league with brilliant defensive calls and note worthy effort by the players and kept it close.
He befuddled the Chiefs for much of the first half, but once they figured out how to address whatever NE was doing, they were like a freight train, and scored almost every drive.
Then Brady became the lion in winter, rallied his and broke theirs.
Brady taught the young Mahomes a valuable lesson. When he threw that interception in the endzone early in the game, that made it so that at the half it was 14-0 instead of 21-0, which is probably what it would have been, had they instead scored on that drive (they were on the 1 yard line if memory serves), and the game might have gotten out of hand. But in ensuring the win at the end of the game, Brady showed Mahomes how, just because you throw a pick in the endzone, doesn't mean that you have to lose the game. In their first meeting in week six this year, Mahomes himself threw an endzone pick, and this was a lesson for him that he can't blame that pick for the loss. He's got to, if he wants to be a champion, rise above even the problems that he himself causes. As a football fan, you hope that Mahomes learned that lesson well.
It literally changed me and my mindset in a drive. I looked at my wife and said, "That's it. I'm beaten and on board." Watching a genuine underdog struggle, seeing them take the late charge of KC as the kid who will likely be king came to life and overcame that effort and gameplan with sheer ability, then witnessing the KC heart breaking drive, capped for me by Brady leaping onto a teammate like a kid...you can't love the game and not love that.
That game affected more than just you on that mark. I'm hearing now even more sports writers refer to Brady as the greatest ever, due to the preponderance of evidence already under his belt, with this game's performance seemingly tipping many peoples' calculations.

But all that aside, I just want to see another SB victory, by hook or by crook. No pun intended.
I've been noticing a more public private side to Brady of late. Showing us that at the end was a continuation of that more open door and I think he'd have been beloved beyond the confines of NE if he'd done that early, if he'd worn his heart on his sleeve instead of posing for GQ and showing the chip on his late drafted shoulder, if he'd postured less as a talented but aloof guy with the supermodel wife and the odd health care pitch. But better late than never.
His performance on the field is the most important thing in all this, and that's borne out in his statistics, and in his W's. Could his public image be better outside of NE, and even in Boston? Sure. But I'm one fan who couldn't care less, so long as he delivers the goods on game day. He and Belichick taught me that.
The money that came in for the Pats definitely moved the line.
I hear it's up to three points now in the Pats' favor. I still am churning through the data, trying to arrive at a prediction for the game. I just don't have a good feel for that Rams team. When they lost to NO earlier in the season (bby 10 pts) I then thought that they still were up-and-comers and still had not truly arrived yet, but they proved me wrong in both their game against Dallas and this past weekend's game against NO in NO. That takes spunk, which I didn't see in them before. When they eked out that win against KC during the regular season, that didn't tell me as much about them as it seemed to have influenced others, because I thought that their defense must have some weaknesses, but now having watched KC in their two playoff games, and how truly explosive that offense was ... well that's why I'm still searching for something more before I put together an estimate for this SB.
 

Town Heretic

Out of Order
Hall of Fame
Picking your brain: You speak of Brady being a "system QB." Didn't Manning play in the same system while at Indy, and didn't he transplant his system when he went to Denver?
No, he played under a new system in Denver, though as he interacted with his coordinator and coaches they soon realized what everyone around Peyton already knew, he was one of the better offensive minds in the game. So they created a hybrid of sorts as it went along. Another thing that I love about Peyton is the way he elevated team play. The team he routinely led to double digit winning seasons won all of two games when he went down with his season ending injury. Contrast that with Tom, whose team won all but five of its games the year he went down.

That argues system over individual to me. Every backup that's had to go in for long for Tom has looked like an NFL starter, though so far none lived up to that appearance away from home. I think that's about Bill and what he does with whatever he has on hand. It's truly remarkable.

And Brees has been playing in NO for idk how long, hasn't his system been more or less the same during his tenure there as well?
Brees was great before his injury saw him moving to a team in New Orleans willing to take a risk on his recovery. When Brees was a Charger he had a year with a 100+ rating, and looked close to his form with the Saints, relative to being young at the position. Great years and even more promise there. Then he went to an even better offensive mind and really upped the ante.

Good point. But last year's SB is still fresh in my mind, and I knew that Belichick would bring a great plan then to Nick Foles's and Doug Pederson's offense for that game, and he failed, by many accounts, by sitting one Malcolm Butler. It may well have been the difference in the game, given all the uncharacteristic missed tackles in the secondary that game, many of which Butler was known to be better able to execute than his replacements. So hopefully no comparable repeat on that mark for this game.
All things being even, I trust Bill's calls. They're usually right on defense. So I'd be interested in picking his brain there. There was a reason to him that was compelling enough to justify it. I may not completely understand it, but I can't claim to have his mind on the point or familiarity with everyone involved.

Agreed on all counts. He befuddled the Chiefs for much of the first half, but once they figured out how to address whatever NE was doing, they were like a freight train, and scored almost every drive.
It was a brilliant gameplan, though we can also shake our head at Andy for deciding to defer and putting his rookie in a trailing posture at the outset. Horrible decision.

Brady taught the young Mahomes a valuable lesson...in ensuring the win at the end of the game, Brady showed Mahomes how, just because you throw a pick in the endzone, doesn't mean that you have to lose the game. In their first meeting in week six this year, Mahomes himself threw an endzone pick, and this was a lesson for him that he can't blame that pick for the loss. He's got to, if he wants to be a champion, rise above even the problems that he himself causes. As a football fan, you hope that Mahomes learned that lesson well.
I think he'll be fine. If he'd have gotten the coin toss it would have been the other way around, the way he was playing by then.

I think the lesson was the importance of never giving up. Keep doing your best, hope for a break, and take advantage of it. I think both qbs showed us they were capable of that. The Chiefs, with any sort of defensive help, might well be the next dominant team in the league.

That game affected more than just you on that mark. I'm hearing now even more sports writers refer to Brady as the greatest ever, due to the preponderance of evidence already under his belt, with this game's performance seemingly tipping many peoples' calculations.
I've heard little else from sportswriters on that point for years, though I think that narrative is wrong headed for any number of reasons I've set out prior. That said, it did break my resentment, in part fueled by that populist narrative (within their tribe) and partly as a result of mishandling PR by Brady and Bill, and the associated scandals. It took a lot to move me past that, but past it I am. He isn't the GOAT, but he's great. And Bill, as coaches go, I can only think of a few to consider in the same breath. To have that combination for as long as you have and to see it arrive just in time to take advantage of the rules shift...get up thankful in the morning. That's a plate full of riches.

I hear it's up to three points now in the Pats' favor. I still am churning through the data, trying to arrive at a prediction for the game. I just don't have a good feel for that Rams team. When they lost to NO earlier in the season (bby 10 pts) I then thought that they still were up-and-comers and still had not truly arrived yet, but they proved me wrong in both their game against Dallas and this past weekend's game against NO in NO. That takes spunk, which I didn't see in them before. When they eked out that win against KC during the regular season, that didn't tell me as much about them as it seemed to have influenced others, because I thought that their defense must have some weaknesses, but now having watched KC in their two playoff games, and how truly explosive that offense was ... well that's why I'm still searching for something more before I put together an estimate for this SB.
I'm going to crunch numbers this weekend. What your guys did the other day defied the law of averages. We'll see if they can manage that again. They'll have time to consider, and that is Bill's meat.
 

Town Heretic

Out of Order
Hall of Fame
So I'm looking at a couple of places that predict outcomes with decent results.

TR (teamranking) has a low confidence 2.5 in favor of New England and calls the likely score NE 29, Rams 27
Oddshark has it NE 25.1, Rams 25.6

Or, no one has any real idea who is going to win this game...

On averages I have it either NE 31, Rams 35, or NE 33, Rams 30

The more likely final favors the Rams, but I'm not going to lose any more playoff money (imaginary) going against the Pats.
 

Jerry Shugart

Well-known member
The more likely final favors the Rams, but I'm not going to lose any more playoff money (imaginary) going against the Pats.

Me neither. At this point only a fool would bet against Bill Bilicheater. In the age of free agency I just cannot even begin to imagine how the Pats have been so successful except through means which are not on the up and up. And there have been instances where Bill has been caught with his pants down concerning the ethics of the game. While watching the games, especially during the playoffs, I get the feeling that on every play he seems to know exactly what his opponents are going to do, especially on defense.

Maybe he and his coaches are just more expert on spotting "tells" which give away what his opponents are doing but on the other hand he may be using means which are not quite ethical. Due to his past history I tend to go with the second option.

Maybe I'm just jealous and don't like their success but I just can't escape the feeling that something about this is just not kosher!
 

The Berean

Well-known member
To this day, I'll never understand how that Patriot team went to Miami, and beat Marino and the Dolphins in the AFC Championship Game.

It wasn't even a close game.

The Bears only loss that year was to Miami. Everyone so badly wanted the Super Bowl to be the Bears vs. Dolphins.

Instead, we got one of the worst Super Bowls ever.
I still have fond memories of that Monday Night Football game. The Bears were 11-0 coming into the game. And Dan Marino lit up the Bears famed 46 defense. The Dolphins jumped out to a 31-10 lead and never looked back.

The Dolphin's shocking loss to the Patriots in the AFC title game was just bizarre. The Dolphins won both regular season meetings and the Patriots had lost 18 straight games at the Orange Bowl.
 

Town Heretic

Out of Order
Hall of Fame
Me neither. At this point only a fool would bet against Bill Bilicheater. In the age of free agency I just cannot even begin to imagine how the Pats have been so successful except through means which are not on the up and up.
Great coaching. It's that simple and why Brady could go down and New England win 11 games. Bill is that great and he puts together solid teams when Kraft isn't mixing in. Put a great qb with that solid team and the best coaching and adjustment in the league and you get this dynasty.

And there have been instances where Bill has been caught with his pants down concerning the ethics of the game. While watching the games, especially during the playoffs, I get the feeling that on every play he seems to know exactly what his opponents are going to do, especially on defense.
Mostly he's smarter and more experienced than the OCs he's facing. Now when he's missing enough pieces he'll lose, but it's like the old Bear Bryant bit, he can beat you with his and he can take yours and beat you with them.

Maybe he and his coaches are just more expert on spotting "tells" which give away what his opponents are doing but on the other hand he may be using means which are not quite ethical. Due to his past history I tend to go with the second option.
Nah. After that "gate" every coach in the league went out of their way to protect themselves against spying, though everyone tries to steal calls during a game and via replay.

Another thing about Bill's teams is that he'll change the way his team plays from game to game, to give himself the best matchups. That's not normal. It's a lot of extra work and requires smart, disciplined players. It's what he has always set a premium on.
 
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