The biggest improvement in all football teams at all levels of football is between the first and second game.
Yeah. It usually takes me about six to eight games to zero in enough to feel really comfortable with my line picks. I'll hit and miss early then nail it down the stretch to come in, most years, in the upper 80s against the line.
Here are the games for the week with lines and my model predictions:
GB -5.5
@ Sea: I had Seattle by 17 so that was a win.
NO @ Atl -1.5: I can't figure the Falcons being a favorite with their line problems and an ongoing question mark at RB and on the defensive side of things. I like the Saints by 6 so I'll take those points.
Buf @ Chi -6.5: I'd have taken 7 so I'm in the Bears camp and taking the points. Cutler has a lot of weapons and the Bills offense is just what Chicago's defense should be able to handle.
Cin @ Bal -2.5: makes sense given the Bengals tendency to be great at home and shabby on the road, but I'm taking a leap of faith in what I have down as a pick'em game and taking Cin and the points.
Cle @ Pit -5.5: game one in the march to Johnny Football's era should see the Steelers easily cover.
Ten @ KC -6.5: I have the Chiefs covering and then some.
Oak @ Jet -4.5: so that's what it takes to see the Jests as a favorite...I have it five, but the question mark at QB could turn this one either way. I'll stay with New York and worry.
Min @ SL -6.5: with the Rams qb in back up mode that's too many points. Give me the Vikings.
NE -3.5
@ Mia: the Dolphins can give teams fits, tend to play fairly average ball, which tends to keep the averages down all around. Hard to buck that few points, though my model has it a NE victory by a slimmer 2 pts...:think: I'll take the Pats and hope this is one of those correction games.
Jac @ Phi -11.5: huge line but given the respective teams it seems reasonable. I have it 18-36, so I'll go with Philly and take the points.
Was @ Hou -2.5: I have to think this is more of a vote of confidence for the defensive pass rush of the Texans than it is a vote of no confidence for Washington, but any way you look at it unless RGIII shows flashes it could get uglier than that squeaker. I have a low scoring 7 point edge for Houston.
SF -4.5
@ Dal: Nervous game given how off SF has been offensively and the loss of a few key players, but then there's the allas Cowboys and that's a recipe for confidence building...I'd take SF but my model has it a by only a fg.
Car -1.5
@ TB: the model has the Panthers going away and by 9, but it really depends on if Cam plays and how, along with seeing how the talented Bucs do under a new administration.
Ind @ Den -6.5: the last time Peyton came home it didn't exactly go well for him, except for the applause of course...this time the odds makers like his team by a touchdown. My model says it's more like two fgs.
Gia @ Det -4.5: a team in disarray vs a team with everything to prove...I'll take the Lions by nearly 10.
SD @ Arz -3.5: the Chargers are like a box of chocolates on the road...so I'll play safe and go with the home team to cover.