NFL 2014

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Krsto

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So what?

In other news, I'm never picking against Seattle at home ever again. Green Bay looked tentative, intimidated, and inconsistent.

Green Bay defensive lineman Mike Daniels: "I think that you get wake-up calls, and then you get drill sergeant, kick-you-out-of-the-bed calls, and I think we just got kicked out of the bed onto a cement floor, and it hurt."
 

Town Heretic

Out of Order
Hall of Fame
Green Bay defensive lineman Mike Daniels: "I think that you get wake-up calls, and then you get drill sergeant, kick-you-out-of-the-bed calls, and I think we just got kicked out of the bed onto a cement floor, and it hurt."
The first week is a lot of adjustment and typically you'll see surprises if you're running a model to predict games because you have to make a lot of subjective valuations during the preseason.

That said, I had it:

GB 16
Sea 36

So I'm happy with the outcome. Doesn't change my overall prognostication about Seattle coming back to the pack. I'm debating trotting out predictions in this thread or starting another one for that and leaving this free for general discussion. :think:
 

Nick M

Plymouth Colonist
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The first week is a lot of adjustment and typically you'll see surprises if you're running a model to predict games because you have to make a lot of subjective valuations during the preseason.

The biggest improvement in all football teams at all levels of football is between the first and second game.
 

Nick M

Plymouth Colonist
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Oh, I think they get in, but I'm saying they get bounced in the divisional round. Same thing with the champs.

On the ESPN show Numbers Never Lie they pointed out how rare repeating is, and even more important, the last 8 Super Bowl champions failed to win one playoff game the next year.

Of course, Seattle looked more than good enough to break that streak. But numbers never lie.....
 

Granite

New member
Hall of Fame
On the ESPN show Numbers Never Lie they pointed out how rare repeating is, and even more important, the last 8 Super Bowl champions failed to win one playoff game the next year.

Of course, Seattle looked more than good enough to break that streak. But numbers never lie.....

You hate to cite history, sometimes, when it comes to football--too many variables on the field, what have you--but yeah, this particular streak looks almost insurmountable. As good as Seattle looked on Thursday, I'm convinced someone's eventually going to figure them out. The longer the season goes on the more film other teams have to look at...they won't be able to get away with that jet sweep play every single week.
 

Town Heretic

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The biggest improvement in all football teams at all levels of football is between the first and second game.
Yeah. It usually takes me about six to eight games to zero in enough to feel really comfortable with my line picks. I'll hit and miss early then nail it down the stretch to come in, most years, in the upper 80s against the line.

Here are the games for the week with lines and my model predictions:

GB -5.5 @ Sea: I had Seattle by 17 so that was a win.

NO @ Atl -1.5: I can't figure the Falcons being a favorite with their line problems and an ongoing question mark at RB and on the defensive side of things. I like the Saints by 6 so I'll take those points.

Buf @ Chi -6.5: I'd have taken 7 so I'm in the Bears camp and taking the points. Cutler has a lot of weapons and the Bills offense is just what Chicago's defense should be able to handle.

Cin @ Bal -2.5: makes sense given the Bengals tendency to be great at home and shabby on the road, but I'm taking a leap of faith in what I have down as a pick'em game and taking Cin and the points.

Cle @ Pit -5.5: game one in the march to Johnny Football's era should see the Steelers easily cover.

Ten @ KC -6.5: I have the Chiefs covering and then some.

Oak @ Jet -4.5: so that's what it takes to see the Jests as a favorite...I have it five, but the question mark at QB could turn this one either way. I'll stay with New York and worry.

Min @ SL -6.5: with the Rams qb in back up mode that's too many points. Give me the Vikings.

NE -3.5 @ Mia: the Dolphins can give teams fits, tend to play fairly average ball, which tends to keep the averages down all around. Hard to buck that few points, though my model has it a NE victory by a slimmer 2 pts...:think: I'll take the Pats and hope this is one of those correction games.

Jac @ Phi -11.5: huge line but given the respective teams it seems reasonable. I have it 18-36, so I'll go with Philly and take the points.

Was @ Hou -2.5: I have to think this is more of a vote of confidence for the defensive pass rush of the Texans than it is a vote of no confidence for Washington, but any way you look at it unless RGIII shows flashes it could get uglier than that squeaker. I have a low scoring 7 point edge for Houston.

SF -4.5 @ Dal: Nervous game given how off SF has been offensively and the loss of a few key players, but then there's the allas Cowboys and that's a recipe for confidence building...I'd take SF but my model has it a by only a fg.

Car -1.5 @ TB: the model has the Panthers going away and by 9, but it really depends on if Cam plays and how, along with seeing how the talented Bucs do under a new administration.

Ind @ Den -6.5: the last time Peyton came home it didn't exactly go well for him, except for the applause of course...this time the odds makers like his team by a touchdown. My model says it's more like two fgs.

Gia @ Det -4.5: a team in disarray vs a team with everything to prove...I'll take the Lions by nearly 10.

SD @ Arz -3.5: the Chargers are like a box of chocolates on the road...so I'll play safe and go with the home team to cover.
 

Granite

New member
Hall of Fame
A workmanlike effort by the Pats gets the job done.

In the Raiders-Jets match we'll see that one team is way worse than suspected.

Atlanta gets lit up like a Christmas tree. (They're the Chargers of the NFC.)

The Jason Garrett Death March begins.
 

Krsto

Well-known member
You hate to cite history, sometimes, when it comes to football--too many variables on the field, what have you--but yeah, this particular streak looks almost insurmountable. As good as Seattle looked on Thursday, I'm convinced someone's eventually going to figure them out. The longer the season goes on the more film other teams have to look at...they won't be able to get away with that jet sweep play every single week.

Meanwhile the Hawks are trying to figure out how to give Percy Harvin a chance to get up to full running speed where no one can catch him.
 

Daniel1611

New member
Dem Stillers need to get it together. I'm not happy with them right now. I'm gonna call Mike and ask what the heck he's doin'
 

PKevman

New member
One of these 6 teams will win the Super Bowl: Denver, New England, Indianapolis, San Francisco, New Orleans, Seattle. My preseason picks are New Orleans Vs. Denver with Denver winning. Furthermore I like the Broncos chances of going undefeated.
 

tetelestai

LIFETIME MEMBER
LIFETIME MEMBER
Can't wait to see dem Stillers in full action tomorrow.

Well....a win is a win is a win.

What the heck did the Brown's coach say at halftime? Was Knute Rockne in the locker room?

Steelers can go to 2-0 and put Baltimore in an 0-2 hole this Thursday.

Ravens vs. Steelers is always fun, especially prime time.
 

Daniel1611

New member
Well....a win is a win is a win.

What the heck did the Brown's coach say at halftime? Was Knute Rockne in the locker room?

Steelers can go to 2-0 and put Baltimore in an 0-2 hole this Thursday.

Ravens vs. Steelers is always fun, especially prime time.

I love when they play the Ravens. Always an intense game because of the rivalry.
 

tetelestai

LIFETIME MEMBER
LIFETIME MEMBER
12-4, AFC title game. Pittsburgh gets bounced in the first round.:wave2:

You're wrong again.

Pittsburgh didn't make the playoffs last year.

How long as hit been since the Patriots won a Super Bowl?

HINT: The Steelers have won 2 Super Bowls since the Patriots last won a Super Bowl.
 
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