Okay, it's opening week and the only thing anyone really knows for sure is that Tim Tebow won't be playing in it. That said, what's a week of football without a little prognostication? Last year, as I have for a number of years, I played ESPN's Pigskin Pickem, both against the line and straight up. I ranked 472 out of the pack, placing me in the 99.6%, which ain't hay, though it's still off my best year (pre-Jack, when I really crunched numbers) of 15th. I'm flying seat of pants this year given time, but I did it last year and it worked out fine.
Week One
1.
Pit @ NE: ready to exercise the ghosts of deflate-gate and spitting nails over the tarnishing coat ESPN just poured over their dynasty, the Pats come into this one a 3.5 favorite over the somewhat rebuilding Steelers.
Pick: I don't see any reason to run against the line. I'll take the Pats to cover and maybe then some.
2.
Ind @ Buf: Ryan is back on the sideline in a familiar position. I mean coaching without a proven qb under center and a talented defense to work with. Merge these two teams and you'd have the next several prohibitive SB favorites...anyway, in a typical hedging opening week the wise guys set Indy a 2.5 favorite.
Pick: it could be closer, but I'm going Luck to work his magic just because and I'm taking the Colts.
3.
GB @ Chi: How much will the Pack miss Nelson? A lot more than A.J. Hawk, but with Lacy pounding and Rodgers picking apart defenses that can't watch the line without singling Wrs it still looks to be a banner year for the Pack. Chic has brought instant credibility with the hiring of Fox after floundering under Trestlemania, but unless Cutler and that off again/off again offense find the on switch...the line is GB and 5.5
Pick: I'll take the Pack.
4.
Cle @ Jets: a game only their mothers could love. The line is Jets by 3.5 or first team to score six.
lain:
Pick: I say the half point is too much for New Jersey and the lowly Browns hang tough. But really, you could hang either team and who'd complain?
5.
KC @ Hou: brutal opener for the Chiefs who will pay for failing to pick up Tebow.
I don't know how good either team will be this year. Houston's Clowney should be healthy and could make this the most feared pass rushing team in the league, pushing Seattle off the top of the defensive hill. The offense? Who's running it again? KC has one of the league's best defenses and a solid, proven veteran under center. But last year he mostly proved he couldn't find his wrs in the end zone. The line is Houston by a meager 1.5 (which could very well end up as the actual score).
Pick: Okay, I'm not arguing.
6.
Sea @ SL: even brutiler...Seattle is still Seattle and SL has a few things to prove. They traded qbs for stability, improved a solid defensive unit and upgraded in some key spots, all of which should set them up nicely for the monumental butt kicking they're about to experience. The line is a sucker's invitational Seahawks by 3.5.
Pick: I'm not going to tug on Superman's cape just yet. I'll go with the overdog.
7.
Mia @ Was: I just spent more energy writing that than I can muster for this game. Fins are a scant 2.5 fav.
Pick: Sure.
8.
Car @ Jac: just when you thought it couldn't get any....zzzz.....the line is Carolina by...what, 4.5? Does that tell you how awful Jacksonville is?
Pick: I'm taking the Jags because, well, that's the only way I can maintain interest.
9.
Det @ SD: I just don't know what we're getting here. Detroits defense kept them in games their under performing offense didn't. Now the main reason for that is gone, meaning Rivers will likely have time to exploit a secondary that's mostly spent the past few doing crossowords. SD's secondary couldn't pick fruit from an apple tree, coming in nearly dead last in ints last season... A head scratcher that could be a blow out or a fg for either. SD is the more consistent of the two and has what could resemble a running game this year. The line is SD and 2.5
Pick: it's a toss up for me. I'll take the Chargers.
10.
NO @ Arz: two great qbs...Brees isn't ready for the scrap heap just yet despite the new emphasis on running in the Big Easy. He had one of the most accurate deep arms in the game last year. Carson P spent last year watching his defense nearly carry a headless team deep. The Saints have lost too many pieces with unproven replacements to think about a serious playoff run. Arizona looked like a team that might have beaten anyone with even a back up to play under center (they were on their 3rd stringer in the playoffs) and their secondary woes had more to do with that lack than anything else, keeping them on the field and wearing down the pass rush. The line has the Cardinals by 2.5
Pick: this easy is wearing a home jersey.
11.
Cin @ Oak: zzzzzzzzzz, what, the only highlight here will be with a marker. Dalton is on the road? Then who knows? He's getting a 3.5 line over an Oakland team that's getting appreciably better and zzzzzzzzzzzzzz...what? Seriously, an Oakland game is where narcoleptics go to feel wanted.
Pick: Cin.
12.
Bal @ Den: well, I'm wide awake now. Denver's offense hasn't looked this off since the last time they looked horrible in preseason then set every meaningful team record for offense, or, don't pay attention to preseason. That said, a new system and one that I think exposes Peyton to an increased chance of injury has to be concerning. It will also tax those old legs a bit more. Just saying. Even so...the defense should be noticably improved and if the lower scoring, more defense friendly offense actually gels Kubiak could be sending Peyton off the way Elway wants to see it. Oh, and Baltimore is a really good team too.
The line has Denver 4.5 favorites in the thin air.
Pick: I'm hoping the line is right.
13.
Ten @ TB: the only reason you're watching this is you live in Tampa Bay or you're hoping this becomes the next qb rivalry. The line is Bucs by 3.5.
Pick: I'll stand pat with that, but these teams are just awful.
14.
Gia @ Dal: Eli is set for a rebound year with his new favorite target, Beckham. Dallas is set for a lesson in messing with something that works. The run game did so much for the Cowboys that they had better hope that line was the reason why this year. Dallas was 28th in sacks and has lost some talent on defense. The line is Boys and 5.5 but this could be one of those games.
Pick: I'm taking the Giants to expose that secondary with no significant pressure and Eli free to pick his spots.
15.
Phi @ Atl: I'm not sold on addition by subtraction just yet and I think Atlanta's offense will look more like it should this year, BUT Philly can get after you with a rush and Atlanta couldn't rush a frat last year. To me that's the difference. The line is a curious Philly by a half point. If the once dirty birds can't get to Bradford it's going to get ugly. If they can and can keep their own qb upright they might score an upset.
Pick: I think the former is much more likely and I'll take the Eagles going away.
16.
Min @ SF: really doesn't make me miss my sat. company and the loss of a chance to watch this one. :nono: I will be curious to see how much improvement having AP hitting the line makes in Bridgewater, who was worth looking at without the assistance. SF has had more hits than Ted Williams in the off-season. The line is, somehow, SF by 2.5
Pick: I'll take the Vikes.
Let the games begin.