Chances of a Republican Winning Presidential Election

[Ktoyou]

Chances of a Republican Winning Presidential Election, Based on state office patterns.
States more likely to vote Republican: ( large voting states)
Texas
Florida
Pennsylvania
Ohio
North Carolina
Georgia
Virginia
Michigan
Indiana
Tennessee
States more likely to vote Democrat:
California
New York
Illinois
Washington
Massachusetts
Maryland
Minnesota




https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/114th_United_States_Congress#/media/File:US_House_2014.svg

 

[Nick M]

I don't actually care if it is demoncrat or re-publican, as long as the person does what is right. Which rules out most Ds and Rs.

 

[TracerBullet]

Chances of a Republican Winning Presidential Election, Based on state office patterns.
States more likely to vote Republican: ( large voting states)
Texas
Florida
Pennsylvania
Ohio
North Carolina
Georgia
Virginia
Michigan
Indiana
Tennessee
States more likely to vote Democrat:
California
New York
Illinois
Washington
Massachusetts
Maryland
Minnesota




https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/114th_United_States_Congress#/media/File:US_House_2014.svg

the problem is that you are looking at results skewed by gerrymandering

In most of teh states you list the voting districts are skewed to faovr republicans and in these states democratic candidates garnered more votes than republicans but the republicans hold more congresional seats

Earlier this year the Supreme Court ruled in favor of Michigan voters taking the power to draw congressional district lines away from the state, republican controlled government. In 2014 Michigan Democratic house candidates received 58% of the vote but won only 4 of the 14 seats in congress.

 

[TracerBullet]

The chance of a republican being elected president in 2016 is slim to none.

The main problem is the "blue wall"
The Blue Wall is a block of 23 states that no Republican Presidential candidate can realistically hope to win.


California, New York, Illinois, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin, New Mexico, Maryland, Delaware, Vermont, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Iowa, Maine, Nevada, Hawaii, Oregon Washington state and Washington DC.

These states have a collective 263 electoral votes. (It takes 270 electoral votes to win the presidency)

The republicans have their own set of states where it is highly improbable that a democratic presidential candidate would win:

Texas, Indiana, Kentucky, Georgia, Tennessee, South Carolina Mississippi, Alabama, Louisiana, Arkansas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska, South Dakota, North Dakota, West Virginia, Montana, Wyoming, Utah, Idaho and Alaska
But these only give the republican candidate 179 electoral votes.

There are 6 states that are “swing” states, they have the potential to go either way in a presidential election
Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, Colorado, Arizona.

To win the White House a republican has to carry all of the swing states but a democrat only has to win one of them.

 

[aikido7]

The chance of a republican being elected president in 2016 is slim to none.

The main problem is the "blue wall"
The Blue Wall is a block of 23 states that no Republican Presidential candidate can realistically hope to win.


California, New York, Illinois, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin, New Mexico, Maryland, Delaware, Vermont, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Iowa, Maine, Nevada, Hawaii, Oregon Washington state and Washington DC.

These states have a collective 263 electoral votes. (It takes 270 electoral votes to win the presidency)

The republicans have their own set of states where it is highly improbable that a democratic presidential candidate would win:

Texas, Indiana, Kentucky, Georgia, Tennessee, South Carolina Mississippi, Alabama, Louisiana, Arkansas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska, South Dakota, North Dakota, West Virginia, Montana, Wyoming, Utah, Idaho and Alaska
But these only give the republican candidate 179 electoral votes.

There are 6 states that are “swing” states, they have the potential to go either way in a presidential election
Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, Colorado, Arizona.

To win the White House a republican has to carry all of the swing states but a democrat only has to win one of them.

It remains to be seen. They said the same thing about Reagan and Obama. The people in both those cases spoke loud and clear.

I am hoping for a Trump sweep. And then it all depends on Trump's ground game against who the Democratic candidate is.

 

[chrysostom]

The chance of a republican being elected president in 2016 is slim to none.

The main problem is the "blue wall"
The Blue Wall is a block of 23 states that no Republican Presidential candidate can realistically hope to win.


California, New York, Illinois, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin, New Mexico, Maryland, Delaware, Vermont, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Iowa, Maine, Nevada, Hawaii, Oregon Washington state and Washington DC.

These states have a collective 263 electoral votes. (It takes 270 electoral votes to win the presidency)

The republicans have their own set of states where it is highly improbable that a democratic presidential candidate would win:

Texas, Indiana, Kentucky, Georgia, Tennessee, South Carolina Mississippi, Alabama, Louisiana, Arkansas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska, South Dakota, North Dakota, West Virginia, Montana, Wyoming, Utah, Idaho and Alaska
But these only give the republican candidate 179 electoral votes.

There are 6 states that are “swing” states, they have the potential to go either way in a presidential election
Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, Colorado, Arizona.

To win the White House a republican has to carry all of the swing states but a democrat only has to win one of them.

this is true
here is a picture of the red vs blue states
but
you don't mention how a republican can get into the white house
it isn't easy
somewhere I read
thanks to the abortion issue, we have a conservative court
it made me mad to read something like that
but
it is true
without the religious wackos and the mexicans
a republican has no chance at all

 

[chrysostom]

hillary could be the first woman president
women elect democrats
we call it the gender gap
plus the following groups who vote democrat
unions
teachers
blacks
environmentalists
lawyers
government workers

this is why smart money has hillary winning it all
but
just to make sure

bill got trump to run and make the republicans look even worse

 

[TracerBullet]

It remains to be seen. They said the same thing about Reagan and Obama. The people in both those cases spoke loud and clear.

I am hoping for a Trump sweep. And then it all depends on Trump's ground game against who the Democratic candidate is.

both of Obama's wins were thanks to the blue wall

 

[TracerBullet]

this is true
here is a picture of the red vs blue states
but
you don't mention how a republican can get into the white house
it isn't easy
somewhere I read
thanks to the abortion issue, we have a conservative court
it made me mad to read something like that
but
it is true
without the religious wackos and the mexicans
a republican has no chance at all

maybe that says something about republican polices

 

[TracerBullet]

hillary could be the first woman president
women elect democrats
we call it the gender gap
plus the following groups who vote democrat
unions
teachers
blacks
environmentalists
lawyers
government workers

this is why smart money has hillary winning it all
but
just to make sure

bill got trump to run and make the republicans look even worse

I doubt that. The current batch of republican candidates are doing a fine job of looking bad all by themselves

 

[chrysostom]

I doubt that.

what do you doubt?

that clinton called trump
that trump is damaging the republicans
that trump is minimizing the media coverage of the hillary problems

 

[The Horn]

Electing another Republican candidate president next year would be absolutely disastrous for America and the world .
The GOP has gone so far right it's no longer "conservative " - it's regressive, atavistic, backward , primitive , reactionary , and just
plain dangerous .
The GOP should change its name to the Theocratic party . I'ts been hijacked by the religious right , and the evil Koch brothers, who are not even religious, just ruthless, greedy and power hungry have virtually bought the whole party and are trying to steal the election for their own nefarious purposes .
The few remaining Republican politicians with any sanity , decency and common sense have abandoned the GOP and joined the Democratic party .
There is not a single GOP candidate who is even remotely fit to be president , and they shouldn't even be in politics ,period . It's appalling that a crude, vulgar, loud mouthed and racist jerk like Donald Trump is gaining more support and enthusiasm than the other candidates .
When it comes to lies and corruption , the GOP politicians make Obama and Hillary Clinton look like rank amateurs !
Jeb Bush would be no better than his clueless buffoon of an older brother Dubya ; probably even worse .
Scott Walker is an incompetent and hopelessly corrupt GOP hack who is nothing but a puppet of the Koch brothers .
Mike Huckabee is an inbred Hillbilly Bible-thumping imbecile .
Most frightening of all is Ted Cruz , who is a Dominionist madman who is determined to turn America into the Christian equivalent of Iran or Saudi Arabia .
The Republican party is a catastrophe waiting to happen, and it must be stopped before it does too much harm to America and the world !

 

[chrysostom]

you can tell how worried they are

 

[TracerBullet]

what do you doubt?

that clinton called trump
that trump is damaging the republicans
that trump is minimizing the media coverage of the hillary problems

That Trump is the one making the rest of the Republican field look bad. They are doing a fine job all on their own

 

[Ktoyou]

In most of teh states you list the voting districts are skewed to faovr republicans and in these states democratic candidates garnered more votes than republicans but the republicans hold more congresional seats


Earlier this year the Supreme Court ruled in favor of Michigan voters taking the power to draw congressional district lines away from the state, republican controlled government. In 2014 Michigan Democratic house candidates received 58% of the vote but won only 4 of the 14 seats in congress.

A highly biased source.

 

[Ktoyou]

Electing another Republican candidate president next year would be absolutely disastrous for America and the world .
The GOP has gone so far right it's no longer "conservative " - it's regressive, atavistic, backward , primitive , reactionary , and just
plain dangerous .

You are just plain crazy:mmph:

 

[Ktoyou]

The chance of a republican being elected president in 2016 is slim to none.

The main problem is the "blue wall"
The Blue Wall is a block of 23 states that no Republican Presidential candidate can realistically hope to win.


California, New York, Illinois, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin, New Mexico, Maryland, Delaware, Vermont, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Iowa, Maine, Nevada, Hawaii, Oregon Washington state and Washington DC.

Pennsylvania and Michigan has voted mainly Republican in congress. Why assume the state will go otherwise in a general presidential election?

Texas and Florida rakes out California, and Ohio takes out Illinois. With left coast and Maryland, the states of North Carolina, Georgia and Virginia will overcome these. The rest you have listed will not equal the typical 'red states' the big states with low populations.

The Republican loss would be more a result of choosing a candidate who is not trustworthy. It would not be the result of states voting patterns.

 

[RevTestament]

Electing another Republican candidate president next year would be absolutely disastrous for America and the world .
The GOP has gone so far right it's no longer "conservative " - it's regressive, atavistic, backward , primitive , reactionary , and just
plain dangerous .
The GOP should change its name to the Theocratic party . I'ts been hijacked by the religious right , and the evil Koch brothers, who are not even religious, just ruthless, greedy and power hungry have virtually bought the whole party and are trying to steal the election for their own nefarious purposes .
The few remaining Republican politicians with any sanity , decency and common sense have abandoned the GOP and joined the Democratic party .
There is not a single GOP candidate who is even remotely fit to be president , and they shouldn't even be in politics ,period . It's appalling that a crude, vulgar, loud mouthed and racist jerk like Donald Trump is gaining more support and enthusiasm than the other candidates .
When it comes to lies and corruption , the GOP politicians make Obama and Hillary Clinton look like rank amateurs !
Jeb Bush would be no better than his clueless buffoon of an older brother Dubya ; probably even worse .
Scott Walker is an incompetent and hopelessly corrupt GOP hack who is nothing but a puppet of the Koch brothers .
Mike Huckabee is an inbred Hillbilly Bible-thumping imbecile .
Most frightening of all is Ted Cruz , who is a Dominionist madman who is determined to turn America into the Christian equivalent of Iran or Saudi Arabia .
The Republican party is a catastrophe waiting to happen, and it must be stopped before it does too much harm to America and the world !

What I see is a bunch of whiney adjectives with zilcho facts.
And the Democratic answer is Hillary?
C'mon. She has more scandals in her skeleton closet than you have pejorative adjectives for Republicans.
travelgate
Whitewater
sex cover ups
military arms deals while SoS
Muslims who leave employ of Clinton foundation for Al Queda etc
Benghazi fiasco
and now private email-gate

and you want the American people to vote in at least 4 more years of this? :rotfl:

 

[rocketman]

What I see is a bunch of whiney adjectives with zilcho facts.
And the Democratic answer is Hillary?
C'mon. She has more scandals in her skeleton closet than you have pejorative adjectives for Republicans.
travelgate
Whitewater
sex cover ups
military arms deals while SoS
Muslims who leave employ of Clinton foundation for Al Queda etc
Benghazi fiasco
and now private email-gate

and you want the American people to vote in at least 4 more years of this? :rotfl:

Ahhh yes, liberals do revel in lawlessness...of course they will vote for the felon.

 

[Alate_One]

Pennsylvania and Michigan has voted mainly Republican in congress. Why assume the state will go otherwise in a general presidential election?

Because congress doesn't reflect the popular vote, especially in a presidential election year.

When everyone votes, they vote democratic. There's only skew in the land area because democratic votes are highly concentrated in cities. Republicans tend to be more spread out. Stick gerrymandering on top of that and you have a really skewed congress.


The problem with Republican candidates is there really are no good ones running.