Shocking poll results from Trump country

[The Barbarian]

This is probably not accurate. If the republicans can't win in this heavily-gerrymandered district, they'll have trouble winning anywhere. National republicans are pouring money into the race, and even Trump has come in a last-ditch effort to reverse the trend. Maybe it will be enough. I think it will, but it's a shock that even in this district where Trump won handily, the republican candidate is in trouble.

Democrat Conor Lamb has pulled ahead of Republican Rick Saccone, according to an Emerson College poll conducted from March 1st through 3rd. Lamb has a slim lead, enjoying an approval rating of 48 percent to Saccone’s 45 percent, in a sign that Pennsylvania’s special election could see a Democrat upset.

Pennsylvania’s 18th District Special Congressional election has “garnered a lot of voting excitement,” the survey notes. 56 percent of those polled say they’re “very excited to vote,” while only 7 percent said they’re “not very excited at all.” Lamb’s positive image in the district appears to be helping matters:

Lamb has a positive image in the district, with 48% saying they have a favorable opinion and a 33% unfavorable rating – 15% of voters had heard of him but had no opinion. Saccone is not as popular with a 44% favorable and a 40% unfavorable rating – 15% of voters had heard of him but had no opinion.

Lamb leads 57% to 40% in Allegheny County, which is expected to account for about 42% of the vote. Saccone leads in Westmoreland County 51% to 42%, a county that comprises about 33% of the vote. Saccone leads in Washington County 46% to 41%, which make up about 22% of the vote.

The possibility that a Democrat could win a seat in a district then-candidate Donald Trump won handily in 2016 is a very real one, and more and more Congressional Republicans have shared fears that Trumpian backlash could affect their chances at maintaining their majority in this year’s midterm elections.

Last month, for example, Linda Howlett Belcher, a Democrat and two-time member of the Kentucky state legislature, bested her Republican challenger 68 percent to 32 percent in a special election. That victory came on the heels of similar ones in Alabama and Virginia that appear to be harbingers of things to come as midterms draw nearer.
https://secondnexus.com/news/poll-conor-lamb-ahead-rick-saccone-pa-special-election/

 

[The Barbarian]

Republicans are already pointing fingers in Pennsylvania’s special election.

Conor Lamb, a Democrat, shouldn’t have a shot in Pennsylvania’s 18th District. The district voted for Mitt Romney by 17 points in 2012 and for Donald Trump in 2016. But with less than 24 hours until polls open, Lamb is neck-and-neck with Rick Saccone, the Republican running to fill the seat of Tim Murphy, who resigned after it was revealed that he had a mistress and had asked her to have an abortion.

Lamb has run an effective, gaffe-free campaign designed at winning over Republican-leaning voters. He has also distanced himself from Nancy Pelosi, expressed support for gun ownership, and has walked a tightrope on abortion—which he says he personally opposes, although he doesn’t support legislation to change the status quo. But the biggest reason PA-18 is a toss-up is that Donald Trump is enormously unpopular—particularly among college-educated voters, who are well-represented in the district. Saccone may ultimately prevail, but that doesn’t change the likely takeaway from the election: that Democrats could retake the House of Representatives in the 2018 midterms.

If Saccone does lose, Trump is already hinting that he will blame the candidate and absolve himself of any responsibility. On Sunday, Axios’s Jonathan Swan reported that “Trump thinks Saccone is a terrible, ‘weak’ candidate.” Citing Saccone’s lackluster fundraising, Republicans are arguing that if Saccone loses he has no one to blame but himself.
https://newrepublic.com/minutes/147...inting-fingers-pennsylvanias-special-election

 

[The Barbarian]

At a rally with Lamb at the United Steelworkers headquarters in downtown Pittsburgh on Friday, Democratic Rep. Mike Doyle, the dean of the state’s congressional delegation, marveled at how much Republicans had spent on the race.

“The president comes in for his second visit, the vice president has been here, Ivanka’s been here, cabinet secretaries have been here, 10 kitchen sinks have been thrown here, $15 million has been spent here, and that Marine is still standing,” Doyle exclaimed.

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/20...-and-Boy-I-Hope-We-re-Laughing-Tomorrow-Night

 

[jgarden]

Shocking poll results from Trump country

The Good News for Republicans: Rick Saccone doesn't have a history of cruising the malls picking up underage girls!

The Bad News for Republicans: Conor Lamb, a military veteran, is a young, articulate, charismatic candidate who may benefit from suburban, college educated and women's vote that were critical in the Alabama senate race. This boundaries of this District will be realigned for the 2018 Interims in November, so the $ millions spent by Republicans signifies the results though important, are largely symbolic!

 

[The Barbarian]

Lamb has quite a struggle to overcome the resistance in this district, which was Gerrymandered carefully to make a safe republican district. It was so blatant that the state Supreme Court overturned the scheme; the district won't exist in a few months.

 

[patrick jane]

Trump country is over half this nation, barb. You've had rough patch lately huh?

 

[The Barbarian]

Trump country if over half this nation

About 3 million short of half, last time.

barb. You've gad rough patch lately huh?

Trump has, it seems. First he campaigns against Roy Moore, and Moore wins. Then he endorses Roy Moore, and Moore loses. Then loses in one by-election after another.

And now, in a district he won by 20 points, a democrat has a chance to take from him.

It still seems impossible to me, but the last poll has the democrat up by 6 points. If Trump can't have his way there, it's a devastating loss for the republicans.

There's still a good chance the republicans can pull it out. The national party has poured over ten million dollars into the race, and numerous republican leaders, including Trump have gone there and put their credibility on the line to salvage a win.

It might not be enough.

 

[rexlunae]

Trump country if over half this nation, barb. You've gad rough patch lately huh?

It's true. Trump country is a lot bigger:

 

[rexlunae]

This is gonna be close.

 

[The Barbarian]

With 98% of the polls in, Lamb is leading by less than 1000 votes. I'm surprised that he's still in it, much less leading.

This has to be a devastating blow to the republicans, who expected this to be a cakewalk in a district Gerrymandered to make a safe republican seat.

It looks as though the polls have underestimated the anger Americans have for the way the country has been mismanaged by republicans.

 

[The Barbarian]

With 99% of the polls in, Lamb still has a lead of less than 1000 votes. Recount seems likely. Republicans are already pointing fingers and blaming each other.

Even if Lamb doesn't win, it's a humiliation for Trump and a harbinger of things to come.

 

[The Barbarian]

100% of polls in, Lamb winning by less than 600 votes.

Unless we see a lot of dead people voting absentee for the republican, (as happened in 2018) another disaster for Trump.

I was really expecting Lamb to lose this one, albeit by a close margin. The bad news for republicans is this Gerrymandered district didn't pass the smell test, and has been outlawed. There will be a less crooked apportionment for the next election.

 

[rexlunae]

There are still about 1400 ballots out, all in the Trumpier part of the district, but the margin Saccone would need is probably out of reach. Still really close.

 

[The Barbarian]

Looks like yet another Trump defeat. He put everything he had into it, including ten million dollars to sway the district, but the Marine is still standing. Given the demographics in this district Trump's guy should have won in double digits. I really thought Lamb would lose.

So much loss, republicans are getting frantic.

 

[jgarden]

Trump country is over half this nation, barb. You've had rough patch lately huh?

Under normal circumstances a "robust economy, low unemployment, tax reform passed and an infusion of over $10 million in GOP funding for attack adds should all guarantee an easy Republican victory in a "deep red" district!

Given that Trump won this district by over 20 points during the 2016 Election, there are now potentially at least 100 Republicans holding seats in the House that are now vulnerable, because they all won by a closer margin!

 

[The Barbarian]

It’s official: Democrat Conor Lamb wins Pennsylvania special election in major upset
https://www.vox.com/policy-and-poli...cial-election-conor-lamb-defeats-rick-saccone

I really didn't think it could happen. A district where democrats didn't even try to compete, where Trump and many other GOP leaders showed up to save the day, where outside organizations poured over $10 million into the race to save the seat, voted democrat.

Trump's last hope against impeachment depends on the republicans retaining a majority in the House. It looks pretty grim for him, right now.

 

[jgarden]

Shocking poll results from Trump country

Conor Lamb and his campaign presents the "model" for the Democrats to regain control of the House and possibly the Senate.
******************************************************************************
- a young, articulate, dynamic candidate in marked contrast to the Republican "older men in suits"
- a local candidate with name recognition that is respected in the community (able to withstand Republican smear campaigns)
- allow the candidate to define his own issues that resonate with voters in that district
- a strong candidate will not require outside "celebrities" to be "
parachuted" in to bolster his/her campaign
- strong core of motivated volunteers who believe in their candidate and can get out the vote
- allow the candidate to be critical of his/her own party

 

[rexlunae]

Looks like yet another Trump defeat. He put everything he had into it, including ten million dollars to sway the district, but the Marine is still standing. Given the demographics in this district Trump's guy should have won in double digits. I really thought Lamb would lose.

So much loss, republicans are getting frantic.

The question I have is, will it be enough to cause Paul Ryan's spine to regrow. I'm pretty sure he knows what the right thing to do is, and given these results, it might just save his party.

 

[The Barbarian]

The question I have is, will it be enough to cause Paul Ryan's spine to regrow. I'm pretty sure he knows what the right thing to do is, and given these results, it might just save his party.

It's a dilemma. Originally, the decision was to cater a bit to racists and neo-Nazis, thinking they could be controlled and satisfied with a bone tossed to them every now and then.

But now the republicans can't win without them, and they know they have the party captive. If he does the right thing, Ryan will likely be replaced before too long with someone more acceptable to David Duke.

 

[The Barbarian]

'No suburban district is safe and every candidate better be ready for the most difficult cycle of their career'

"It's really hard to see how anyone looks at the factors Republicans are facing at this time, and the environment Republicans are in, and conclude anything other than that we are heading for a very difficult cycle," a Republican strategist close to the race told Business Insider.

"The narrow margin in a district the president won handily should be a serious wake up call for Republican incumbents across the map," the person added late Tuesday night. "No suburban district is safe and every candidate better be ready for the most difficult cycle of their career."

There are roughly 120 House seats currently controlled by Republicans in districts that are not as solidly Republican as Pennsylvania's 18th Congressional District.

Lamb's results came on the heels of Democratic Sen. Doug Jones' shocking win in Alabama and big wins for the party in New Jersey and Virginia late last year. As of 12:30 a.m. on the East Coast, Lamb led Saccone by a slim margin of just more than 500 votes with only some absentee ballots outstanding. Lamb declared victory, and Democratic campaign groups followed suit.
http://www.businessinsider.com/conor-lamb-win-rick-saccone-trump-pennsylvania-results-panic-2018-3

It was more than just a referendum on Trump, there are serious issues that the republicans fumbled, which affect this area. But Sacone made it a referendum on Trump by declaring "I was Trump before Trump was Trump."

And the voters said "no thanks" in a district where Trump once won by 20 points.