Bob talks a lot... without saying much. It's amazing. What are the odds of that?
What are the odds that something will happen? Anything at all? Just about 100% I'd say. What are the odds that something a bit more specific happens? Like, for instance, something happening within the Milky Way galaxy? Again, probably 100%. But, the more specific you get, the less likely *that particular event* is likely to happen. Every thing that happens is *a specific event that can be given enough criteria to differentiate it from every other specific event that has every happened, and probably ever will* (ie: we could always add the time that it happened, and that limits it significantly). Now, before every event happens, the odds that that specific event will happen is very slim. Probably just about 0%, actually.
You may be saying (not you, the other guy) that this is stupid. If I'm about to flip a quarter, then the odds that it comes up heads is NOT almost 0%. But that's not what I'm saying. I'm saying the *precise event*. Not just "getting a head on a flip of a quarter" -- but having the quarter take the exact path through space *and time* hitting the exact molecules in the exact same way take the exact amount of time in its travel to hit your hand in the exact same spot on your hand while the universe is in the exact same configuration as it was. That's exact. Now, the odds of that happening exactly like that is about... 0%. But, it happened. And it happens all the time. Why? Because the odds that something will occur does not affect whether or not that thing will occur (yikes, QM hurts my head). It just affects our prediction of that thing. So, to say that something COULDN'T HAVE HAPPENED because it is ALMOST IMPOSSIBLE THAT IT WOULD HAPPEN is ignorant. Everything that happens is almost impossible. But things happen all the time.
Another thing to keep in mind is the anthropic principle. This basically says that if something didn't happen, we wouldn't be asking what the odds were that it happened. More specifically, if we weren't here, we wouldn't be asking what the odds of us being here was.
So, Bob doesn't get science, and he doesn't get probability. I think talking about the Bible was a good profession for him. :chuckle:
--ZK
Follow Up:
Bob noted that it's practically impossible for the letters "abcdefghijklmnopqrstuvwxyz" to show up in his random character generator program (evolve). I agree. But, that order has EXACTLY the same probability of showing up as does "aeatwmgccakbgpgpqbsbuxawiq" -- BUT, that's exactly what I got after running the program for less than 1 second. Wow. Cool, huh? Something practically impossible just happened.
What are the odds that something will happen? Anything at all? Just about 100% I'd say. What are the odds that something a bit more specific happens? Like, for instance, something happening within the Milky Way galaxy? Again, probably 100%. But, the more specific you get, the less likely *that particular event* is likely to happen. Every thing that happens is *a specific event that can be given enough criteria to differentiate it from every other specific event that has every happened, and probably ever will* (ie: we could always add the time that it happened, and that limits it significantly). Now, before every event happens, the odds that that specific event will happen is very slim. Probably just about 0%, actually.
You may be saying (not you, the other guy) that this is stupid. If I'm about to flip a quarter, then the odds that it comes up heads is NOT almost 0%. But that's not what I'm saying. I'm saying the *precise event*. Not just "getting a head on a flip of a quarter" -- but having the quarter take the exact path through space *and time* hitting the exact molecules in the exact same way take the exact amount of time in its travel to hit your hand in the exact same spot on your hand while the universe is in the exact same configuration as it was. That's exact. Now, the odds of that happening exactly like that is about... 0%. But, it happened. And it happens all the time. Why? Because the odds that something will occur does not affect whether or not that thing will occur (yikes, QM hurts my head). It just affects our prediction of that thing. So, to say that something COULDN'T HAVE HAPPENED because it is ALMOST IMPOSSIBLE THAT IT WOULD HAPPEN is ignorant. Everything that happens is almost impossible. But things happen all the time.
Another thing to keep in mind is the anthropic principle. This basically says that if something didn't happen, we wouldn't be asking what the odds were that it happened. More specifically, if we weren't here, we wouldn't be asking what the odds of us being here was.
So, Bob doesn't get science, and he doesn't get probability. I think talking about the Bible was a good profession for him. :chuckle:
--ZK
Follow Up:
Bob noted that it's practically impossible for the letters "abcdefghijklmnopqrstuvwxyz" to show up in his random character generator program (evolve). I agree. But, that order has EXACTLY the same probability of showing up as does "aeatwmgccakbgpgpqbsbuxawiq" -- BUT, that's exactly what I got after running the program for less than 1 second. Wow. Cool, huh? Something practically impossible just happened.
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