Trump pulls ahead of Hillary Clinton in Florida and Pennsylvania, tied in Ohio: poll

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Donald Trump pulls ahead of Hillary Clinton in Florida and Pennsylvania, tied in Ohio: poll
SOURCE: http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2016/jul/13/donald-trump-pulls-ahead-hillary-clinton-florida-a/

QUOTE:
Donald Trump, the presumptive GOP presidential nominee, has erased what had been an 8-point deficit to his Democratic rival Hillary Clinton in Florida to pull ahead in the state by 3 points, while holding a 2-point edge in Pennsylvania and running even in Ohio, according to polling released Wednesday.

In Florida, Mr. Trump was at 42 percent support to Mrs. Clinton’s 39 percent in the Quinnipiac polling, compared to a 47 percent to 39 percent lead for Mrs. Clinton in a Quinnipiac survey released last month.

In Pennsylvania, Mr. Trump led by 2 points, 43 percent to 41 percent. Last month, Mrs. Clinton had a 1-point , 42 percent to 41 percent, lead.

In Ohio, Mr. Trump and Mrs. Clinton were tied at 41 percent apiece. Last month, they were tied at 40 percent apiece.

“Donald Trump enters the Republican convention on a small roll in the three most important swing states in the country. He has wiped out Hillary Clinton’s lead in Florida, is on the upside of too-close to call races in Florida and Pennsylvania and is locked in a dead heat in Ohio”.....(snip)
 
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160713_gma_dowd2_0711_33x16_1600.jpg
 
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White House Watch
White House Watch: Trump 44%, Clinton 37%
Thursday, July 14, 2016
>> http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2016/white_house_watch

Just days before the Republican National Convention is expected to formally nominate him to run for president, Donald Trump has taken his largest lead yet over Hillary Clinton.

The latest Rasmussen Reports weekly White House Watch survey of Likely U.S. Voters finds Trump with 44% support to Clinton’s 37%. Thirteen percent (13%) favor some other candidate, and six percent (6%) are undecided.
 
gcthomas

gcthomas

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CatholicCrusader said:


Donald Trump pulls ahead of Hillary Clinton in Florida and Pennsylvania, tied in Ohio: poll
SOURCE: http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2016/jul/13/donald-trump-pulls-ahead-hillary-clinton-florida-a/

QUOTE:
Donald Trump, the presumptive GOP presidential nominee, has erased what had been an 8-point deficit to his Democratic rival Hillary Clinton in Florida to pull ahead in the state by 3 points, while holding a 2-point edge in Pennsylvania and running even in Ohio, according to polling released Wednesday.

In Florida, Mr. Trump was at 42 percent support to Mrs. Clinton’s 39 percent in the Quinnipiac polling, compared to a 47 percent to 39 percent lead for Mrs. Clinton in a Quinnipiac survey released last month.

In Pennsylvania, Mr. Trump led by 2 points, 43 percent to 41 percent. Last month, Mrs. Clinton had a 1-point , 42 percent to 41 percent, lead.

In Ohio, Mr. Trump and Mrs. Clinton were tied at 41 percent apiece. Last month, they were tied at 40 percent apiece.

“Donald Trump enters the Republican convention on a small roll in the three most important swing states in the country. He has wiped out Hillary Clinton’s lead in Florida, is on the upside of too-close to call races in Florida and Pennsylvania and is locked in a dead heat in Ohio”.....(snip)
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Take care with the limited precision of these polls — the sample error needs to be taken into account when the differences are small fractions of the overall sample.

With a specified ±3.1% to ±3.2% sample error for each candidate, and an additional ±0.3 due to the whole number rounding, you get ±3.2% to ±3.3%. For comparing TWO measurements, each with their own error, you add them in quadrature (square root of the sum of the squared errors) which ends up as close to ±5%.

So you should ignore any differences of 5% or less as likely artefacts of the polling. The best you can say here is "Trump advances to neck and neck, within the 5% precision of the poll". You can see why the pollsters tend not to mention sample error in their press releases. ;)
 
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gcthomas said:
Take care with the limited precision of these polls — the sample error needs to be taken into account when the differences are small fractions of the overall sample.

With a specified ±3.1% to ±3.2% sample error for each candidate, and an additional ±0.3 due to the whole number rounding, you get ±3.2% to ±3.3%. For comparing TWO measurements, each with their own error, you add them in quadrature (square root of the sum of the squared errors) which ends up as close to ±5%.

So you should ignore any differences of 5% or less as likely artefacts of the polling. The best you can say here is "Trump advances to neck and neck, within the 5% precision of the poll". You can see why the pollsters tend not to mention sample error in their press releases. ;)
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Also - - The only polls that really matter I suppose are the ones on battleground states.
But at least these polls here give you a sense of trends.
 
gcthomas

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CatholicCrusader said:
I can't go with Huff... ...don't trust them in the slightest
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What do you know about their methods? Rejecting them because you don't like their news coverage for political reasons is a bit weak.

They publish their methods, unlike most poll trackers. They include ALL polls that meet the all national standards for polling, and not a hand selected sample such as in the OP, they combine them with a model which uses a Monte Carlo method that allows them to correct for systemic differences between different pollsters, and their win probability figure also takes into account the day to day variability and the time remaining to the election.

Do you have a favourite poll aggregator that does a better and more open job?
 
Catholic Crusader

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No Republican has won the White House without winning Ohio. Ohioans love to remind us that they choose the presidents. So, this poll is a poll to watch:

LOCAL:
Polls: Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump still tied in Ohio
LINK: Cincinnati Enquirer

Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton remain tied in quintessential swing state Ohio, two new polls say, as Ohioans doubt Clinton's moral superiority over Trump.

In a head-to-head race, the two candidates are tied at 41 percent each in Ohio, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released Wednesday..........
 
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Voters Drawn More to GOP’s Convention Than to Democrats’
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/pub...wn_more_to_gop_s_convention_than_to_democrats

Tuesday, July 19, 2016

Voters are more likely to watch some of this week’s Republican National Convention where Donald Trump is expected to be nominated than next week’s Democratic National Convention where Hillary Clinton is likely to triumph.......
.....The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on July 14 and 17, 2016 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.....
 
J

jgarden

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CatholicCrusader said:


Voters Drawn More to GOP’s Convention Than to Democrats’
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/pub...wn_more_to_gop_s_convention_than_to_democrats

Tuesday, July 19, 2016

Voters are more likely to watch some of this week’s Republican National Convention where Donald Trump is expected to be nominated than next week’s Democratic National Convention where Hillary Clinton is likely to triumph.......
.....The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on July 14 and 17, 2016 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.....
Click to expand...
Ohio, where the Convention is being held, is considered to be an important "swing state."

The fact that its popular Governor, a Republican and former presidential candidate, refuses to attend the Convention in his own state, speaks volumes as to how deep the animosity exists between Trump and those he has demeaned during the primaries.

His "take no prisoners" approach may have gotten him the GOP presidential nomination, but it had come at a high price - the support of many of those key individuals in the Party whom he will now need to win those important "swing states!"
 
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jgarden said:
..........The fact that its popular Governor, a Republican and former presidential candidate, refuses to attend the Convention speaks volumes as to how deep the animosity exists between Trump and those he has demeaned......
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It speaks to the fact that the governor is a being a JERK and needs to pull his head out of his butt. It's all on him, not Trump.
 
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